Mrs Reynolds and any one else confused, a rough summary of today:
Today the Commons, had a debate about all the amendment the Lords voted for. No 10 was a bit worried about it, and Dr Lees scared the shit out of them with a surprise resignation, and something of a threat to the whips to take the Tory Rebels seriously. The rumour is there were 4 more junior ministers ready to go. If they did it would mean May would be in serious trouble - far more than David Davis and his threats, as May NEEDS the soft Leavers and Remainers to deliver a deal and stop the no deal cataclysm.
The debate was about ten minutes long and was really just little more than posturing rather than a debate. It was the usual suspects saying the usual things. It was completely pointless as there was no time to say anything anyway.
The Tory Rebels only had sufficient numbers to effectively oppose the meaningful vote amendment. Its about their own relevance, so I guess important. There wasn't much point in them opposing the other ones.
The other Lords Amendments might have had Rebel support, but it was pointless them supporting it if the numbers were not there. Better to prop up May and use the wisdom of knowing which battles to fight and all that
So the Meaningful vote became the only thing that matter. Dominic Grieve tried to help May with his own amendment, but the government refused to back it. However this wasn't enough for the Rebels, who went to the wire saying that they would vote against the government and support Grieve's new amendment instead. The Tory whips spent all afternoon running around trying to talk the Rebels out of it. In the end they had to make major concessions to the rebels - to the point that they should have just adopted Grieve's amendment then and there. But they decided they couldn't as it would make them look weak and sent the ERG lot mental. So we have this fudge where they agreed to stick an amendment in with the Lords next week, to the same effect to save face and stop May being defeated.
If it gets through the Lords (which is still an if - if the government don't table the amendment there will be trouble) then it in effect creates a safety net for stopping no deal.
The whips have told the Brexiteers they haven't promised all this, and there is a government source that is now saying that the government only promised to 'keep talking' (there are counters to this). Both the Rebels and the Brexiteers are claiming victory. Which means one has been stitched up somewhere.
Its something of a doubling the stakes. May has somewhat upped the anti once again.
Alex Wickham @WikiGuido
Senior brexiter: “If Theresa and Julian have sold us out here they are in real trouble. She reassured us all at the 1922. There is no way she can recover if she has now fucked us over.”
Government source: "Brexiteers have nothing to worry about. While the discussions will now continue, no concession has been made. Brexiteers have not been sold a pup."
Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
Which means the Remainers have been. Trouble ahead.
Remember May needs the remainers/soft leavers numbers or she is toast. They are the ones keeping her as PM. Again if she screws them, they will view it as having little to lose if the alternative is 'no deal'. She will have out lived her usefulness.
Who she has screwed over is important. When they realise it, is important.
And its looking like it might be the Remainers:
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Finally, after 2 hours of silence from No10, a statement: DexEU spokesman: "We have not, and will not, agree to the House of Commons binding the Government's hands in the negotiations". Grieve et al thought the PM just had.
The argument here, is that a safety net ends the EU's incentive to do a good deal with the UK in October. Thus we go to a situation beyond the 11th hour of the EU's deadline. Which tbh, I think most were already expecting, given that we haven't got a clue what we want yet.
We also still have amendments re: the EEA option to come tomorrow. Labour are opposed to this, but the Rebels think they have the number if Labour support them. Barnier has stepped in today and said that Labour's major argument to opposing the Lords amendment is pile of bullcrap. There is talk that Corbyn will have resignations tomorrow as a result.
We shall see.
The long and short of it, is that May keeps playing both sides off, to delay making the decision that will send one of them nuts. But everytime she does that she makes the situation more volatile.
The Trade Bill on the customs union later this month could be more of the same... of course if May screwed the Remainers now, they wouldn't let her again for that....
Its like chess. And I think May is slowly being check mated if you ask me, by painting herself into a corner...