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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

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Peregrina · 23/07/2018 08:50

I agree with BigChoc about how panic escalates. If you can remember the BSE crisis - it had been rumbling away for a number of years and suddenly something caused a huge panic and whoosh, it exploded.

Mrsr8 · 23/07/2018 08:53

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Mrsr8 · 23/07/2018 08:54

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HermioneGoesBackHome · 23/07/2018 09:10

School age kids here too (teenagers close to exam years too)
I’m planning to go around the 15th March. They are breaking up at the end of March so would only miss two weeks of school. Then add the school hols and it takes us to near the end of April (they have 3 weeks hols).
That way if things are settling down quickly enough, then they will have missed little school time.
I would have no qualms if they were in primary.

I agree that their safety is paramount for me. Plus mine tbh as a foreigner (I can’t see it going down well if there are some food shortage and rationing tbh)
So missing school would be a small issue for me compare to the rest.

Quietrebel · 23/07/2018 09:13

Maybe you're all right and I'm concerned about the wrong things... but I can't dismiss the job part : if it's really that bad it would be a bad idea to walk away from a decent job as god knows how hard it would be to find an equivalent in that chaotic context... unless talking about a full on civil war with actual deaths by the 000s??

HermioneGoesBackHome · 23/07/2018 09:13

Also what is your H thinking on that? Is he happy for you to go away, does he want to go away himself and avoid the chaos etc...

You need to think about you and the dcs but also how it’s going to fit in/work with your DH (incl I wouod Get divorced if it comes to that as this has implications of its own)

TheElementsSong · 23/07/2018 09:17

I'm very torn on the question of whether to take a "holiday" - there's the cat to think of, and even when everything in the world was hunky-dory I have always fretted about being burgled (it's been a long-standing "thing" of mine), and then there's having to take the DC out of school.

Mrsr8 · 23/07/2018 09:25

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Mrsr8 · 23/07/2018 09:26

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UnnecessaryFennel · 23/07/2018 09:33

I cannot believe it's come to this.The whole country held to ransom by a tiny bunch of disaster capitalists. Talk of civil war? What on earth is happening to us?

I wish we could up and leave, I really do. But where? Mrsr8 I do hope it all works out for you Flowers

RedToothBrush · 23/07/2018 09:35

amp.theguardian.com/law/2018/jul/23/womens-rights-under-threat-after-brexit-warns-ehcr-report?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true
Women's rights under threat after Brexit, warns EHCR report
EU protections may not apply under UK law, with workplace equality especially at risk

Buried in today's news.

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RedToothBrush · 23/07/2018 09:40

m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/brexit-environment_uk_5b520eeee4b013392edfa2aa/?__twitter_impression=true
A No Deal Brexit Would Be Catastrophic For The Environment - But We Aren't Talking About It
Any pretence of Brexit Britain staying a green and pleasant land could disappear in a puff of toxic smoke

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DGRossetti · 23/07/2018 09:42

Will UK exams be recognised elsewhere after Brexit ? Has anyone asked ?

RedToothBrush · 23/07/2018 09:45

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lib-dems-plot-to-sweep-away-cable-7dbxlscq5
Lib Dems plot to oust Cable as leader

Well this is interesting. Vince becomes leader cos no one else stands. Vince gets no media coverage. Vince fucks up and misses crucial vote cos he's a meeting to discuss the dissolving of the LDs in effect. The LDs have a rogue LGBT section.

So the solution is to bring in 35 year old newbie MP Layla Moran over the head of deputy leader Jo Swinson who has just had a baby.

I guess it's column inches in the Times.

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HermioneGoesBackHome · 23/07/2018 09:45

Unfortunately, going out of the eu also means no more system in place to recognise diplomas....

I couldn’t see anything in the leaflets form the eu to say of hat wouod be replaced by anything. I suspect it will be a case to case basis.

So in short, no. There will be no direct recognition of diploma after leaving the EU. Not sure what happens in the rest if the world. My experience says it depends on the diploma/job etc...

RedToothBrush · 23/07/2018 09:46

DGR mutual recognition of qualifications is an EU thing...

So no deal = no obligation to recognise.

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ChardonnaysPrettySister · 23/07/2018 09:49

Pet passports are another thing.

I fear that it will lead to animals being abandoned once the owners realise they can't take then back to the UK, or out of it.

RedToothBrush · 23/07/2018 09:51

Andrew Lilico @ andrew_lilico
I see Lord Adonis is now saying we'll have "ration books" if there's no deal. Desperate. This nonsense about running out of food is actually literally comical. Is there anyone who takes that seriously?

A reminder: ~2/3 of UK food eaten is produced here or imported from non-EU. A further ~15% is exported from here to the EU. So in a (nonsense) scenario where EU tried to cut off our food (as if!) we'd start with >80% of current consumption even before boosting non-EU imports.

Bangs head on the wall repeatedly

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ChardonnaysPrettySister · 23/07/2018 09:53

I cannot believe it's come to this.The whole country held to ransom by a tiny bunch of disaster capitalists. Talk of civil war? What on earth is happening to us?

How and what indeed?

54321go · 23/07/2018 10:21

I think I would caution in leaving your home in the UK @Mrsr8.
Leaving a house unattended for more than a month (check insurance details) COULD leave it vulnerable. Although it may not receive attention from squatters it might be broken into by possible 'looters'.
You will not starve. Things will be a bit 'bizarre' but I think you may risk actually losing more by taking a 'long vacation'.
It may be life becomes a weird 'third world' scenario replacing normal work for standing in food queues for a week or two. Schools may close, in which case all children involved will be in the same predicament and whatever is done to unravel the mess (eventually) should largely resolve itself.
I feel that fleeing your home is too extreme. Obviously I know nothing about your circumstances but look for some rationality (even though the Government can't) but don't act in a knee jerk manner. Of 65 Million, some (maybe tens of thousands of people) stand to gain a lot but the other 64+ Million are in the same mess

Mrsr8 · 23/07/2018 10:29

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Quietrebel · 23/07/2018 10:29

54321go, I agree. I don't believe for one second we'll end up in a civil war scenario. I personally think leaving the UK at the end of March could leave me and my family much more vulnerable than if I just stayed. Travel disruptions could make it hard to come back, paperwork might be queried etc.
I think it's more likely to be weird and unpleasant like you say.

Mrsr8 · 23/07/2018 10:30

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SusanWalker · 23/07/2018 10:31

Rees Mogg on the Westminster hour last night still coming out with his tired old line about food, clothes and footwear, even though food prices have risen since the ref. It is starting to sound old now though and I sensed a lot of impatience about his refusal to engage with any of the issues beyond saying everyone is overreacting and it's all going to be fine.

The Labour lady (Angela someone from the lords?) pointing out that the answer to everything isn't just "we can trade around the world and it will all be lovely" but that there are lots of non trade things that need sorting out.

I do find it rather ironic that so many people said that they would have stayed in if it had just been a trading relationship without all the political stuff. Yet it seems to me that we are now trying to ditch the trading relationship, whilst retaining a lot of the non trade stuff, like security, medicines, EASA etc;

It's almost like we joined in with all that political stuff because it made things better for us.........

Mrsr8 · 23/07/2018 10:35

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