Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

[RedToothBrush]

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

I don't believe for one second we'll end up in a civil war scenario

But when does a mass insurrection become a civil war ? And if it does go that far, how successful have successive governments been at quietly disarming the population as a whole (thread convergence with US 2nd amendment debates ) ? When will the tazers give way to baton rounds, and when will those be replaced by live bullets ?

Who remembers "Survivors" from the 70s ? I wonder if the BBC might reshow it ?

DF remembers clean water being the first priority after the fighting in Italy in 1944-45 (even over food) and that soldiers don't waste bullets on things that don't run around. He made a few cents finding and returning unused ammunition to the GIs ... remembers they always had loads of candy. for the children.

Funny it seems more real now than in the 1970s when I heard it as ancient history.

Idly thinking the commission may have missed a trick by not insisting the negotiating language be Welsh ....

Mrs8, if you go abroad you could be swapping one problem for another thats all imho. You just don't know.

Let me go full on dystopian about if you go abroad, to illustrate the point.

If you leave, will you have medical cover ?
If there is a far right backlash against EU cits here, what happens to Brits abroad? Are they safe?
If the pound melts down, how will you support yourself?
If UK airspace is closed, how long will it be for? How long can you survive abroad?
You assume that being in 'exile' will be a couple of weeks long. What if its not? Your kids might not be eligible for education abroad?

There are so many variables to this.

Are you really going to be better off?

I certainly DO NOT think flying out with no long term plan to commit to staying where ever you are going is a viable nor sensible solution, regardless of the warnings and chaos that might happen here.

You are effectively thinking of becoming a refugee. Think about all that means an entails. Like really think.

Its not a solution. Not really. No matter how worried or concerned you are right now.

Hmmm
I think that if you are thinking about going away, then you need to know how the other country works.

So no no one will get heath cover for 3 months after moving to another country as you aren’t considered a resident.
If you are a citizen of the country (as Mrs8 in Ireland or me in France), after 3months you will have access to medical care as per the country system (I understand that in RoI, there is a private system running too)

I would be VERY careful with using the word refugee! First because it has very negative connotation. Plus you can’t be a refugee in a country that you have citizenship for or within Europe if you have an eu passport...

YY about the pound collapsing which is why I wouod advise anyone, even if you stay in the U.K., to change money into euros.

So yes you need to prepare yourself careful and do your homework. But I really dint think it means being a ‘refugee’ with absolutely nothing. No one says it would be easy. But then so will staying in the uk tbh.

I have my differences with Amazon, but they're no fools. If they expect civil unrest after 2 weeks of no deal, so do I.

I'm in a London suburb with a low crime rate. During the last riots nothing happened in our area other than one car getting set on fire. The local shopkeepers were worried, but nothing happened.

But:

• there weren't food shortages last time.
• my local police station is now a primary school. Thanks Theresa!
• police numbers overall have gone down in the intervening years.
• there was a violent far-right riot during Trump's visit in central London. The fascists will jump on any excuse to come out and play.

I was considering getting rid of my car, as I rarely need it, but not now. I will keep a full tank of fuel so I can get to my relatives in the country without stopping if need be.

Something to consider for those booking flights: Airlines routinely overbook because they expect no-shows. I used to book a lot of business travel and advised my guys to arrive as early as possible in order to avoid being bumped off the flight.

I have my differences with Amazon, but they're no fools.

They are the paradigm of a 21st company, and (despite the odd MN naysayer) haven't put a foot wrong since 1997 when I started using them. I rate them above Google even if they still haven't sorted out their search tools in 15 years.

I’m buying an extra freezer

Make sure it's gas powered, and you have plenty of cylinders.

Be wary of stockpiling cylinders. It gets you noticed very quickly.

You assume that being in 'exile' will be a couple of weeks long.

This happened to a now deceased Dutch friend during WW2. They lived in Indonesia and had gone back 'home' for a longish summer holiday in 1939. The War started, the Nazis invaded, and the family wasn't able to return to Indonesia until 1945. My friend never did, coming to the UK instead.

So the line about Amazon is something along the lines of them being anti-brexit cos they dodge tax and don't want to pay UK rates...

Anyway

Mrs8, you need to manage the anxiety of this, and start doing that now. I suspect we are going to see a lot more heightening of warnings to actively scare people. They want you to be scared. Thats the point. This is going to get scarier. There is a movement now, to do that, to get people worried and worked up to try and shift political opinion. The only way that can happen is if warnings are wide ranging and persistant and strong. They have to reach people who have their fingers in their ears. If you are sensitive now, you are going to drive yourself around the bed with it.

Remember the ultimate aim of maing you anxious is not to make you prep but to stop the need to prep.

You need to realise you have limitations to how much in control of things you can be. You can not control this situation. You can do things to help relieve some of your anxiety. You can do things that make you feel like you are protecting yourself against in small ways. But the big stuff? I don't honestly think you can plan for that. You can plan for disruption not chaos.

As far as the big stuff goes, its far better to make should you do things like make sure you have a good local support network around you - simple things like making sure you are on friendly terms with neighbours.

Know your limitation. Do what you can about the small stuff you have choice and options over; especially if it help ease your anxiety. Also know that when it comes to the bigger stuff, that those things are going to be priorities for preventing abject melt down. Beyond that your worry is unproductive and based on so many variables of the unknown, that you can not plan anyway.

Doing things like ensure you stockpile food is about giving you options to help manage possibilities rather than solving the problem and often they merely give illusion of control, if I'm totally honest. If problems are prolonged, they won't be much help.

David Allen Green has a reflective thread this morning.

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
A thread about being realistic about the Withdrawal Agreement.1.

As the eminent jurist Douglas Adams said, Don't Panic. 2.

There are a number of things pointing to a Withdrawal Agreement being in place by March 2019. 3.

First, and most importantly, the parties (UK and EU27) want an agreement.
Second, it is in both their interests that there is an agreement.
Third, they are still negotiating. 4.

Fourth, there is a text which is at least 80% agreed.

Fifth, it is still only July and the agreement needs to be in place by March (though October is preferable). 5.

And sixth, even though the parties currently disagree on the Irish border backstop issue, both parties agree this is a risk which needs to be addressed and managed.

The difference is about means, not ends. 6.

The Underground Academic #FBPE @Itisallacademic
Thank you, David. I find it very easy to get overwhelmed by the negativity and despair of Twitter on this (when, actually, not much has changed in the last 48 hours). Your thread is an important balance.

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Trying to keep calm on Brexit Twitter is sometimes like being the Spike Milligan character in Life of Brian.

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Bias of a transactional lawyer - who in both public and private sectors has had clients running around saying "we are doomed, we are doomed!" before the agreement gets signed anyway.

FWIW I EXPECT us to walk out of talks and I EXPECT us to run over the October deadline.

May is using Trumpian tactics now. Trump does this, but does walk back quietly on a lot of attempts to do this.

Its a toddler testing its boundaries.

We shall see.

Who's starting to bone up on flint knapping ?

I wouldn't see civil war as such but there are likely to be some areas of massive tension, maybe reminiscent of the border areas between Eire/Ni where 'hooligan' violence becomes untameable for a while.
The EEA was about trade, but the EU was always about a 'political union' or at least a general harmonisation of the 'rules' which roughly speaking it has achieved. There have been only about 5 cases where 'EU rule' has directly clashed with UK rule over the last 45 years (assuming I have taken this correctly from previous posts).
The Imperialist attitude of the British and some unwillingness to compromise a small amount of 'Sovereignty' for the good of a stable trading block with other members with a similar outlook and expectation for their lives left us standing in the corner whingeing rather than rolling up our sleeves and pitching in with the rest.
We had the finest Navy in the world, with ships built from British oak. The ships eventually got sunk, and we didn't replant for new trees. About sums it up really.

I simply do not trust the govt to protect me and mine.

If nothing else, this is the first point of government. It can be traced back to the first settled communities requiring protection from the yet-to-settle nomads who'd happily let you do the hard work, then rock up, kill you and eat your stuff.

Personally I think that everything else is subsidiary to that one task. regulating trade, encouraging education, wealth, etc etc etc all eventually goes to keeping country and citizen safe. Safe from invasion, safe from criminals, and safe from harm.

If a government can't do that, it's failed.

I suspect we are going to see a lot more heightening of warnings to actively scare people. They want you to be scared…There is a movement now, to do that, to get people worried and worked up to try and shift political opinion.

Who is 'they' here, Red? Government? (surely not; May seems to still be deluded enough to think a couple of ministers going on a jolly to other countries will be enough to pull all this back). The 'opposition? (don't make me laugh). The companies giving warnings? This seems the most likely.

No question, home ownership can hinder your flexibility in such circumstances.
I wouldn't advise anyone to abandon a home they own, or a job.
However, if you are renting and you can get a new job abroad ... much easier

UK professional qualifications are recognised now and would stay that way if you have a job in the E27 before Brexit - but you might be tied to that one employer.

Mrsr If you are home-owners, but are personally an SAHP, you could take the kids mid-March to your family while your OH could stay on in Britain,
joining you later for an Easter holiday, with the option of longer if things get too tough in the UK, or if he gets laid off etc.
No need to tell the school anything at this stage - it's just a holiday.

As an Irish citizen, you and the kids would have complete rights to stay in the RoI.

For anyone else: a UK expat who is self-supporting after Brexit should not have serious trouble
Although I now work only PT in Germany, it's sufficient to be above the income limit and my employer says they could easily get a 5-year visa for me if need be, just as for Indian colleagues.
afaik, all EU countries allow people from any country to remain if they have had 5 years residence, are above the income limit and of course law-abiding. Germany does, at least.

I didn't want to suffer Brexshit worries at my age, so my backup plan was before the ref - I had a job offer ready and emigrated literally end June 2016.
I sold my UK flat for almost full price and gritted my teeth about exchange rate to Euros, but I judged it could get a lot worse - anyway, the longterm trend for decades is that Sterling has sunk.

DP and I had been thinking (as home-owners) that one way to do it would be to piss off abroad, rent the UK house out and let it make us some money.

I suppose that assumes that people will still want/be afford to rent a house in London. Something I'd always thought was going to be reliable, but which looks a little less certain now TBH.

DP and I had been thinking (as home-owners) that one way to do it would be to piss off abroad, rent the UK house out and let it make us some money.

You trust the UK government to allow money to leave the UK like that ?

I wouldn't.

Re qualifications: one of the reasons we emigrated to NZ in the 70s, rather than, say, Canada (which was the other country that had an NHS type health system with which my parents were comfortable) was that my Dad wouldn't have to re-sit his professional exams. After 10 years of concerted study for his medical exams then the exams for his specialism, my mum put her foot down so Canada was off the list

DG I'd expect exchange controls to only be on capital, say over 50k per year.
Letting out a property would at least pay for repairs, some of mortgage - might not actually be much, or any, profit to remit.
At worst, it is a nest egg for the future, when you return to the UK to deal with the house / retire etc

DG I'd expect exchange controls to only be on capital, say over 50k per year.

Does that fit in with how Brexit has gone so far ? I'd be very careful what I'd "expect".

Also, post Brexit, will EU banking systems be able to work with UK ones ? With the UK as a 3rd country, I suspect movement of money would be much more effort. Bear in mind what an opportunity Brexit would be if groups like ISS/Daesh/whatever-they-are-today wanted to try and operate under it's cover - similar to the way the Soviets smuggled loads of agents under cover of the post war confusion.

I'd rather be over pessimistic and wrong than optimistic - and wrong.