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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 20/07/2018 07:54

Flaming nora. I only logged off for about 8 hours.

I don't see how this can be stopped when half of Labour seem to be quite resigned to it and the Lib Dems don't seem to be pulling people in despite being the only consistent pro EU party.

TheElementsSong · 20/07/2018 07:54

If our PM is reneging it's outrageous.

I'm intrigued to know how Leavers think this sort of thing will play with our wondrous world-spanning potential trade deal partners. They've tended to be really good at spinning fantastical positive explanations for everything so far - if this wasn't real life affecting millions of actual people, it would be a really fascinating giant-scale human experiment.

ClashCityRocker · 20/07/2018 07:56

FFS.

My one remaining hope (pun definitely intended) is that she's doing such a shit job that there will be an 11th hour reprieve.

It's the only way out now, I think.

EEA/customs - not will of the people apparently.

Total brexit cliff-edge armageddon - No one but a select few voted for that. If it carries on in the direction it's headed maybe there will be enough of a public outcry that the prime minister can say that stopping brexit IS the will of the people?

It's a very thin straw and I don't really believe in it - it means there has been a cunning plan all along and I really don't think there has - but I do think it's the only chance left.

RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 07:56

David Henig @ davidheniguk
It is not new that the UK Government reject a Northern Ireland-only backstop, or that the interpretations of the UK and EU / Ireland differ on what was agreed in December (let's not analyse the text again, they diagree). 1/
Question 1: Is it really the UK Government's position (informally at least) that the backstop should be UK wide essentially in such a way that the UK remains tied to all EU structures and commitments (money, people) at least until there's a future agreement which may be never? 2/
If endless transition is the unstated UK policy then it doesn't matter that the content of the White Paper was often incoherent, it was never intended to be used except as a fig leaf. Parliamentary debates are then just an elaborate game 3/
Question 2: Is the EU really going to reject an arrangement that prevents an Irish border, retains freedom of movement, and retains UK contribution to the budget? If the alternative is no deal as the UK has ruled out every alternative? 4/
All the EU has to do is talk plausibly about theoretical customs arrangements and common rulebooks which they know will never be implemented to provide cover for the UK's plan. 5/
Question 3: Is a UK wide backstop plan really plausible? Unless she's a fabulous actress the PM believes in the White Paper, but I doubt officials do, and MPs and the EU disregard it. Could she get enough votes for this 'no change Brexit'? 6/ ends

Another interpretation: May thought the backstop was UK wide or wants it to be and this was the way to fuck the ERG.

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Plonkysaurus · 20/07/2018 07:56

That you did Red.

Like most of the great unwashed, I'm incredibly ignorant of Irish history. Can anyone recommend a good book I can read to give me some idea what happened leading up to the GFA?

And am I right to assume that TM reneging on her position 7 months ago means that we are selling N. Ireland down the river, the gfa will dissolve and troubles would start again?

KennDodd · 20/07/2018 07:57

We need the new editor of the Daily Mail to take over now, the current one will be wiping up hatred against foreigners and the EU until he goes and the public will believe it.

frumpety · 20/07/2018 08:03

Ken think he will be in position after the Summer hols , but could be wrong.

RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 08:05

bigthink.com/paul-ratner/34-years-ago-a-kgb-defector-described-america-today.amp?__twitter_impression=true
34 years ago, a KGB defector chillingly predicted modern America

Well this is cheery. It's exactly the same principle for the UK.

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Grifone · 20/07/2018 08:06

WTO is stark for the UK but almost as stark for Ireland. As awful as it is for the UK it is worse for Ireland as this shitshow is not of their making. And that is before we look at the social, economic and political fallout over the border and the GFA Sad. Still blue passports eh.

twitter.com/BenChu_/status/1019953728718278656?s=19

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer
Mrsr8 · 20/07/2018 08:06

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

hanahsaunt · 20/07/2018 08:10

I don't think that Geordie Greig starts until November :(

BrexitWife · 20/07/2018 08:15

Very interesting article RBT
And I agree. It has always been about Russia and their needs to destabilise Europe (and the US) to assert dominance.

I’m surprised the author of the article even wonders of Putin still uses the KGB techniques tbh. They would be so embedded in him that he would be choosing them, even subconsciously.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/07/2018 08:23

The EU publishing its latest info / warnings about Brexit prep

So clearly laid out; so clearly shows up the total lack from the UK govt

Unfortunately, nothing to indicate how UK residents should prepare, because of course E27 residents don't need to

68 notices to stakeholders - covers all sectors I can think of:
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/communication-preparing-withdrawal-brexit-preparedness-annex.pdf

plus a very simple "7 things E27 businesses should know"
http://europa.eu/rapid/attachment/IP-18-4545/en/IP-18-4545%20Brexit%20Preparedness%20Factsheet.pdf

annandale · 20/07/2018 08:30

Plonky, I'm always recommending Making Sense of the Troubles on here because it's so good. It's quite old but I believe it had a new edition after the GFA.

RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 08:31

Kate Hoey @ katehoey
So who is going to construct this hard border if Irish Gov say they don’t want it and Uk Gov doesn’t either?

Amazing.

Just amazing.

I wish the world was this simple.

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20nil · 20/07/2018 08:43

I remain convinced that we have not yet reached crisis point and when we do, we’ll see a massive shift in discourse. Big business and especially the financial sector has not yet really flexed its muscles. The warnings we’ve had so far have been scattered and necessarily theoretical. Once they know what they’re actually dealing with, things will change.

Motheroffourdragons · 20/07/2018 08:51

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

prettybird · 20/07/2018 09:01

Dh has just mused whether TM is suffering from Stockholm Syndrome Grin

RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 09:02

More cheery reading
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/08f0d54a-8b8a-11e8-9b4b-d04c94d077dc
Why the next crash could hit Britain hardest

The basis of our prosperity has unwittingly exposed us to the danger of China’s debt bubble

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20nil · 20/07/2018 09:02

She doesn’t give a shit about NI as she proved when she tried last December to agree to a sea border. The only reason she’s frothing about it now is because of the DUP. Tory faux horror over a sea border is galling.

mybrainhurtsalot · 20/07/2018 09:07

www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

“Her opposition to a border in the Irish sea was cemented on Monday when a last- minute amendment to the customs bill, tabled by the Labour MP Kate Hoey, was nodded through making it illegal to have a barrier between Northern Ireland and Great Britain”.

RedToothBrush · 20/07/2018 09:11

Re the China story:

Ian Dunt @ iandunt
The trouble is that Brexit damage and other economic shocks are not mutually exclusive propositions. The nightmare scenario is that both happen at once.

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BigChocFrenzy · 20/07/2018 09:12

Hoey's entire Brexit Ultra stand is based on her hardcore NI Unionism
Labour, her constituents, everyone else - are of no importance to her, compared to that

BigChocFrenzy · 20/07/2018 09:14

MPs can rightly prioritise their own constituents sometimes over the rest of the country
but it is not normal to prioritise other MPs' constituents - Unionist ones - in another province entirely

20nil · 20/07/2018 09:15

How do you figure that Bigchoc?