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Brexit

Westmistenders: 'No Deal please; We're British'

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 12/06/2018 16:09

It has to be said that its almost as if Tory Rebels are too polite to challenge the PM.

But the stakes are getting higher and higher as it becomes more and more apparent that it is a clear choice between a chaotic no deal situation or a BINO and there is no alternative to that.

If the Tory Rebels don't show their grit and are not prepared to be as strong in their determination as the Brexiteers - out of almost politeness and obligation - then No Deal awaits.

As things move forward, the threat to May once again re-emerges too. If May doesn't do what the ERG say they are minded and will try to oust her. They have nothing to lose by it.

The Tory knives are hidden behind backs one again. Waiting.

Which way will the Withdrawal Bill go? Which way will the Trade Bill later this month go?

We are running out of time and options: for either a deal or no deal.

Time has already run out for many ordinary people - they just might not know that yet, but the decision has already be made about their future.

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DGRossetti · 12/06/2018 16:53

(Yes it is confusing.)

lonelyplanetmum · 12/06/2018 17:17

DGR-that's what we need at this critical political soap moment.

I can quote it by heart " This is the story of two sisters, Jessica Tate and Mary Campbell. These are the Tates and these are the Campbells and this is...."

ScreenQueen · 12/06/2018 17:19
Gin
RedToothBrush · 12/06/2018 17:23

Alex Wickham @WikiGuido
Brexiter MPs have been assured by whips that the govt has not conceded that the Commons will be able to direct negotiations if there is no deal by Nov 30, contrary to some Remainer briefing

TO THE WIRE WE GO.

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WhatWouldScoobyDoo · 12/06/2018 17:24

Red I have no idea if it’s the right thing ... but I wonder if there is some behind the scenes collusion between TM and the rebels here in order to get TM out of the corner she’s in.
Is it correct to read that no deal by 30/11 would make the whole situation the responsibility of the whole parliament i.e. cross party? Or have I misunderstood?

54321go · 12/06/2018 17:25

Maybe that is all the UK will be able to afford in the future, cheap US imports from years ago. Mind you with the new tariffs they won't be that cheap.
Gin? now there's an idea!

lonelyplanetmum · 12/06/2018 17:25

Grieve's amendments for reference

Line 34,

“(5A) Within seven days of a statement under subsection (4) being laid, a Minister of the Crown must move a motion in the House of Commons to seek approval of the Government’s approach.

(5B)

In the event of no political agreement having been reached on a withdrawal agreement by the end of 30 November 2018, a Minister of the Crown must move a motion in the House of Commons setting out how the Government intends to proceed and seeking the approval of the House for that course of action.

(5C) If no political agreement has been reached on a withdrawal agreement by the end of 15 February 2019, the Government must bring the matter before both Houses of Parliament within five days and must follow any direction in relation to the negotiations under Article 50(2) of the Treaty of European Union which has been—

(a) approved by a resolution of the House of Commons, and

(b) the subject of a motion which has either been debated in the House of Lords, or upon which the House of Lords has not concluded a debate on the motion before the end of the period of five sitting days beginning with the first sitting day after the day on which the House of Commons passesthe resolution mentioned in paragraph (a).”

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2017-2019/0212/amend/eudailyyccla0611.1-7.html

RedToothBrush · 12/06/2018 17:32

but I wonder if there is some behind the scenes collusion between TM and the rebels here in order to get TM out of the corner she’s in.

Highly possible.

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woman11017 · 12/06/2018 17:33

Whether its the right thing to do
I know what Sun Tsu would say.

Kenneth Clarke in his intervention to Grieve's speech seemed to warn him not, on previous form, to trust this government.

@IanDunt
If rumours true that govt only concession on meaningful vote is on parts A and B of Grieves then there are some limited concessions there.

For instance it is first moment that motion on Brexit deal has a date enshrined in law, for November 30th, rather than just relying on a Davis promise.

But it does nothing to give Commons right to direct what happens if deal rejected (except perhaps via an amendment to the motion).

That is a major step down from where we were last week, where I really thought it could be won on basis of Lords amendment, not a compromise on a compromise amendment.

Robert Peston:

Theresa May has won today's Brexit battle but may have lost the war.

What do I mean?

Well in half an hour or so we'll have confirmation that MPs will (narrowly) reject the Lords' amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill, that would give parliament the power to force the PM back into negotiations with Brussels if MPs and Lords reject whatever Brexit deal she ultimately negotiates (phew - that was a mouthful).

But the price she is paying for that victory, the price she is paying to Tory Remainer rebels led by Dominic Grieve, is that she has agreed to redraft the Bill, when it returns to the Lords, to take account of the substance of Grieve's own latterly drafted amendent to the bill.

The wheeler-dealing happened in fraught and dramatic negotiations involving Grieve, the chief whip Smith and the solicitor general Buckland, some hugger mugger in corridors, some (unusually) on the floor of the Commons.

May is conceding

1) that within seven days of May agreeing a Brexit deal, a motion to approve said deal must go to the Commons

2) that if there is no Brexit deal agreed by 30 November this year, the government must seek approval for its next course of action from MPs,

and 3) May will consider how to capture Grieve's other demand that MPs and Lords must be able to instruct the government on how to proceed should there be no Brexit deal by 15 Feb 2019.

Arguably this transfers considerable power to MPs over the shape of a future Brexit deal. And it probably means that a no-deal Brexit is no longer any kind of realistic prospect.

It means that if May really believes she was able to put negotiating pressure on the rest of the EU by threatening to Brexit without a deal, she has lost that leverage.

In other words, one of her favourite catchphrases - that no deal is better than a bad deal - is dead. And that will be official in just a few days, when the bill returns to the Lords

www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2071535183171216/.

Icantreachthepretzels · 12/06/2018 17:45

Thanks for the new thread red Flowers
I'm just off to email my thanks to Philip Lee.

Buteo · 12/06/2018 17:47

TomMcTague**@TomMcTague
Today is potentially seismic. One senior official (very much NOT a Brexiteer): “We have now removed every incentive from EU for doing a deal by the end of November.” What happens after November? Parliament takes over. What does it want? EEA+. Who else wants EEA+? Follow the logic

Is this right?

SausageEggAndChips · 12/06/2018 17:48
Wine
RedToothBrush · 12/06/2018 17:52

Dr Phillip Lee MP @DrPhillipLeeMP
Delighted that the Government has agreed to introduce an amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill which will give Parliament the voice I always wanted it to have in the Brexit process. This justifies my decision to resign and makes it a lot less painful.

However, I can only vote on the amendment that is before Parliament. I resigned because I could not support the Government's opposition to the Lords' amendment and still cannot. But the Prime Minister has given her word. I trust her and so I will abstain.

Potentially important point here. In 'putting his trust' into the PM he's bound our future to May staying PM. Another PM could easily ignore this, in theory as they are not yet bound by a vote.

Its not just him either; its all the Rebels. And vice versa.

By this point, this isn't really a revelation, but it should be pointed out, given all the attempts to get rid of May.

This is also a reason why ERG Brexiteers will try and depose her at some point. I think we are now likely to be on direct collision course for a leadership challenge for that reason. The rats in the corner will feel they have nothing to lose, so worth the gamble.

The question is when.

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BigChocFrenzy · 12/06/2018 18:07

Thanks, red Thanks

Why Remainer rebels take so long to pluck up courage:

Reports that some in Lee's local party are planning to deselect him before the next GE
(they might need to hurry !)

It is a risk for any Tory rebel - not just in a Leave-voting seat - because the number of party members is usually tiny,
so easy for militants to take over and they are often hard Brexiters or batshit Ultras

Remember all those decades of Tory politicians and newspapers criticising Labour local parties for the threat of de-selection ?

Note the dead silence from them now, instead of defending the independence of MPs, that they used to claim were an essential part of our Parliamentary democracy
Independence is treason when it is Tory moderates standing up for their beliefs

Icantreachthepretzels · 12/06/2018 18:10

The best thing about my email to Philip Lee was I managed to get a sick burn in about my own crappy Conservative MP. I hope he mentions it next time he sees him 'I got an email from one of your constituents the other day - she thinks you're a dick, lol.' Grin

DGRossetti · 12/06/2018 18:11

So wither Labour ?

lonelyplanetmum · 12/06/2018 18:12

Ridiculous really, all this fuss just to achieve what should be a given.

This hopefully encourages deliberate, measured, comprehensive debate with a view to achieving consensus on an event with potentially cataclysmic consequences for us all. Such a process should have been happening anyway.

Everyone is saying they trust May, but at the end of the day she has been one of the drivers to circumvent Parliamentary process at each critical opportunity.

RedToothBrush · 12/06/2018 18:12

Henry VIII powers are passed by the commons...

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MangoSplit · 12/06/2018 18:14

Place marking

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 12/06/2018 18:14

Henry VIII powers are passed by the commons...
I'm just off to drown myself in Gin Angry

lonelyplanetmum · 12/06/2018 18:14

Henry VIII powers are passed by the commons

QED-happy to avoid due process whenever possible.

mrsreynolds · 12/06/2018 18:15

I no longer understand what's happening

BigChocFrenzy · 12/06/2018 18:15

30 November is too late to instruct on any kind of Brexit

Barnier & co have stated repeatedly that
The deadline is 1 October, so that all 38 national & regional Parliaments have the required 6 months to discuss and vote on the Withdrawal Agreement

It is a BIG gamble whether the E27 would agree to either extend the A50 process or stop the clock,
because this would cause difficulties in current EU business e.g. MEP elections next June
and also set a precedent that A50 doesn't really mean 2 years if the country leaving decides to muck about

Has Barnier said anything new on this recently, to change that position ?

Otherwise, the only change that could be done in that time - maybe - is to beg the EU to let us revoke A50
and then the Council of Ministers (from all 27 countries) & the European Parliament could vote on that as an emergency

RedToothBrush · 12/06/2018 18:17

Alex Wickham @WikiGuido
Brexiters absolutely convinced they have not been played. Both sides think they've won. Tradition would suggest it is the Brexiters who realise a few months down the line they've been screwed.

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RedToothBrush · 12/06/2018 18:18

I no longer understand what's happening

I'm struggling. Not helped by not being able to follow all day.

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