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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

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DarlingNikita · 19/07/2018 18:27

Red, that FT link won't load. Could you perchance do a short summary?

BigChocFrenzy · 19/07/2018 18:32

Tory MP Philip Davies - you remember, the hateful J4MBshill - has gone public with his letter to the 1922 Chair:

cos it's all about him

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-philip-davies-letter-of-no-confidence-theresa-may-conservative-leadership-race-a8454286.html?

he has “lost trust” in her ability to deliver the EU referendum result.

keyboardkate · 19/07/2018 18:33

Kitten,

I think the EU will stand back and let the bullets fly (figuratively), for now. But I think it is up to the UK to get an agreement, not the EU. There is nothing EU can offer at the minute, in the midst of this chaos.

But I am hoping, that sooner or later the reality of all this will hit the Government and it will be negotiated. Time is tight though.

And I suppose Hard Brexiteers will continue to demand a hard exit, and will blame any hitch on the EU. Such arrogance! But anyway it's happening as we speak.

I'm not sure how to feel, except I live in hope for cool heads to see the way forward that will not impact on ordinary people's lives. The projections otherwise are quite terrifying really.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/07/2018 18:43

nikita Cut & paste of the important last few paras of red's FT link

The Irish ‘backstop’ offers a key to unlocking the Brexit impasse

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.ft.com/content/350519e2-8a91-11e8-b18d-0181731a0340" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.ft.com/content/350519e2-8a91-11e8-b18d-0181731a0340</a>


What’s needed here is some traditional European flexible thinking and can-kicking
so a backstop can be agreed which just meets the UK’s red lines,
but is so unpleasant for London it could never be seen as a desirable end state.
That is just possible.

It would involve a compromise from Brussels to allow the whole of the UK to stay in the EU’s customs union for the backstop, not just Northern Ireland.
But only the province would remain in the EU’s VAT administrative system and single market laws.

This combination would meet the UK’s requirement for no customs checks in the Irish Sea and,
if the regulatory controls were, in EU negotiator Michel Barnier’s words, “de-dramatised” in Belfast’s ports, this should prove acceptable.

But with Britain outside the EU’s VAT administration and single market,
customs declarations and regulatory friction would arise between Dover and Calais,
ensuring that no one in the UK would desire the backstop as the permanent relationship.

The EU27 would find themselves in an even stronger position than now.
By April, the UK would have left and paid its exit bill.
It would still be under great pressure to come to its senses on a final trade deal, the clock would still be ticking and the Irish border would be resolved.

To avoid a Brexit crisis this autumn, this set of compromises on the Irish backstop is the narrow path everyone must follow.
But we should recognise, we are close to falling off.

mathanxiety · 19/07/2018 18:43

I may be wrong wrt pairing, but iirc it is not allowed for votes of great political significance. Hence MPs being stretchered in for votes in previous parliaments.

www.ft.com/content/f3ef754e-7775-11e7-90c0-90a9d1bc9691
2017 FT article predicting more cut and thrust to this Parliamentary session as a result of Labour not likely to pair. Soames (Con) and McShane (former Lab) used to pair regularly.
Mr MacShane said that the tight parliamentary arithmetic and the lack of pairing would make the current parliament hard going for MPs. “This is going to be a dreadful, long slog parliament, being stuck there waiting to vote,” Mr MacShane said. “It gets wearing.”

It seems a pity to encourage women to become MPs and to allow them to take maternity leave and then to leave intact a situation where they can't vote by proxy, or pair.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/07/2018 18:45

Sounds indeed a possible solution, but the Ultras won't budge and inch,
so May would need to find her elusive backbone

BigChocFrenzy · 19/07/2018 18:49

math Pairs have traditionally been binding, whatever the importance of the vote.

The big difference with crucial votes is that one side or the other may refuse to agree a pair

  • I've posted before that I remember at least one Tory MP with cancer attending a vote to save Major's govt - however, once agreed, pairs should NOT be broken
BigChocFrenzy · 19/07/2018 18:52

People may not realise why the HoC has to take Paisley's breach of the rules so seriously.
Sounds like a technical matter, forgot the paperwork etc ?

the Times explains why it matters:

""Ian Paisley, the DUP MP, faces a record parliamentary ban after failing to declare £50,000 of holidays paid for by the Sri Lankan government
AND
then lobbying ministers to prevent an international investigation into that country's human rights violations"

DarlingNikita · 19/07/2018 18:56

Thank you, BigChoc!
Sounds complicated...

placemats · 19/07/2018 18:58

As I said a while back. There needs to be blood.

It's going to be shit post brexit going into service stations and the toilets haven't been cleaned.

mathanxiety · 19/07/2018 18:59

Pairing is an arrangement between two MPs of opposing parties to not vote in a particular division. This enables an MP to be absent without affecting the result of the vote as they effectively cancel each other out. Pairing is an informal arrangement which is not recognised by the House of Commons but must be registered with the Whips. Pairing is not allowed in divisions of great political importance.

From the parliament.uk website. www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/pairing/

All the different versions of what happened, and the political hay being made, show that either this^ is nonsense or nobody knows the rules.

I suspect the rules have traditionally been observed only in the breach, so to speak, and everyone is surprised that the chief whip suddenly decided to go all schoolmarm - in accord with the FT prediction - or they are trying to keep the controversy going as a distraction. McShane in the FT article was clear that the arrangement between MPs is up to the whips, implying that the whips can say 'No' to pairing.

RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 19:00

Plot twist on the pairing story:

Zach Brown @zachjourno
BREAKING: Here is the list of Tory MPs who were paired for the Customs Union vote on Tuesday: Damian Collins, Vicky Ford, Andrea Leadsom, Andrew Murrison & Tom Tugendhat. Quite a remainey bunch (bar Leadsom), who could well have voted with the rebels!

Ed Vaizey and George Freeman both abstained

If Smith told all the paired Tory MPs not to vote, as has been suggested, then Leadsom's comments in the HoC looks dodgy.

I would have thought that Vicky Ford would almost certainly have voted with the Rebels too - so that is potentially another vote lost.

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RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 19:02

Whilst the system is a custom not a rule, everyone needs to understand what the score is that vote rather than using the ambigity to fuck others over.

And its looking suspiciously like Leadsom might have deliberately lied and mislead the house.

Not that, lying to the house is abnormal these days.

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OlennasWimple · 19/07/2018 19:06

Good point, BigChoc. It's not just a "dog ate my declaration of interest homework" situation with the junior Paisley, is it?

And I agree on pairing. If Smith was sending out texts telling Tories to get in and vote, he should have told his opposite numbers in the Whips offices that pairing agreements were off. Then they could take a judgement call on whether to ask women with 11 day old babies to drop everything and come and vote, or take their chances with the sums working out

Buteo · 19/07/2018 19:08

Good explanation of pairing here, including why Heseltine was nicknamed "Tarzan" (hopefully no paywall):

www.ft.com/content/aac0112e-790c-11e7-a3e8-60495fe6ca71

BigChocFrenzy · 19/07/2018 19:10

Math Whips on either side can tell their MPs not to make pair agreements, but cannot tell them to break their word after having made an agreement.

There have always been quite a few misunderstandings, but this was clearly deliberate by Tory Whips to save May:
A few MPs said they were ordered to "break their pair" - but were honest enough to refuse

After this, any Opposition Party would be mad to trust to pairing

RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 19:14

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Tory website now calling for Smith to go

ConservativeHome @ConHome
The Chief Whip now lacks credibility
www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/the-chief-whip-now-lacks-credibility.html?utm_campaign=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter
The Chief Whip now lacks credibility

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RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 19:51

Nick Gutteridge @nick_gutteridge
For those who think the EU is actively trying to keep Britain in, here’s what one rather fed up diplomat said to me recently: ‘It’s got to the stage when we say if it’s a hard Brexit, it’s a hard Brexit. We’re just keen to get it over and done with now.’

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RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 19:55

Hayley Barlow @Hayley_Barlow
"I'm absolutely assured that @BrandonLewis did not know that that he was paired with her [@joswinson] and did not know he was breaking the pair" @andrealeadsom tells @cathynewman on #c4news
In the last 15 mins

Nicholas Watt @nicholaswatt
One former Tory minister has this take on pairing row: The mistake @JulianSmithUK made was to arrange pairing with a pregnant lady. Ladies have been having babies in this place for donkeys years. They never needed pairing before now
[@joswinson gave birth earlier this month]
The Tory continued: The problem with pairing with a pregnant lady is where do you draw the line. How long before the birth do you start pairing and then when do you finish?
And the Tory added: Presumably it continues while they are breast feeding. Why can’t they just breast feed here? There are plenty of rooms

Well about that...

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Mrsr8 · 19/07/2018 19:59

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

lonelyplanetmum · 19/07/2018 20:03

We tick some of these boxes..

foreignpolicy.com/2012/06/18/10-reasons-countries-fall-apart/

OlennasWimple · 19/07/2018 20:06

where do you draw the line. How long before the birth do you start pairing and then when do you finish?

Please sir! I know the answer to this one!

It starts when the MP goes on maternity leave and ends when they return to work, unless otherwise agreed.

Phew - glad we've got that sorted

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 19/07/2018 20:08

where do you draw the line. How long before the birth do you start pairing and then when do you finish?

It starts when the MP goes on maternity leave and ends when they return to work, unless otherwise agreed.

You know, like every other workplace has to deal with.

keyboardkate · 19/07/2018 20:08

If this shit storm goes to full Crash out and WTO.....

This person will be our new Boss. Despite weeping and gnashing of teeth to the contrary.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roberto_Azev%C3%AAdo

CaptainBrickbeard · 19/07/2018 20:08

Emily Thornberry has ruled out Labour support for a second referendum: “we have to leave the EU even though it’s breaking our hearts”. What utter, total crap.

If the government collapses and a General Election is called I honestly don’t know who I will vote for. I can’t vote Labour if they won’t entertain the idea of remaining in the EU, not to mention the anti Semitism debacle. What a fucking mess!