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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

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KennDodd · 19/07/2018 23:29

Motheroffourdragons

Green?
Why can't you vote Lib Dems? Try not to take an entrenched position on politics, no good comes of it.

Motheroffourdragons · 19/07/2018 23:31

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

keyboardkate · 19/07/2018 23:32

FPTP means that a vote for anyone other than LAB or Con is useless.

That is so non democratic IMV.

But no one objects. Ever. Wonder why?

Motheroffourdragons · 19/07/2018 23:32

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

keyboardkate · 19/07/2018 23:36

@Motheroffourdragons

We live in hope.

Motheroffourdragons · 19/07/2018 23:38

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

colouringinagain · 19/07/2018 23:48

Great leader and PM!

thecatfromjapan · 20/07/2018 00:35

Jo Maugham on Twitter (@JoltonMaugham 19.07.2018 20:57)

Is reporting that May is going to announce the backstop Deal dead 'in the strongest terms' in a speech in Belfast tomorrow.

That is effectively reneging on the December agreement with the EU and I don't see how that can't push us into No Deal. I also can't help but feel it's not a good look for a nation seeking to establish new trade deals.

She's crap.

I am now worried this might be the straw that finally pushes sterling into a plunge - held off whilst everyone desperately waits to see if May can pull a rabbit from the hat or whether she's as crap as she seems to be.

(She is.)

Icantreachthepretzels · 20/07/2018 02:13

Well - obviously anything the govt does is going to be a shitfest. Perhaps an earlier walkout from talks would be better as it would cause an uproar in public opinion and force reentry into talks/govt collapse/ just ... anything else.

And I really think there might be uproar - now.

This board is tucked away where people don't have to look at it. For years it has been pretty much us and the brexit arms. But currently - as I am typing this - westminsterenders is the second to top thread and there is eight threads between this one and the last westminsterenders - which for those of you with short memories - we stopped posting on last night

And I checked all the threads - the OPs were not names I recognised as regular posters over here - and each thread had a different OP. Even if we remove Red's prepper thread and the barmy arms from the equation - that's still 7 separate Brexit threads that have been posted on in the past 24 hours.

Now I know that's not comparable to AIBU... but we have seen how fwr has had a twelve fold increase in recent years - and I think, just in the past week or so, this topic has seen more traffic (even these threads have a wider range of posters on them ) More people are paying attention. More people are beginning to get it.

I think TM, if she kills the backstop and effectively ensures no deal tomorrow - or if she insists we walk out of talks over the summer - will face a much greater backlash than she is expecting.
And it is that backlash that is needed if anything is to change.

So don't despair* no matter what batshit, incompetent or frankly just evil thing she does. Every batshit, incompetent and evil action raises more awareness. She has to do something really bad before public opinion rises up and buries her. Fingers crossed she does it quickly.

*But don't stop stockpiling.

TooExtraImmatureCheddar · 20/07/2018 03:08

I just want to say I have been periodically lurking on these threads since they began and have found them incredibly informative and useful. Thank you so much for keeping them going. Flowers Cake Wine

mathanxiety · 20/07/2018 05:27

The violent posturing has already begun in NI (see events around the Twelfth).

It comes as no surprise that TM has picked a most unfortunate time of the year to trample over the GFA in Belfast.

After repudiating the backstop agreement, and with it the GFA, the government now faces into negotiations in Brussels with its word as believable as that of Richard Nixon. The government's reputation will also go before it to the WTO. Good luck with that, as they say.

borntobequiet · 20/07/2018 06:35

If public opinion shifts (I think it will but am so often wrong) it will shift very rapidly and decisively. Catastrophe theory in action!

Plonkysaurus · 20/07/2018 06:47

Agree born. She reckons she can swan off for another walking holiday with Our Phil and the country will keep ticking over.

Find it semi-hilarious but mostly disgraceful that Boris appears to be squatting in a luxury home that belongs to the state. Benefit scrounger.

HesterThrale · 20/07/2018 06:48

I agree pretzels I think there's growing awareness and concern (not yet panic) about Brexit.

The way it's currently going, it's going to take many years to mend our relationship with the countries closest to us. For them to trust us again.

This is ridiculous. The Tories created this problem, they have to fix it. “Brexit: Theresa May says it is now up to EU to prevent hard border as she visits Northern Ireland - The Independent.

mobile.twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1020070418244423681?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

EmilyAlice · 20/07/2018 06:51

The pound is down to 1.1170 against the euro now. It has been pretty consistent at 1.14 ish for ages. Not good for people going on holiday.

TheNumberfaker · 20/07/2018 07:08

So DH announced yesterday that he's planning to apply for voluntary redundancy. I have only been able to get through the last 2 years based on him working for a rock-solid UK based blue chip. We both grew up in poverty and have worked so hard to build a stable life for our family. He has no idea why I am so upset. I feel like Cassandra! He just won't listen when I say that this is not the time to give up your job.

lonelyplanetmum · 20/07/2018 07:12

it's going to take many years to mend our relationship with the countries closest to us. For them to trust us again.

Look back in December we entered a binding international agreement that in the absence of any other solution, Northern Ireland would remain in “full alignment” with the EU’s single market and customs union rules in all relevant sectors.

We AGREED this.

It wasn't a mistake or an oversight. There was a lot of fuss about it. TM had to delay the whole agreement to telephone the DUP’. Remember? There was then a guarantee of no border in the Irish Sea.

It is beyond AngryAngry if Theresa now says that we didn't mean this.

This is worse lack of statesmanship than Tories shafting the LibDem MPs on maternity leave. That is going back on internal agreements. This is bad enough.

But this is an external agreement made in good faith. We made it verbally and then as David Davies immediately was slippery and muttered about going back on it , the EU had to ask for it to be written down.

It used to be said an Englishman's word is his bond. I tell my kids if they say they will do something they must do it. If they can't do it then don't promise in the first place.

It's like the story of the princess and the golden ball and the frog.

If our PM is reneging it's outrageous.

RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 07:29

She's gone full on Trump...

...who has done exactly this several times.

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RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 07:33

Simon Coveney @ simoncoveney
If UK Govt don’t support current EU wording on Backstop in draft Withdrawal Agreement, then obligation is on them to propose a viable and legally operable alternative wording that delivers same result: no border infrastructure. Clear UK commitments were made on this in Dec+March.

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Plonkysaurus · 20/07/2018 07:38

What the fuck is she doing?

RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 07:39

I think we can safely say, my house ain't gonna sell now.

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RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 07:41

What the fuck is she doing?

What the President and the ERG Leader tell her.

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BrexitWife · 20/07/2018 07:47

Well apparently, TM is now saying that the issue of the Irish border is now an EU problem as she has done her bit Angry

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-border-ireland-theresa-may-eu-work-chequers-plan-michel-barnier-a8455451.html

RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 07:52

This tweet from yesterday has caught my eye:
Asa Bennett @ asabenn
Tory Brexiteers want May to junk Chequers for a Canada-style FTA, but No 10 not biting as it feels it doesn't solve Irish border. "The PM is obsessed with it," one backbench Leaver tells me, arguing that Ireland is a "distraction"

The PM is right to be obsessed with it.

May suddenly going full on Trump is either one of two things now, a massive full on bluff in which we will be bombarded with info about implications and action we need to take for no deal. To shift public opinion and the EU position. (Which won't work btw). Or a genuine concerted effort where no deal is the actual plan. In which case we do need to prepare but lots of people will dismiss it as utter bullshit.

But we don't get to find out for some time which it is. And it's screw the economy, reignite NI and fuck up any international good will we have left in the process of finding out which insane option May has decided to take.

Whoopie.

I also said it was about NI...

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RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 07:52

I always said it was about NI even.

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