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Brexit

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 03/06/2018 16:36

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

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Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

OP posts:
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Dobby1sAFreeElf · 12/06/2018 10:36

@bbclaurak
Laura Kuenssberg Retweeted Nick Boles MP
I wonder who you can possibly be referring to
@NickBoles
I don't agree with @DrPhillipLeeMP about the idea of holding a referendum on the Brexit deal. But I admire his honesty and integrity. So much classier to resign on principle when nobody is expecting it, than to threaten resignation but never follow through.

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 12/06/2018 10:45

I can't say I disagree with his points on Brexit here at all

Dr Phillip Lee's resignation statement in full:

Resigning as a minister from the Government is a very difficult decision because it goes against every grain in my soul. The very word resign conveys a sense of giving up, but that is the last thing I will do. I take public service seriously and responsibly. That is the spirit that has always guided me as a doctor and continues to guide me as a politician.

For me, resigning is a last resort – not something that I want to do but something I feel I must do because, for me, such a serious principle is being breached that I would find it hard to live with myself afterwards if I let it pass. I come to this decision after a great deal of personal reflection and discussion with family, friends and trusted colleagues.

The main reason for my taking this decision now is the Brexit process and the Government’s wish to limit Parliament’s role in contributing to the final outcome in a vote that takes place today.

If, in the future, I am to look my children in the eye and honestly say that I did my best for them I cannot, in all good conscience, support how our country’s exit from the EU looks set to be delivered.

As a Member of Parliament, I also have a major responsibility to my constituency of Bracknell. In extensive consultations with local employers, both large and small, I have been warned that they expect Brexit as it is currently being pursued, whatever the negotiated settlement, will damage their business. I have spoken to people, many of whom have lived, worked and raised their family here, whose fears for their futures I am not always able to allay. Regrettably, it seems inevitable that the people, economy and culture of my constituency will be affected negatively, and I cannot ignore that it is to them that I owe my first responsibility.

Sadly, from within government I have found it virtually impossible to help bring sufficient change to the course on which we are bound.

I voted to remain in the European Union and have not changed my view that continued membership would have been the better strategic course. Even so, I believe that it would be impossible and wrong to seek to go back to how things were before the referendum. We cannot and should not turn back the clock.

However, as the negotiations are unfolding, two things are becoming clear.

• The practicalities, logistics and implications of leaving the EU are far more complex than was ever envisaged and certainly more complex than the people were told in 2016. The UK is not going to be ready in time, neither is the EU, and both would suffer from a rushed or fudged agreement.

• The outcome that is emerging will be neither fully to leave the EU, nor fully to stay. This is not an outcome for which anyone knowingly voted. In my view, this raises the important principle of legitimacy: I do not believe it would be right for the Government to pursue such a course without a plan to seek a confirmatory mandate for the outcome. And I believe that Parliament should have the power to ask the Government to adjust its course in the best interests of the people whom its Members represent.

In my medical experience, if a course of treatment is not working, then I review it. I also have a duty to get my patient’s informed consent for that action.

If Brexit is worth doing, then it is certainly worth doing well; regardless of how long that takes. It is, however, irresponsible to proceed as we are, so we should:

• recognise that the UK and EU are not ready for Brexit and pause, extend or revoke Article 50 so that we do not leave before we are ready.

• re-engage with our European and international friends to talk about how to achieve the aims that we share for the future in ways that respect individual countries’ interests and sovereignty. Since 2016, electorates in many countries across Europe have expressed similar concerns to those that we expressed in the referendum and so much is changing, and will continue to change, across the whole of our continent.

• empower our Parliament so that its role is not limited to making fake choices – such as between a ‘bad deal’ and a cliff-edge ‘no deal’. Our Parliament should be able to direct our Government to change course in our interests. In all conscience, I cannot support the Government’s decision to oppose this amendment because doing so breaches such fundamental principles of human rights and Parliamentary sovereignty. A vote between bad and worse is not a meaningful vote. And I cannot bring myself to vote for it in the bastion of liberty, freedom and human rights that is our Parliament.

When the Government is able to set out an achievable, clearly defined path – one that has been properly considered, whose implications have been foreseen, and that is rooted in reality and evidence, not dreams and dogma – it should go to the people, once again, to seek their confirmation.

I will miss the Ministry of Justice and the enormous privilege of guiding our Government’s work to turn around the lives of vulnerable young offenders and female offenders; to mobilise the remarkable power of sport to transform lives and cut crime; and to improve how we deal with offenders’ health and mental health which drives so much human behaviour.

I have had the privilege to work with inspiring, dedicated people; to be touched by the appalling stories that some of those caught up in our criminal justice system have shared with me – both victims and offenders; and in a small way to bring some influence to bear to help make our society more just and more secure.

The experience has been deeply humbling. For the last two years, I have been completely committed to enabling our criminal justice system to serve our society better. There is so much more to do and I wish the department and its excellent ministerial team all the strength that they need to drive through the necessary reforms. I regret that I feel forced to leave and will remain a strong supporter.

I strongly supported Theresa May’s bid to lead the Conservative Party in 2016. I have great respect for her and still believe that she is the best person to lead the country at this exceptionally difficult time. But the fact is that we have to make many big changes for our country to have a positive future. There is a great deal of work to be done to lead with more strength, vision and integrity. We must be honest and open at all times with each other and with the public. We must renew our effort to bring the nation back together and proceed in our collective national interest, drawing on the best talent our country has to offer.

We must also have an eye beyond our shores, sustaining our European friendships through a difficult time because what is very clear is that, in our interconnected age, it is nations with allies that will thrive.

It is important that individual ministers and Parliamentarians should be able to influence and speak up on these issues. But effective Government in our country also relies on the important principle of collective responsibility. Resigning my post in this Government will allow me to work towards what I believe can be a better future, inside or outside the EU, for my children, my constituents and my country.

That will start today when MPs vote on the House of Lords’ amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill and I will support the amendment which – if it is adopted – will empower Parliament to reject a bad deal and direct the Government to re-enter discussions, extending or pausing negotiations which are being badly rushed because of the deadline that Article 50 imposes.

We will not change our country overnight – but we can and must hand our children a better legacy.

DGRossetti · 12/06/2018 10:57

Just emailed Mr. Lee, giving support. I suspect he'll need it, and who knows ... the nice emails might outnumber the trolls.

Motheroffourdragons · 12/06/2018 11:06

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ElenaGreco123 · 12/06/2018 11:10

Has anyone seen a list of Labour MPs who signed this letter? www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-brexit-corbyn-freedom-movement-immigration-mp-remain-a8393906.html

JWIM · 12/06/2018 11:18

I have also e-mailed Dr Lee in support.

54321go · 12/06/2018 11:21

A beautifully written resignation letter by Dr Lee, more consideration in writing this than all the ridiculous soundbites by far too many others.
Although there would be an 'embarrassment factor' I would like the UK to attempt not to leave.

lonelyplanetmum · 12/06/2018 11:23

I have also just sent a brief e-mail to Dr Lee in support, telling him more of his integrity are needed in politics not less.

user1471448556 · 12/06/2018 11:28

Dr Lee is a brave and principled politician - a rarity in today's climate. I've just sent him a thank you email. At last, someone who is giving consideration to the impact of Brexit on our country (and on our children and their opportunities), both now and in the future.

Hasenstein · 12/06/2018 11:36

Have also just emailed him with my thanks for his principled stand and hopes that others will now summon up the courage to follow his lead in the interests of the country, rather than just narrow party interests.

Motheroffourdragons · 12/06/2018 11:38

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Motheroffourdragons · 12/06/2018 11:40

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DGRossetti · 12/06/2018 11:49

in hindsight Grin ...

as soon as the referendum results were known, Remain MPs in Leave constituencies should have resigned, as should Leave MPs in Remain constituencies. Then their constituencies would have had a shot at sorting things out first, before saddling all of us with the intolerable situation of having MPs feel they can disregard their constituents views just because some other constituents feel differently.

Or, alternatively just stop the fiction that MPs are in any way "local".

woman11017 · 12/06/2018 11:59

This.

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.
Motheroffourdragons · 12/06/2018 12:01

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woman11017 · 12/06/2018 12:10

Banks and Wigmore at MPs questions:
Jo Stevens asking about Banks and his relationship with Labour Leave.
Not followed up.
Where his money comes from, very mysterious.
Not followed up.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2018/jun/12/arron-banks-and-andy-wigmore-face-mps-leave-eu-brexit-russia-live

So utterly frustrating when this committee appearance is just tainting evidence which should be being pursued by the police.

RedToothBrush · 12/06/2018 12:10

Laura Kuennsberg @ bbclaurak
1. If govt does move on meaningful vote they'd be advised to do it soon, MPs warn privately - in December they only conceded an inch at the v end of the debate (was Dominic Raab as minister) and lost the vote partly as a result of hanging on until v last minute
2. A lot of chatter that govt may well lose the meaningful vote now if they don't give some kind of concession
3. Govt source says there will be NO concession on meaningful vote amendment this afternoon - let’s see

Let's see indeed.

I am afk for next few hours. I'm out the house until 3pm cos I have people viewing it. Will be back shortly after.

I realise this is page 37 and my suspicion is the next few hours could be full of Brexit news.

So if I'm not back in time please start a new thread. I think someone already came up with a title for it a few pages back.

Cross your toes people. This could be the crunch.

OP posts:
woman11017 · 12/06/2018 12:18

Cross your toes people Everything crossed, for your house viewing and for all of us, red

Peregrina · 12/06/2018 12:28

I don't agree with @DrPhillipLeeMP about the idea of holding a referendum on the Brexit deal.

He doesn't refer to a Referendum. A mandate could be given via a General Election; a mandate which Theresa May, losing her majority, did not win for her vision/hodge-podge of Brexit.

Well done Dr Lee - thoughtful and considered.

Measlymiddleages · 12/06/2018 12:36

Just had a general constituency email from my (Lab) MP saying he will be supporting all 15 Lords amendments. He writes that he believes the rebels are likely to win the meaningful vote amendment but not the EEA amendment.

Tanith · 12/06/2018 12:38

Philip Lee’s near neighbour, John Redwood, appears to have no such crisis of conscience. A Leave MP in a Remain constituency, he shows no intention of honouring the vote of his constituents.

It makes me very angry. I actually live in a Remain area with a Remain MP. Despite this, Jeremy Hunt will almost certainly put his own career and Party first.

woman11017 · 12/06/2018 12:41

@faisalislam
Friends of Lee tell me:

Done on principle that he backs a meaningful vote, can’t back Government today.

Not a coordinated effort, but many ministers share general concerns re Brexit strategy.

Named a minister they think will follow soon.

Expectations of a leadership contest.

DGRossetti · 12/06/2018 13:09

Expectations of a leadership contest.

All a bit boy who cried wolf ...

Can anyone find a week when there weren't ...

user1486062886 · 12/06/2018 13:09

I think Dr Lee should have resigned as a Mp not just a minister, his constituents voted to leave the EU, if he can’t carry their wishes through then he should step down and let someone else do it.
He mentions in his statement talking to business and people who maybe affected by the vote, but not talking to the people and business that voted to leave, perhaps he didn’t want to listen to both sides only the side that fitted his views.
If true what he says in his resignation statement that the practicalities, logistics and implications of leaving the EU are far more complex them every envisaged is a sad indictment of the government and the civil service, don’t forget the government by a vast majority they gave the public a vote, which in my area was always going to be an obvious leave vote

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