Agree that if the football team reach the final, we can definitively kiss goodbye to any further 'people's vote
Why?
I think it will be a mixture of two things ... one, the bread and circuses aspect. The fact that more people will be emotionally involved in the world cup for longer, the celebrations after, the cup coming home and the team having their bus ride through the capital ... to get a people's vote we need people to care enough to make it happen. A distracted population is not going to agitate for change... plus the buzz of winning will mean people don't want to think about things that will bring them down. The euphoria will last until it is too late for people to get to grips with the reality of brexit and ask for change.
The other reason is uglier, I'm afraid. It will bring out the 'we're number one - fuck you johnny foreigner we can do anything' feelings in many of the leavers who are now - to quote themselves - 'bored of brexit'. They will think that because we have pulled off a miracle and won the world cup after 52 long years in the wilderness... then we can pull off a brexit miracle and make it a rip roaring success. Have we not just proven that we are superior to every other country on earth? Of course we can manage - we can take anything that gets thrown at us - rule Britannia!
The spike in nationalism will kill off any hope for putting an end to brexit in a democratic way - and it will embolden TM and the ERG to push everything to the very limits - and even take us over that cliff edge.
At the moment TM may still call everything off at the eleventh hour (tenth hour - we brexit on Brussels time) because that would ultimately be the safer option for her - rather then let us crash out. But if we become much more nationalistic - and then think she has stolen brexit away from us at the last minute, when it would have been glorious because we won the world cup don;t you know? then cancelling would be the more dangerous course of action for her. (and by danger - I don't mean losing her premiership - I mean getting lynched).
It doesn't make any sense - football should not affect politics. But in this case it really could - because brexit isn't sensible. It is all about emotion - and that is exactly what winning the world cup would unleash.
Getting to the quarters is exactly the best place for us. We have done better then normal so we can all be pleased with the team - and not feel embarrassed - but we haven't got so close to winning as to drive people into a nationalistic frenzy. Sadly - the team we face is an EU one, so losing will still leave brexiteers feeling aggrieved. But winning takes us one step closer to nationalist overload.
I suppose the best outcome now would be to get through this round and lose to Brazil next time. But of course Belgium might win.... and I think Sweden have a pretty decent chance of beating us, anyway.
All in all - I wish we'd gone out last night. To Colombia. 2nd round is respectable (for us, anyway)