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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

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borntobequiet · 19/07/2018 20:09

The party that can’t sort out pairing in the HoC is the party negotiating with the EU.

mathanxiety · 19/07/2018 20:09

If there is an understanding that pairing is not applicable when a vote of high political significance is to happen, then nobody should assume pairing will be observed.

After this, obv there has been a considerable loss of trust, but I believe that the attitude should always be 'trust but verify' when it comes to important votes.

It's also obvious that the Tories can't even settle on one plausible narrative to cover their asses. What a bunch of incompetents.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 19/07/2018 20:10

I'm still mainly shouting obscenities at anything I read right now. In my head at least. I'm beginning to think there's some truth in this:

@haveigotnews
Archaeologists open mysterious black sarcophagus discovered in Egypt, on grounds that at this point, unleashing an ancient curse upon the world might actually improve things.

OlennasWimple · 19/07/2018 20:11

Breastfeeding in the Houses of Parliament

I can add, from personal experience, that ushers don't like admitting babies to the public gallery, but can be persuaded if you promise to leave if they make a murmur. I've breastfed in both public galleries and Central Lobby - nobody objected (possibly nobody noticed)

mathanxiety · 19/07/2018 20:12

How long before the birth do you start pairing and then when do you finish?

Oh those capricious women with their hormones all over the place expecting the poor menfolk to read their minds...

lonelyplanetmum · 19/07/2018 20:13

That bloke fluent in Portuguese, English, French and Spanish who's going to be taking away our sovereignty. Who does he think he is? He seems a bit foreign and kind of expert like to me.

SusanWalker · 19/07/2018 20:45

Listening to the Dutch spokesman on the news talking about the hiring of the customs officials, saying they'd rather have spent the money on nurses or police officers, I felt really sad and quite ashamed.

SusanWalker · 19/07/2018 20:47

Sorry meant to add that if we leave i cannot see any way back, we have caused so much trouble. Apart from if we stay in the single market, which according to the IMF will have a negligible affect on the EU 27, but rather more so in us.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 19/07/2018 20:49

Nice little pre Brexit appetiser

Northern Ireland close to recession, CBI warns as May visits region

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jul/19/northern-ireland-close-recession-cbi-warns-may-visits-region

keyboardkate · 19/07/2018 20:52

That's the hubris of the UK Government @Susan. And that kind of prep applies to ROI and lots of other places too. Their taxpayers do not want to have to do this either. They have other priorities.

But Brexies will say it is all the EU's fault. Like a mantra.

Uk appears to not consider their citizens anymore, just a power play now.

keyboardkate · 19/07/2018 20:57

Ghost,

Sadly Westminster do not give a shit about NI.They wish it would go away now, stat. But it won't and may be the rock upon which they perish. Well the DUP are a factor now obv and have to be kept onside.

Honestly what the fk is going on now for the citizens of UK?

I will only ask this... Qui Bono?

RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 21:08

The absolute state of this

Ros Altmann @ rosaltmann
I've asked some Parliamentary QUestions about impact of 'No Deal' #Brexit - replies are truly frightening. We don't seem to know what will happen, let alone have plans for the catastrophic consequences - will tweet the replies shortly

Ros Altmann @ rosaltmann
Gov reply to my qn abt 'NoDeal' impact on NHS cancer patients and radiotherapy says Gov only just now doing a 'risk assessment for NHS medicines/treatments' to 'identify' issues. These materials can't be stockpiled & if we leave EU we can't import
www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Lords/2018-07-02/HL9119/

RTB Brexitese translation: The dog ate our homework and we haven't thought about it yet. Signed Steve Baker the former minister for No Deal.

Ros Altmann @ rosaltmann
Qn abt impact of No Deal on auto industry supply chains suggests no plan to secure the competitiveness of our car plants.
www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Lords/2018-07-02/HL9120/
Gov just says it has spoken to industry and aims to help UK suppliers improve competitiveness by 2022!

From link
"The Government recognises the importance these integrated supply chains play in maintaining the competitiveness of the UK automotive industry. There has been extensive cross-government engagement with key stakeholders across the automotive sector since the referendum, which has informed and continues to inform our thinking."

Brexitese to English translation: we had no fucking clue what we were talking about before.

Ros Altmann @ rosaltmann
Gov asked its intentions to protect Northern Ireland businesses if there is No Deal suggests we should read the White Paper!
www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Lords/2018-07-03/HL9149/
White Paper is only UK wishlist, not an agreement!

RTB Brexitese translation:
What was the question again? Oh Ireland, don't we own it all? We don't? Uh ERM... Oh well backstop? Err we are avoiding talking about that one cos it's a bit difficult, and we plan to fuck the DUP. But we need them to not find out until it's too late cos they are rather stroppy types. And they scare us, cos unlike us, they know how to drive a hard deal.

Ros Altmann @ rosaltmann
Interesting reply on continued EEA/EFTA membership. If there is No Deal, we leave EEA immediately in Mar 2019. If there is a deal and transition period, we remain members till transition ends.

www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Lords/2018-07-02/HL9121/

RTB: This interesting. Crack a load of this:

The UK has made clear both in public and during discussions with the EEA EFTA states that we will be leaving the European Economic Area (EEA). Continued participation in the EEA Agreement beyond the implementation period would not pass the tests that the Prime Minister set out for our future economic partnership with the EU in that it would not deliver control of our borders or our laws.

In the absence of any further action, the EEA Agreement will no longer operate in respect of the UK when we leave the EU in March 2019.

However, at the March European Council we agreed with the EU that the UK is to be treated as a Member State for the purposes of international agreements for the duration of the implementation period; this includes the EEA Agreement.

Once the implementation period ends, the EEA Agreement will no longer apply to the UK. We will seek to put in place new arrangements with these countries for the end of the implementation period.

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keyboardkate · 19/07/2018 21:14

There will be a deal.

I have to focus on that now.

A crash out is imponderable. Does anyone agree?

GhostofFrankGrimes · 19/07/2018 21:21

A crash out is imponderable. Does anyone agree?

I used to think that but we a so close to the cliff edge, the Tories so devious and politics so unstable (Trump) it really is possible. Most frighteningly there are still enough acolytes who support Brexit even though they know it will be shit (for a decade or two).

Mrsr8 · 19/07/2018 21:22

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Missingthesea · 19/07/2018 21:26

frumpety Yes, an NI number is allocated ready for future use when Child Benefit is claimed for a child. If it is never claimed, then an interview is done to make sure the young person is entitled to an NI number, then it is issued asap.

HTH.

SusanWalker · 19/07/2018 21:33

I can't remember which programme i heard this on now, but someone said that the ERG have been holding fire to get the withdrawal bill through parliament. Now that has royal assent the gloves are off and they are planning to frustrate everything they can so we can crash out. And I think the ERG are fanatical enough to do this.

Now if we had a decent PM who was not trying to fudge her way through the process I might think they could be seen off. But I'm not sure. So far she is giving into them at every turn. And the whole tariff thing from the white paper that she was trying to (not) explain to Yvette Cooper made no sense. I really feel we could crash out now.

Fuckity fuck.

SusanWalker · 19/07/2018 21:34

So you all still have your NI cards? I lost mine years ago.

keyboardkate · 19/07/2018 21:34

Well back in my bunker I go now!

I am not going to have a hissy or anything, but honestly, the whole issue seems to be predicated on Tory Party issues, not the good of the people (note I did not say the Will of the people).

Who is representing us now? meaning the ordinary person...It is all just so frustrating that our lives are being dictated to by a rump in the Tories. It seems to be all about them and their internal factions and infighting.

Not much about us though. Sad.

Labour are not much better TBH so we are between a rock and a hard place.

I am sad and very wary. But the optimist in me suggests that somehow a deal will be done. The alternative is just Armageddon for the ordinary person really.

Stockpiling? Good Lord. I never thought I would see that advocated outside of a real war time situation. Awful.

frumpety · 19/07/2018 21:39

Missing that does help thank you , I think it was the fact that she was interviewed without either of her parents being allowed in the room and being asked how long she was intending staying in the UK that made me Hmm

RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 21:45

twitter.com/DanielCollins85/status/1019810292686041091

This is a pretty compelling thread on how people in NI are not as well off as those in the Republic.

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Plonkysaurus · 19/07/2018 21:46

kate I'm also clinging to hope. Anyone with a braincell can see that Brexit is bad for us. Brexit will hurt no matter which way it is done, but it doesn't have to be a catastrophe.

In a way I hope that the motion of no confidence is carried, that we have a snap election and pause the a50 clock during this time. Usher in a coalition that respects the rules of the house and either holds a second ref with 3 options on the ballot, or goes norway+.

We are being held to ransom by a handful of middle aged white men who can't see past their own noses. That is our problem, and that is what needs to change.

(I also note the depressingly ironic stance of my FIL, who continues to assert that the EU is a cabal because we can't leave without damaging ourselves, yet he finds the likes of JRM amusing and continually votes for the conservatives. Arsehole.)

keyboardkate · 19/07/2018 21:53

RTB, in fairness there is no link to those stats.

NI is primarily an agri/ PS entity. Not much more than that is evident from your post to be fair. Majorly propped up by grants from Central Gov. True.

I know you will not like this, but quoting Tweets at every turn is easy. Analysis is not so simple.

Missingthesea · 19/07/2018 22:01

frumpety Good grief, I used to carry out those interviews at our local social security office and a parent or whichever adult the child wanted there was always allowed in with them if they wished (some were happy to come alone, others weren't). That's awful if the rules have been changed Sad

Missingthesea · 19/07/2018 22:04

I remember one lad brought along his best mate for moral support and that was fine too Smile