Westmistenders: 'No Deal please; We're British'

[RedToothBrush]

It has to be said that its almost as if Tory Rebels are too polite to challenge the PM.

But the stakes are getting higher and higher as it becomes more and more apparent that it is a clear choice between a chaotic no deal situation or a BINO and there is no alternative to that.

If the Tory Rebels don't show their grit and are not prepared to be as strong in their determination as the Brexiteers - out of almost politeness and obligation - then No Deal awaits.

As things move forward, the threat to May once again re-emerges too. If May doesn't do what the ERG say they are minded and will try to oust her. They have nothing to lose by it.

The Tory knives are hidden behind backs one again. Waiting.

Which way will the Withdrawal Bill go? Which way will the Trade Bill later this month go?

We are running out of time and options: for either a deal or no deal.

Time has already run out for many ordinary people - they just might not know that yet, but the decision has already be made about their future.

The PM’s red lines are clear that she wants a hard Brexit. We know there is no legal route for this to be achieved, because of NI.

*So crash out is the only option left for hard Brexit, isn’t it?^

But when JRM started banging on about 'just leaving' and 'trading on wto terms' at a meeting of mps in no10 she slapped him down hard as to why this couldn't happen.

Theresa's not bright. She wanted a hard brexit and painted herself into a corner and doesn't know how to get out of it/ or dare to get out of it for fear of the ERG.
But she does at least recognises the disaster of a crash out no deal and probably doesn't want to be remembered as the P.M that took a stable, prosperous nation and turned it into a starving warzone... literally overnight.

She wants to keep playing both sides - the rebels and the ERG - because once she gives into one, the others will topple her... the problem is the rebels are much cleverer than she is - and she is having a harder time stitching them up.
But as what the ERG is pushing for is the disaster she wants to avoid ... and as she realises no magic solution will present itself, we will hopefully start seeing something of a climb down. But fear of the ERG will mean she does it as late as possible.

I genuinely don't see why she doesn't declare that a people's vote is democracy and hand the problem back to us... then if we leave or stay - she can point out that the people knew the terms, the people chose - not her fault. There is no magic solution to NI, or staying in Galileo/Euratom/Europol, or being in a customs union without being in the customs union... but there is a magic solution for it all being her fault.

It's a bit like watching a repeat of Midsommer Murders but as I keep nodding off due to age I am getting confused, especially when it goes onto the next episode and the villain is now the 'goodie'.

woman The EU is probably just working out another contingency plan or option, for the no-deal scenario

Since the UK doesn't do planning, the Indie got excited and thought this was the EU's mainstream no-deal fallback.

For the UK to remain a member of the EU after 29 March 2019 requires a chain of at least 3 major events events:

1. No withdrawal agreement agreed and / or passed by all parties in time

2. The UK govt officially requesting an extension or pausing of A50
   The EU cannot legally do this until the UK requests it

The default of no-deal is crashing out without one - it is NOT waiting until there is one

The political consequences to the Tories of doing this would be severe

• Tory civil war and leadership challenges, quite apart from their voters -

at least if it were more than for a few months and then only to allow time for formal approvals of a Withdrawal Agreement finalised at the very last moment.

3. The EU member states and European Parliament agreeing to an extension. Far from a foregone conclusion.

imo, more likely than an extension:

It is possible, if no deal looks likely, that there might be a BINO transition - pay but no say - until 31 Def 2020, despite what Barnier & the RoI are openly saying,
to allow time for the EU to fully adjust supply chains, certifications especially for the aviation industry,
replace UK Airbus wings by Chinese suppliers

• and encourage Uk firms they judge important to them, to move HQs and some factories to the EU

After 1 Jan 2021, unless the Uk had come to its senses, it would be left to crash out
In the event of sanity, transition would continue as BINO until all agreements had been finalised.

The challenge with the YouGov (and other) polling is that they exclude the very high proportion of "Don't Knows/Undecided/Not prepared to say".

You also have to factor in something that YouGov miss (deliberately, by the way). Not necessarily so applicable to political issues, but as a general point they don't actually break the "don't knows" into "don't know because it's complicated" and "don't give a flying fuck".

I've done quite a few surveys where - because of the lack of the latter option - the only one available is "don't know". Which might be existentially correct, but can lead to some bad data.

It might be a little unfair on YouGov though. At the end of the day, the customer is always right, and I've been told that some surveys which looked flawed were drawn up by the customer.

Coming back to DGRossettis weird mind ... does anyone remember "The Rise and Fall of Reginald Perrin" ? There was a scene where he's being read the results of a marketing survey by Joan ...

It's a bit like watching a repeat of Midsommer Murders but as I keep nodding off due to age I am getting confused, especially when it goes onto the next episode and the villain is now the 'goodie'.

OMG @54321go this is so true!

(I had the same feeling reading the latest on US/North Korea this morning, apparently now Kim is the good guy and Obama is the baddie who wanted to start a nuclear war )

Thanks @Icant
My proposal (not that anyone gives a monkeys what I think, It's OK I can handle that), would be that Dear Theresa announces a new, compulsory vote for all UK citizens stating that the voters can have full departure from the EU (Brexit plus, the hard one) OR remain fully.
The COST of Brexit plus should be realistically outlined. Whether it is 10 percent increase on everything for (say 5 years) while the magic unicorns of 'great deals' are done or a proper estimate of what the cost might be, relating to the public spending.
To maintain a bit of balance, the cost we have incurred so far in terms of businesses that have already decided to leave due to the failures of good UK government to keep business confidence high should be indicated.
All posturing about immigration, spending on the NHS or Easter chocolates, Sovereignty in fact everything that the EU is NOT attempting to control must be excluded from any vote 'information'.
The Vote is for Fish or Beef, so any mention of chocolate pudding with ice cream is NOT allowed.
Lunch time me thinks!

DG I remember Leonard Rossiter in that and his wonderfully expressive face with the "hippopotamus"

I have also been reminded in recent times of that superb TV series -
the basic idea came from the antics of MP & iirc former Postmaster-General John Stonehouse,
who tried to fake a drowning suicide when his castles in the air were crashing down

OK.
How about lock all MPs in Westminster and lose the key for a few weeks.
Sent a couple of cute 5 year olds in rags over to Brussels carrying a a note saying 'Please Sir, can we stay in'?
@DGR, I like the cut of your jib Sir! (I think you are a Sir).
I am presuming the 'Two men and Jesus' is a reference to Dire Straits.
Nice!

When the UK has crashed out you will all be watching reruns of Perrin and the likes, mot enough money to maker new programmes, even as dire as Love Island.
The sexism and racism of the era may suit some too.

That should have said senD, not sent.

I can't find the exact clip (I will bet it's out there) where Joan reads Reggie a marketing survey ..

And 22.4 percent of people told us exactly where we could shove our sorbet surprise ...

But here's why we need Reggie taking over with Brexit ...

I was thinking about what was said about the leavers being so angry, even though they won. It reminds me of my ex, who left me for someone else then was really angry with me for years. I'm still not entirely sure why.

My proposal (not that anyone gives a monkeys what I think, It's OK I can handle that), would be that Dear Theresa announces a new, compulsory vote for all UK citizens stating that the voters can have full departure from the EU (Brexit plus, the hard one) OR remain fully.

I would never ever risk that! and I hope dear Theresa doesn't either. The most dangerous thing you can do with stupidity is underestimate it.

pandering to it is also pretty dangerous

It's OK everyone, the EU is crumbling and the whole edifice is about to crash down... the Express has found evidence!

Because the MEP for Dublin has criticised the EU within the parliament (according to them he said the EU railroads smaller member states) the whole EU alliance is crumbling.

So that'll happen any minute now...

@Susan, Me too but this is the wrong thread for that thought.
@Icant. Is that government stupidity, or the voters or both?
Maybe if the lead up to the vote was organised by a neutral country like Russia. How would you like your Brexit, Hard or very hard?

I am presuming the 'Two men and Jesus' is a reference to Dire Straits.

[thumbsup]

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
The EU Brexit deal will be “really quite humiliating”, senior Tory tells the excellent @JGForsyth today. I’ve heard few in Govt, Leavers or Remainers, who now disagree with this.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/6545245/prime-minister-theresa-may-cannot-escape-being-known-as-the-brexit-pm-whether-she-likes-it-or-not/
Prime Minister Theresa May cannot escape being known as the Brexit PM – whether she likes it or not
The Prime Minister needs to understand that Brexit will undoubtedly define her premiership

I am puzzled by the seeming lack of interest and tolerance of the governmental stupidity being expressed in the UK as very few have appreciated that this innocuous vote that was had a couple of years ago is triggering the biggest economic event since the carve up of Europe after the second word war. Unless infinite oil reserves have been found under Coventry and vast seams of gold found in Wales Brexit is going to hurt big time and for years.
Just listened to the latest edition of Dead Ringers. Excellent.

@jessphillips
Jo Cox kept me going. She still does and always will.

In memorium.

@RTB
A couple of comments. 'will be is incorrect statement should say 'The Brexit deal is already humiliating'.
Although no liking of Mrs May, it is the Cameron snake in the grass that really caused it but he seems to have slithered away.

Sorry about the grammar/punctuation fail.
'Will be' is incorrect, the statement should say 'B...........

Jo Cox
RIP

I laughed so much at dead ringers last night I had to take my ventolin.

Jo Cox went to the same high school as me - though she left before I started. She is a real loss to Batley, the whole of West Yorkshire and the whole of the labour party.

And to think a week later Farage had the nerve to stand in front of a camera and declare his side had won without 'a single shot fired'.

Is that government stupidity, or the voters or both?

In that particular scenario it was voter stupidity... but govt stupidity also shouldn't be underestimated.

1 of the many shameful aspects of this is how incredibly badly educated our citizens are in the main. And how uninterested in and lacking in any sense of responsibility for what is going on around them.