Westmistenders: 'No Deal please; We're British'

[RedToothBrush]

It has to be said that its almost as if Tory Rebels are too polite to challenge the PM.

But the stakes are getting higher and higher as it becomes more and more apparent that it is a clear choice between a chaotic no deal situation or a BINO and there is no alternative to that.

If the Tory Rebels don't show their grit and are not prepared to be as strong in their determination as the Brexiteers - out of almost politeness and obligation - then No Deal awaits.

As things move forward, the threat to May once again re-emerges too. If May doesn't do what the ERG say they are minded and will try to oust her. They have nothing to lose by it.

The Tory knives are hidden behind backs one again. Waiting.

Which way will the Withdrawal Bill go? Which way will the Trade Bill later this month go?

We are running out of time and options: for either a deal or no deal.

Time has already run out for many ordinary people - they just might not know that yet, but the decision has already be made about their future.

This article by Hanif Kureishi about the absolutely stunning range of novelists (of many cultures) and artists we've had here over the last few decades. In all this political noise it's easy to forget.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/15/diversity-publishing-culture-minority-writers-penguin

That quote from Barnier is seriously chilling.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-minister-member-private-facebook-12032252.amp?__twitter_impression=true

A Tory minister was a member of a private Facebook group that called for the return of workhouses for the poor, it emerged today.

Housing Minister Dominic Raab belonged to a closed group called ‘The Ultras’, which argued for all of Britain’s council housing to be sold off and the NHS to be privatised, according to BuzzFeed News .

The 14-member group proclaims its aim is to “pressure the mainstream of the Conservative Party that such policies as: Privatisation of healthcare, the sale of all council housing at market value, and Workhouses for debtors are right and have found their time to enter Britain.”

Mr Raab drew furious criticism last year when he claimed most food bank users were not “languishing in poverty”, blaming “cash flow problems” for the huge rise people needing food parcels.

What the hell is going on? Are we actually nearing fascism, or is it something else?
Living in Scotland, the havoc caused by the Brexit vote has really put me off the idea of voting for the break-up of the UK. But if the UK is turning into a massive basket-case, then I may have to change my mind. Would WM in this state allow Scotland to hold and implement another referendum though?
To give due credit to Nicola S, she has been working hard to maintain good relations with the EU.

Everything we hear about the Tory party suggests that it is becoming more and more right wing - including the youth section. That there is competition between members to be as shockingly right wing as possible.

I didn't vote for the SNP at the last election - voted Lib Dems for Brexit reasons only. Guess what type of MP got in? I will have to vote SNP this time I think. It's as if the Government is at war with its own citizens.

Danniz I think the best thing to come from Brexit is that there are a fair few of us who don't count aren't eligible to vote but now totally get Scotland, and in fairness NI and Wales, are totally sold down the river by Westminster. If only it meant we could join together in something more meaningful I seriously doubt it.

A GE next year???

Is that really a possibility??

Really??

In a cafe yesterday 2 elderly people moaning about young people and saying we need to "just leave"

I would guess both in their 80s...

Older leave voters seem to actually hate the younger generation
😡😯

Labour wouldn't get in. They have been a disaster I would say in opposition but they present no opposition

Poss a truly hung parliament with 3/4 parties with a decent number of seats?

Anyway...
Must go.
Busy today running a fundraiser for a foodbank and holiday hunger programme in my town.

Slight change in figures, although I suppose a 2 % Tory decrease in one week is worth noticing as RTB said its trends that count.Perhaps the upskirting will be worth another per cent?

•YouGov/Times -voting intention Conservatives on 42% (from 44% last week). Labour on 39% (from 37% last week).

Liberal Democrat voting intention stands at 8% (unchanged) while 10% would vote for other parties (also unchanged).

•. On who would be the best Prime Minister, 39% prefer Theresa May while 24% favour Jezza. A further 37% can't choose between the two.

Comparing these two bare party and leader percentages does give a primitive indicator of what needs to happen... If 39% would vote Labour but only 24% Jezza -then it's time to try an alternative. If some one else is wheeled out at the right time that could be history making. But could it really change our direction if it's too late, we've already left the dozens of programmes like Galileo, the EMA etc etc and the Jezza replacement is a Leaver too anyway ?

Sorry - here's the link. I know some people don't like YouGov but other polls are similar.

yougov.co.uk/news/2018/06/15/voting-intention-conservatives-42-labour-39-11-12-/

About the Express and the people who write for it. I met a journalist who used to work for the Express. She’s a lovely if slightly crazy person, and basically did it because she needed a job, and didn’t have the background to get into one of the broadsheets. She was of course fully aware of how awful the articles in the Express are (although she worked in features, not the politics section).

Voting intentions could change if a GE has to be called because the govt collapses - it makes them look incapable of governing

Intentions would massively change if major firms pull out and unemployment spikes by several hundred thousand within a few months

and the political consequences after a no-deal Brexit - with rationing, shortages, the pound plunging into the cellar, a few million on short time working or unemployed, the IMF called in - are unthinkable,

which is why the PM and sane Tory ministers consider no-deal unthinkable.
However, with such cowardice, incompetence, ignorance, arrogance … the UK could blunder over that cliff,
with Barnier & the EU powerless to stop it.

Corbyn, McDonnell, even Farage or Banks, even worse are all possibles then. The gloves would be off.
Yes, I know the last 2 are not MPs, but Parliament might not be the source of the PM in a total disaster scenario

Hence, cool-headed Tories, if a no-deal looks likely, might bring down the govt
so a hopelessly unprepared Corbyn takes over, say a couple of months before Brexit

too stupid / stubborn to ask the EU for a pause
and anyway wants to grab the chance of his socialist utopia
… and then gets lumbered with the Brexit disaster, which can be put down to socialism

If it gets really bad you could always eat an MP. 50 delicious recipes available on Mumsnet..
I would start by recommending slow cooking as they tend to be a bit tough and leathery.
You can bet quite confidently that big firms have already been looking seriously at getting out and the longer this farce goes on the more likely they will move.
They lit the blue touch paper by calling A50 so although not a foregone conclusion having a workable plan is getting urgent.
Summer recess should be cancelled for a start.
If you were in hospital half way through heart surgery, would you want the surgeon and team to go for a lunch break?

The challenge with the YouGov (and other) polling is that they exclude the very high proportion of "Don't Knows/Undecided/Not prepared to say".

Given the clusterfuck that is the Labour Party at the moment (who, as Barnier says, are also guilty of "cake-ism" - as well as demonstrating no effective opposition, despite being paid to do so ), I'm not surprised that voters are about who to vote for.

I've not looked at the data sets recently - it would be interesting to see if the proportion of "Don't Knows" is smaller in Scotland.

BigChoc why are you so sure that the PM and ministers want to avoid no deal at all costs? They’re certainly not behaving as if that’s the case, and from where I’m sitting it now looks like the only option left to them for a hard brexit.

stepped I said the sane ones want to, for fear of the electoral consequences otheriwse.

Also, despite their aims, they share the cowardice, incompetence, ignorance, arrogance of the rest of the govt
which may cause an unintended crash-out Brexit

I put the chances of no deal at 50%, because of this.

The first part of the 'damage' has already been done, stuffing the confidence of companies and investors, and Brexit, whatever it is hasn't happened yet.
The next phase is the choice of 'deep shit' or 'very deep shit'.
Just running through any small scenario looking at any commodity will show that things WILL get more expensive, at least for the next few years. Now consider that practically everything the UK does will incur rises for similar reasons. Great deals will not happen as the UK has shown it's ability to be foolish, thereby removing confidence.
It would probably be 'cheaper' for the UK to sack ALL politicians and start again but say sorry to the EU for failing to negotiate like 'grown ups' and remain until a new parliament is formed.

Are we, the population, being used as bargaining chips? If you don't give us what we want our people will starve?
I've now peak-brexited.

I put the chances of no deal at 50%, because of this

EU making preparations for possibility of Brexit being postponed
Documents and reports show fear that UK will run out of time in talks
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-plans-uk-leave-postponed-european-union-article-50-theresa-may-a8400441.html

At the height of the Cuban Missile crisis, JFK took 2 weeks to think, read and reflect on the best course of action.

Imagine if all key players did same here, and there was an enforced moratorium on the propaganda.

The PM’s red lines are clear that she wants a hard Brexit. We know there is no legal route for this to be achieved, because of NI.

So crash out is the only option left for hard Brexit, isn’t it?

The PM wants cake with her red lines

She must realise it's impossible, but keeps going in the hope something will turn up

Is that this mornings clear red line, or the possibly clearer red line this afternoon or a slightly fuzzy red line tomorrow?
Back to 'business', Any goods or services that the EU are having to 'prepare for' will have to be paid for of course, by increased prices of goods from the EU.
I am just an untrained idiot (certainly in this field) and even I can see that exiting the EU will be immensely damaging in the immediate future and recovery, even from what is being lost already will take years.
Is any sensible person in the UK going to rush out and buy some expensive steaks and wine today if they are not sure whether they will have a job and salary at the end of next week?

In the spirit of 'Blind date' with 'our Cilla' (RIP) and the unseen Graham, could someone RTB? jot down a summary and brief description of the various options as any plot there was is now lost to me.
1:Remain (fully).
2:Limp Brexit.
3:Firm Brexit
4:Damn hard Brexit
5:Crash out in total disarray Brexit
Thanks