Westministenders: Simple Solutions for Complex Tasks Never Work

[RedToothBrush]

Time for some honesty: Simple Solutions for Complex Task Never Work.

There is a quote which I forget, which relates to authoritarian leaders, that is along the lines of being afraid of the man who offers you an easy solution.

This is the most basic thing of popularism.

What should worry you most is that EVERY politician in the UK is currently offering you this. Even the Remainers.

No one is up to the job. No one is really admitting the complexity of the task.

A People's Vote won't solve that. Its a 'solution' that might not even be possible at this stage due to the time it takes to set one up - which is lost from virtually all conversation. And even then, how the question is phrased is so unbeleivably contensious with parliament so divided its impossible to see how you could get them to agree to the wording.

Its arrogant to assume that remainers would win: there is still no honesty in the debate and the lies persist. Without being honesty in politics, any referendum is a car crash waiting to happen. Its Cameron's mistake and others are in danger of making it again.

The only purpose it may serve, is to start reframing the debate but that will only happen if there is a conscious decision by all to be more honest about the current state of play.

Even the thought that the only way out for politicians is to 'hand it back to the electorate' as they are too crap to sort it their internal squabbles is a nonsense.

The only way you could hand it back to the public in the time frame would be to trigger a General Election, and there is certainly no will to do that from the Tory Party and the numbers are not there to trigger it otherwise. Not that a General Election looks likely to create anything but another hung parliament and thus no way forward.

In terms of May's leadership, its difficult to see what happens next. With Remainers as well as Leavers torpedoing The Turd Way, its dead in the water. May has to go back to the drawing board. But there the alternative will have to align further either with one or the other group: and the EU will NEVER agree to a deal which is closer to the Brexiteer / Davis position.

May either has to go hard, and then compromise later with the EU. Probably to the point which is remainier than The Turd Way anyway or she has to go softer from the off, which would send the Brexiteers into a rage and trigger a leadership contest for certain. If May goes softer, there might be more inclination from Labour to agree to it and save her neck. But even then Labour tribalism runs so deep, its hard to see that happening either. They might promise it, then pull out, causing even more issues later on.

Whether she could survive a leadership contest is still open to debate. There are the numbers to trigger a contest. But to oust her? Don't know. And then there's the question of the alternative. Who steps up and who then answers the question of what the plan is and then how do they get the EU to agree to it?

All the while the clock is ticking.

There is virtually no time for anything now. Everything is up shit creek. The only thing that is likely is No Deal. And thats what the ERG want. They are happy just to cause trouble and obstruct everything from here on in.

But it is entirely possible that faced with that, the EU would agree to an article 50 extension. Provided we asked for one. Who would be brave enough.

If we want a deal and we want Brexit to be successful we HAVE to have an extension.

Otherwise the possibility of remaining also comes back into play.

I don't see a way out in any direction, apart from the death grip of the ERG dragging us all kicking and screaming over the cliff to absoluete chaos.

The ONLY way forward, is a massive swallowing of pride and reigning in of ego to a cross party solution AND compromising with the EU. That seems like a cake hope right now.

Remember the equation that will dominate the next few weeks:

Number of Con votes in 2017 - Number of votes for UKIP in 2015 = How much each Tory MP is shitting themselves about their job.

Please, please somebody tell me I'm wrong about this.

You're wrong.
Said Mr Gove.

Of course they care about their party. They can make more money and have a lot more power in business or the press. Backbenchers are not powerful and do not generally get rich on the back of it.

I agree that people will conitunue to vote Tory, of course they will, especially as the opposition is so hopeless. But will they continue to do so if the planes stop flying, food runs short and services run to a halt? Doubt it.

The mistake that people who empathise about others mistake about people is to assume that everyone does the same.

Thus the mistake that people make that a politician goes into politics to make the world better, when actually the reason is they go into politics to make life better for themselves.

One wants power for themselves and others; the only wants to hoard the power for themselves.

thecat: grim and worrying times indeed, but there is NO majority for a hard Brexit in parliament. No matter how you do the sums, there isn’t and I fully expect many more Tories to rebel/resign if it comes to that vote.

Nil the problem is that if a deal is forthcoming it might be hard. And the choice will be hard brexit or no deal.

The Labour Leavers have made it clear they want hard brexit.

I do not mean to be smug, but I am so glad I have an EU passport.

Those who do not, or cannot get one must be feeling a bit trapped now. That is awful really. And I do sympathise. Well with those who would like the option anyway.

Honestly does anyone think this will be great for "Great" Britain? Well our reps think it will so go figure.

The only reason anyone would want to leave the EU would be to implement extreme policies. The EU has always been a safeguard against these. Lexiters want a Bolivarian model, so we'll have choice between ultra right, neo feudalism, or full on Chavez. Only one option: resist.

Just had a look at the thread in Chat about whether their vote would've changed by now.

O. M. G.

One poster says, "I recognise many of the names, and I can bet your bottom dollar that nearly half of the posters are originally from non-EU nations via Europe. That is their reason for being Remainers "

I suppose technically I half fulfil that description, as a non-EU but Commonwealth born individual, but we came here direct from the Commonwealth country I was born in.

But I have been a British citizen for 47 years - and am a proud Scot. (Note: unlike 30-40 years ago, I can no longer say I am proud to be British - back then, I was proud to be both). I believe in Scotland. I believe in the EU. Neither are perfect - but they have values I identify with. I no longer believe in the UK. Or should that be FUKD ? It's a basket case and any pretensions of democracy are fast disappearing under the extremism caused by both FPTP and a Government that is deliberately making Parliament an irrelevance, in thrall to a self-interested and self-centred tiny minority - and being allowed to do so by the non opposition

We're also apparently all Russian backed bots

I agree, QuietRebel.

Has anyone even bothered to post this?

Twitter
Steve Bullock @Guitarmoog
17 July 2018
4:26 am

"Oh look. the government lied about the 'brexit dividend'. It lied officially, using official government channles. It lied to paliament. It forced civil servants to be complicit in lying. Not spin, or selective truth-telling. Lying. Ofiically."

It's with regard to the OBR report on that NHs spending promise. which will, as we all know, be unsustainable because there is no Brexit dividend.

I don't think anyone on this thread was in any doubt as to the complete mendaciousness of the claim of the Brexit dividend.

But I post it here because, well, it matters, because, again, it shows how far we have travelled in 2 years.

this was an outright lie. Using official channels. And we've all become so inured to it, it barely makes us surprised, it won't get covered by the BBC - and we're used to that, too. And we have reached a state where we kind of accept the government lies, without even really bothering to even appear truthful or have a reason for the lie.

People only see what they want most of the time.

This is the only explanation for the existence of Kate Hoey other than, she is recieving payment direct from Putin himself.

20Nil, I think it is highly questionable as to whether the EU can negotiate with May any more - given that the deal they made was the acceptance of the backstop and that has been all but blown out of the water by the ERG amendments. Who knows, maybe someone will pull a rabbit out of a bag but ... there have been no rabbits so far and May isn't a deft political magician.

prettybird I would take some of the LEavers on those threads with a large pinch of salt.

Since the Referendum, MN has been a place that folks come to. Some of it is astroturf, some of it is diehards and true believers.

Their point is actually to a. make people feel better about the way they voted b. keep people quiet, stop them from panicking, not allow any kind of cognitive dissonance to set in that might actually wake people up, get them angry, get them a bit concerned.

You are not - actually- speaking to the 'Leavers' on those threads.

There is no 'persuading' them - some of them aren' 'real' for a start.

The people you are really speaking to are the quiet readers. Those you actually have a chance with. And they matter.

51st Vassal State of the Us beckons with the orange one. Easy and quick trade deals you see.

And Putin in the background.

This is what they want. To unravel the EU.

These megolomaniacs will run the UK show now. There is little alternative really.

I am sure the EU will still be the enemy for some though. Despite this vista. Nothing we can do really anymore is there?

And of course they are extreme. And well-rehearsed.

They are propagandists. Qite probably professional propagandists.

Make no mistake, there is a lot of money involved here. There's a lot at stake.

BigChoc - Jo Swinson has tweeted the BBC's Laura Kussenberg that "this was neither honest nor a mistake", pointing out that Lewis remembered that he was paired for 6 votes, but then suddenly "forgot" for the two crunch votes

I think there IS stuff we can do: keep informed (an act of resistance in a state of war where information is the battleground and ignorance is a key weapon); look for opportunities of fightback (look at the ERG - looked as though it was over for them after Chequers but they found a tiny hole and went for it); support fightbacks (the Leave whistleblowe is trying to raise funds to sue; there is a people's vote campaign; rebel MPs need support and support will encourage others); support actual democracy and rule of law - it needs it; lobby for more responsible journalism - don't accept what is happening and support investigative journalism (the Guardian, etc.).

Keep fighting. Don't ever give up. Your disillusinment/exhaustion is an important victory - don't give it up too easily.

Cat: I agree about May and the EU. I don’t have much faith in her ability to negotiate anything acceptable but I also doubt that she wants a hard Brexit. The options as far as I see it are:

1.she gives way significantly to the EU at the last minute, knowing it will be passed by a majority in Parliament, though it will alienate her own Party. This might even win her another election.

1. There is no agreement and we head for a crash out. Parliament can’t vote for a deal that doesn’t exist, but they can take back control of events via a no confidence motion, a national government and/or a GE. I don’t doubt they will when it really comes to it because very, very few will want to be part of a cliff edge scenario.

I agree with you thecatfromjapan

Which is why both on these threads and on the Indyref threads, I am always careful to be polite and considered - for any Lurkers out there.

even if I do occasionally try to help shut down some of the sillier Leaver bots/contributors with recipes and gardening tips

Some of it is astroturf, some of it is diehards and true believers.

I’m a big believer in outright mockery. Makes me feel better anyway.

I am getting a feeling that the Mogglodytes will revel for 24 hours in their victory, and will then scuttle off to earn more millions.

Very sinister to me what happened here. A few Moggers ran the country. But for whom?

Also to those having a hard time with husbands and health. Life feels very, very stressful at the moment. I try to stay away from ‘leaver’ threads now as there’s no point arguing with bots and fanatics. Really no point.