Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

[RedToothBrush]

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

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Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

Harry Cole @ mrharrycole
Appears Geneva airport is further down the Brexit planning road than Downing Street.

the pig-headed refusal to face up to them by Brexiteers

And from Remainers. Lots believe it can't happen because we're rational/it's a bit OTT.

Thanks for the new thread red
I've just got back from Rome - I was there as the new government came in. There was a massive military presence in the city all week which was rather ... unsettling. But there were also masses of EU flags flying all around. I was there this time 2 years ago and I don't remember seeing all those flags back then, so maybe they are trying to send out a firm pro EU message in the face of people trying to exit the euro etc.

I can't believe how much brexit seems to have crumbled since I last checked the threads on Tuesday. It just seems to me that it cannot keep going on for much longer (and with negotiations this month I guess we are getting to crunch time.) But then - it has all seemed like it was coming to a head before and then the can managed to get kicked.

I'm really glad the possibility of an Armageddon next March has finally hit the main stream news (how long have we all known? Why aren't the news outlets monitoring this thread?) I mean 'project fear' is one thing but 'project end of the country world' might cause a few of the leavers, who voted for the nhs or needed change because of austerity not the EU, to change their minds.

When you add on all the new 18 year olds in the past 2 years and subtract the dead over 65s, include people who didn't bother to vote last time but won't make the same mistake again, and the remainernows - we really don't need that many more people to change their minds between now and a vote.

Hester what do you think the future might look like?
I know you don't have a crystal ball and I would be interested in your views.

Thanks for the new thread RTB - as always, a painfully accurate summary of the state of play.

Here's something that passed me by: I went into a local charity shop earlier today and came across Daphne DuMaurier's final novel, Rule Britannia.

“The time is a few years in the future. England has withdrawn from the Common Market and, on the brink of bankruptcy, has decided that salvation lies in a union . . . with the United States”. The union is supposed to be “an equal partnership”, a special relationship, if you like. But “to some people it soon begins to look like a takeover bid”.

The book is the story of a woman called Emma and her family, and how a Cornish town rebels against the US/UK alliance.

For £1 (aka €1.14) I couldn't resist it!

That's probably Fox's preferred post-Brexit scenario, arborea, not his emergency fallback

I am going to order that book.

Prettybird, from the old thread:
...despite the violence heavy handed approach, ultimately all those countries - India, Kenya, Ireland etc - did end up independent. All Britain did was delay the inevitable and cost lives

And don't forget Palestine...

The thing that jumps out from that is that the same brutality was repeated time after time. Britain did not learn any lessons from any of the mistakes made.

Thank you red.

I still don't believe another vote would create a different result. I agree that it would have to be a landslide for Remain to make a difference. I've just had a Save Penka email forwarded to me by quite a sensible friend which is about a cow which will be killed due to 'EU red tape'. I haven't explored this story yet but it smells like a Boris bendy banana.

Theworldisfull what do you think the future might look like?
A good question! I've had a think and this is what I'd like to see happening in the future. I think some of it's possible too, after we've emerged from this mad era. The young people I know just 'see' all this, and they are the future, after all.

Directly leading from the Brexit fallout:
-it'll be made illegal for politicians and the press to lie, or incite racial hatred.
-a politician's charter will put 'serving the good of the country' as the top over-riding value, before serving party.
-a recalibration of what is considered to be worthy, i.e: those jobs doing good for others valued more than those 'making' money.
-women will become prominent in public life, leading to more inventive and 'compassionate' policy.
-we'll gradually move towards a more open world-view: an understanding that we live in a globally mutually interdependent age and the future of the planet depends upon all countries working together.
-a growing acceptance that Britain is not special or different in the world order, and a humbling of national ambition.
-all people recognised as equal. Immigrants valued for what they bring; treated as humans; not demonised.
-the health service being universally acclaimed as the priceless national treasure it really is, and it being properly funded (partly by more taxation from the wealthy).

And not directly Brexit outcomes:
-education being shifted away from the knowledge-based, targets and testing-driven culture to something where children are taught to be resilient, open-minded, co-operative and able to access information they need. Also young peoples' mental health is prioritised, and equality and tolerance emphasised.
-the value of higher education for young people seen as benefitting the whole of society, so in fairness the young not bearing all of the cost.
-the environment placed at the top centre of all policy-making. Speedy recognition of the importance of fossil-fuel reduction, the resurrection of the renewables industry.

Well, wouldn't that be nice?
Maybe there'll also be a massive enquiry into how all this was allowed to happen...

I go out for half an afternoon and a new thread gets into its second page!

Farage - yes well, who remembers him extolling how well Norway was doing outside the EU?

Britain to unite be taken over by the USA - yes, my feeling is that is what the arch brexiters want all along - hence their rushing off to greet Trump. The only thought which consoles me is that it will probably take 20-30 years and I will be dead by then.

Meanwhile, my grandson will be off to Poland or Estonia to find work....

As for a new Referendum - it's hard to predict what the result would be. Once May called her GE and the rules around running a GE kicked in, then her anticipated majority vanished in a puff of smoke. We would have to have the same rules - no false promises allowed on the side of buses, no Farage running a campaign alongside the official one for a couple of starters.

-women will become prominent in public life, leading to more inventive and 'compassionate' policy.

This does not necessarily follow - Theresa May and Priti Patel being two women who immediately spring to mind. I don't doubt that Theresa May believes the guff she spouts about being concerned about those 'just about managing' but it doesn't translate into practice. What about those who are not managing? She's silent about those.

Hear, hear Hester. That is the catharsis we need. My worry is we need more nemesis first.

I know what you mean Peregrina, and I agree.
Theresa May and Priti Patel being two women who immediately spring to mind.

But I think those two women have been following the pattern/ filling the mould established over centuries by men. Not seeing that another way is possible and desirable. And I know that many men would want this change too. It's just that up to now male-dominated politics has evolved into this combative style with values warped towards benefitting certain sections of society. It doesn't have to be like this, and I think slowly it will change towards a different ethos.
It will all take a long time, but I am positive!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-44142843?__twitter_impression=true
The English question: Young are less proud of nationality

It's a map of leave / remain.

And English supremecy.

Damn I missed that Sunday times article. Does anyone have a link or is it paywalled?

I think it’s a very sensible idea to keep your own stores of water, canned and dried food and essential medicines at home, in the event of a short term supply disruption. Especially in high population areas such as London. You only need a lack of food for 3 days before people will start looking in desperation.

I think a new referendum would still produce a leave vote. The amount of denial is still so high, there's a general basic lack of awareness of any politics (I see in my own family - well-educated people who just haven't been following the Brexit process in any detail and people like my friend who made a decision to not follow it at all and is surprised at things like price rises as a consequence).

Plus, you have the far right cheerleaders whipping things up on Twitter and Facebook and MPs and 'think tank' people allowed on television/in newspapers to spout blatant untruths unchallenged.

I also don't know how you counter arguments like 'we were fine before the EU and we'll be fine after', 'this is just scaremongering like the Millennium Bug' and 'it can't possibly be that bad, something will turn up and anyway, we will all pull together like in the war!'. These are all immune to facts, it seems.

I dread a second vote. Not least because I think some of my older family members would still vote Leave. It's far easier to sell a dream than reality. Just look at all the responses to the No Deal story. People rant on without a) realising it's a No Deal scenario b) without even engaging with the detail in any way. So depressing.

This is all such a worry for me because nothing has reassured me that this shower of bastards won't blunder into a No Deal scenario either through further incompetence or by design. I wish I could run away.

Less than 300 days to March 30...

(Does anybody else remember a TV series "1990" with Edward Woodward?)

The Millenium bug one ought to be easy to counteract - those of us involved at the time knew that at least 5 year's preparation went into it. Old systems were either adapted or retired. What didn't happen was people crossing their fingers, hoping for the best, crying Project Fear. Not that those who witter about it would be convinced.

As for 'we were fine before the EU'. It depends when you are talking - in the 19th Century when we were building up the Empire and still had industries making things, so that we could be called the workshop of the world and we had people like Brunel, Bazalgette, Caxton, then yes. If you are talking post war when we had bankrupted ourselves and the Colonies were busily seeking independence, then no, we were not fine. I have said this before but in the sixties I lived in a textile making town, who were even then losing out to competition from Asia (not Germany, note). British cars then were considered a bit of a joke - who had not heard of the 'Friday afternoon car', which was rubbish?

But I am preaching to the converted and the non-converted won't listen, or will whine that no one told them.

The Millenium bug one ought to be easy to counteract

Only for those not impervious to facts.

Re the Millennium Bug: because they didn't see or do the work done, it didn't happen. Ergo it wasn't needed

They're also that first ones that would have complained if there had been problems because " someone should have done something". Always someone else's fault, someone else's responsibility.

My df tried that millennium bug crap with me once. He only shut up when I reminded him his company had employed me on a summer contract running checks on their pcs and helping arrange replacements of those that failed. But my df can be very impervious to facts.

Place marking