Westministers: Operation Over The Cliff

[RedToothBrush]

Bit late and didn't realise the last thread was so close to the end... so this is a very quick OP

What do you think the secret continency plan name the government have in place for the No Deal?

Suggestions Please

It's difficult to take the UK govt seriously, when they keep presenting the same basic demands for cake,
just different phrasing
and talking more loudly for the foreigners.

The EU has rejected cake demands and will keep doing so even after UK attempt #100
This is pointless

They’ve moved you!

Boring... we've been here haven't we.

I'm relinquishing membership the local sports club but I still want to use the pool, gym and tennis courts.

But you nasty sports club you must treat my blueprint for non member use 'seriously'.

Nauseating crawling by Boris to JRM:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/may-calls-on-eu-to-show-more-flexibility-in-brexit-negotiations-1.3551505

"Whatever your position, I hope we can all agree that Jacob Rees-Mogg is a principled and dedicated MP who wants the best for our country,” 💩

Hmm, about Denmark. 'In Denmark, Harsh New Laws for Immigrant ‘Ghettos’

www.nytimes.com/2018/07/01/world/europe/denmark-immigrant-ghettos.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

The EU has rejected cake demands and will keep doing so even after UK attempt
I wonder if they'll start requesting gateaux shortly soon, in case that helps

May keeps claiming
"parliament would reject the withdrawal agreement unless it was accompanied by clarity on a future trading relationship"

but would Parliament wish to do so, or instead demand that the govt go for Norway+ which would be an excellent basis for future trade.
For that, they would need it in a WA draft, or we'd have run out of time

If the EU write this WA for Parliament to consider, as has been suggested, I wonder if it is possible for them to insert a section "framework for future trade = Norway+"
I know the UK itself must apply to join EFTA, but a framework is more a statement of best intentions, so maybe Barnier can put that in, as the only Brexit that could resolve both NI and frictionless trade for the whole UK.

Are the UK's institutions that weak?

< passes Sacre the last of my gin, twitching slightly as I do it >

Yep they really are my love

Can you imagine the reaction on here if the draconian Danish laws and opinions in that article were British laws and opinions? We're incredibly liberal by comparison. Add Denmark to the long list of countries driven to the right by Mutti's madness.

Do you know Denmark, commomarewe? Or even know where it is? I suspect you don't. Since you seem to hate Germany it's to the north of Germany.

Would that list include the US, Commonarewe?
Not too many impoverished Muslim of African immigrants or refugees live in the US.

Those immigrants who have aroused the ire of the Current Incumbent are as law abiding as the rest of the population, generally find work, send their children to school and are for the most part devoutly Catholic.

The same righteous anger is being whipped up against both though.

You might almost think (if you were a cynic) that right wing groups in both Denmark and the US are manipulating the worst aspects of human nature for political gain.

Hmm. Brexiteers insist on NATO being the main source of peace in Europe. And they can simply trade on WTO terms. Trump aiming fire at both.

What is their back up plan, me wonders?

BCF, There is nothing "legal" preventing a crash out or a Brexit that requires a hard NI border (on both sides)

It would be quite something, though. Remember the backstop TM agreed and signed. The backstop she subsequently said no British PM could agree and sign.

Er, might it not have been helpful for the PM to get the treasury to do some analysis say 2 years ago...?

news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-asks-treasury-for-brexit-analysis-11424409

mathanxiety You might almost think (if you were a cynic) that right wing groups in both Denmark and the US are manipulating the worst aspects of human nature for political gain.

Yup. And a poster asked here recently what's happened to the quality of education... well perhaps it's not in a government's interest to educate people to be highly aware and acutely questioning? Maybe they need them to believe whatever they're told? To garner votes and compliance.

I still believe all children should learn about the primacy and importance of human rights. You can do worse than starting with that as a basis for your opinions and decisions.

www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/

The US authorities are seriously investigating Russian influence on the Brexit ref

An example of how the UK has far fewer checks & balances than most other developed countries

• no Independent Prosecutor in the UK, to investigate possible malfeasance of the executive.

The UK is dependent on other countries & journalists for such investigations.

UK Judicial Enquiries - long after the event - whitewash the main figures, or at most give a meaningless knuckle rap.
Mueller has already secured convictions and is closing in on the bigger fish. He can jail people for perjury / obstruction.

Russians Offered Business Deals to Brexit’s Biggest Backer

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/29/world/europe/russia-britain-brexit-arron-banks.html

… a leaked record of some of Mr. Banks’s emails suggest that he and his closest adviser had a more engaged relationship with Russian diplomats than he has disclosed

While Mr. Banks was spending more than eight million British pounds to promote a break with the European Union

• an outcome the Russians eagerly hoped for -

his contacts at the Russian Embassy in London were opening the door to at least three potentially lucrative investment opportunities in Russian-owned gold or diamond mines.

One of Mr. Banks’s business partners, and a fellow backer of Britain’s exit from the European Union, or Brexit, took the Russians up on at least one of the deals.
The extent of these business discussions, which have not been previously reported, raise new questions about whether the Kremlin sought to reward critical figures in the Brexit campaign.
…
In Washington, the investigators for the special prosecutor, Robert S. Mueller III, and Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee have also obtained records of Mr. Banks’s communications, including some with Russian diplomats and about Russian business deals.

And they have taken a special interest in close ties Mr. Banks and other Brexit leaders built to the Trump campaign.
On Nov. 12, 2016, Mr. Banks met President-elect Trump in Trump Tower.
Upon his return to London, Mr. Banks had another lunch with the Russian ambassador where they discussed the Trump visit.

From what we’ve seen, the parallels between the Russian intervention in Brexit and the Russian intervention in the Trump campaign appear to be extraordinary,”
said Representative Adam B. Schiff of California, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee.

“The Russians were apparently dangling gold mines and diamond mines and financial incentives behind one of the largest backers of Brexit,”

The US authorities are seriously investigating Russian influence on the Brexit ref

I really don't see what good this is going to do. Equally involved in influencing the ref was Cambridge Analytica .Although at first glance it's a British political consulting firm ..... The multi billionaire Mercer family funded CA directly and indirectly.

Robert Mercer and his daughter Rebekah were the earliest and strongest backers of Donald Trump. So any investigation into Russian involvement won't annul the result because they backed it too!

Annulling the result is not going to happen, UK or USA

However, anyone who has broken the law - whether in collaboration with Russia or homegrown oligarchs - should be prosecuted.
This may remove some from office
and discourage others from repeating such crimes.

Anyone who has unwittingly collabrated / skirted around the law should be exposed, so voters can use this information next time around - or just ignore

Interesting that it is Nicky Morgan in her capacity as Chair of Treasury Select Committee who is asking for the analyses of the different scenarios from the Treasury and BoE.

Suggests she's not been able to find it in existing documentation available.

RNorth today highlights yet more unforeseen / ignored consequences of No Deal:

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86920

if the UK withdraws from the EU without a deal,
there will be no system on which we can rely for continuing supplies of electricity from EU (or Efta/EEA) states

The UK currently gets over 10% of its electricity from the EU

• rising to 22% by 2022, as UK coal-fired stations close and planned nuclear plants fall behind schedule-

via a complex & regulated system of interconnectors which would require a negotiated arrangement to continue

"In the short-term, at the very least, a Single Market in goods, or a "no deal" Brexit
would almost certainly lead to power cuts

and could, with a very high degree of probability,
lead to a collapse in our entire electrical supply system."

^"While our government is so keen to detach itself from the EU to open up trading opportunities elsewhere in the world,
it is going to find it hard to replace European supplies of electricity.

Although a link with Iceland is proposed for 2022, taking advantage of its cheap, geothermal supplies,^

it is not* technically possible to hook up with Canada, the United States or more distant trading partners."
…
Also, (btl comments)EU regulation on security of energy supplies requires that members put in place "solidarity measures" in the event of an emergency.
*
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv:OJ.L_.2017.280.01.0001.01.ENG&toc=OJ:L:2017:280:TOCC*
*
This would mean that if a member starts running out,
gas supplies must be diverted away from 3rd countries (as the UK would be) to prioritize the EU member.

Uk also gets 40% of its gas supplies from Norway
*
North concudes:*
"While us plebs are shivering in our candle-lit, EU-free homes,*
successive prime ministers will continue to enjoy the warmth and light that only taxpayer pounds can provide."
< other rich Brexiters will have buggered off abroad >

I agree that an annulment of the results just isn’t going to happen (Trump or Brexit).

I’m hoping that exposing Russian involvement in the Brexit campaign will make a “People’s Vote” on the final, agreed, terms of Brexit more likely.
That would offer a way out of this mess - unfortunately I suspect that there is commonality between Trump and Brexit voters in that they don’t care about Russian interference, or damage to our democratic institutions or the erosion of people’s rights, because we are “taking back control”... we may end up with the same result

Seems the best advert for Remain comes from Leavers ....

The referendum was advisory, so exposing the Russian dimension (no matter how big) won’t annul the result. However, it will undermine the “will of the people” argument, much as the dodgy dossier did for the Iraq war. People may find it easier to change their minds.

Not related to recent posts, but I had a thought about the money for the NHS. All that matters to the Tories is their survival. Tory canvassers in the local elections were repeatedly asked where the money for the NHS was, as promised on the bus, and potentially lost votes. If there hadn't been this promise, Hunt would have been told to 'go whistle' because the Tories really don't care about the NHS. So stretching the truth, May could just about talk of a Brexit dividend, even though we will pay with our taxes.

I worry that a 'People's Vote may create even more of a mess. What if Leave wins again ? Remain wins by a tiny margin ? England and Wales vote Leave while Scotland votes Remain. I think many in the 'People's Vote' campaign are making the same assumptions/mistakes as the original Remain campaign ie that people will listen to them and think the same as them. I have no idea how this shambles can be sorted out.