Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

[RedToothBrush]

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

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Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

One reason MPs may not want to speak out:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-birmingham-44438468

Birmingham Yardley Labour MP Jess Phillips (a rebel, advocating "soft" Brexit) said in one night she received 600 rape threats
and was threatened with violence and aggression every day.

Even a Norway option isn't good enough - they are not in the Customs Union. It's Norway + which is required, dressed up as something else.

None of the main rebels identified with Dominic Grieve and threatening to rebel actually spoke and some leaving the meeting thought there was a danger they might’ve been provoked by the public pressure
www.channel4.com/news/may-to-tory-mps-give-me-strength

I'm not sure what that ''public pressure' refers to but the modest gathering of large shouty pink men, holding pint glasses and attacking our police on Saturday afternoon in London, might have helped focus brexist tory minds.

Bit like what happened in the US pre 2016 election? Funded by whom, one wonders.

600* rape threats what a base culture this one has become. They clearly base some of their favourite techniques on those used by the isis, or whatever they're called now.

People will look back on 23.6.16 as as naive and disastrous as the 'Arab Spring'. ( that's been said before on this thread)

Farage has been interviewing Arron Banks on his radio show. Farage asked if there was Russian collusion in the brexit campaign. (because of course he didn't already know! )
Banks says: maybe at a low level.

So that's a definite 'yes', admitted by 'the bad boys of brexit' themselves.
This needs to be investigated. This should be enough to annul the result. In a sane world, it would be.

Banks looks very sweaty and stressed in the interview pictures. Good.

When asked by Farage if he had used the Brexit campaign for his financial gain, Banks replied: Not really

or - yes - in everyday English.

I'm not sure if the financial gain is Banks' - or the Russian ambassador's - who he had two lunches and a cup of tea with, whilst discussing Brexit.

And just to point out - Banks looks stressed and sweaty when he is on his friend's radio show being served soft questions. It does not bode well for him if he gets called in front of a committee and made to appear.

Regular lurker here, name change for personal reasons...

DH and I moved within the UK with DH’s work a couple of years ago... rented in our new location as we weren’t sure how things would go. Finally seen a house we would quite like to buy & have to make our minds up this week - BUT have a deep underlying concern that we shouldn’t be buying now at all.

I just don’t know if this is completely irrational - we don’t have other modern languages, DCs are settled at school, etc, therefore no real prospect of leaving. So would it really make any difference to us if we had bought a house now or not if all turns to custard???

DH shares my concerns (although is a bit worried we are collectively panicking) but anybody else I try to speak to thinks I’m crazy .

@bbclaurak

1. Govt source says David Davis is going to put his name to the compromise customs amendment after Tory backbenchers, with govt coordination, have found a way of avoiding getting beaten in Commons on Wednesday

1. Numbers for govt still dicey on 'meaningful vote' - how much power should Parliament have over final Brexit deal - they could still be defeated tomorrow

So they're going to vote for a crash out, and absolute executive rule. Britain is the 2018 'dirty man of europe', and these MPs and journalists have filthy hands.

But am I right in thinking that no matter what they pass, the Lords can keep throwing it back at them? And due to TM's decision to have a 2 year parliamentary session, their ability to do this won't expire until after brexit?

So in essence, whatever they agree to tomorrow - it's still not home dry, because the Lords can simply send it back?

Very difficult to weigh the risks of what might happen, flap
If house prices crash, you could be in negative equity and / or lose your capital deposit

However, that is only a problem if:

either
You / your OH becomes unemployed due to a Brexit recession and can't find another job to pay the mortgage

or
You / your OH is transferred to another part of the country within a few years - or even after 1-2 years if businesses reorganise staff & sites after Brexit -
and can't find a suitable job, due to recession, within feasible commuting distance

You could buy now and Brexit could turn out ok, BINO.
Prices in that case might well rise in the SE & London.

Personally, I'd hold off buying until a Withdrawal Agreement has been signed - and with a framework of the Norway+ type agreed,
because a bare bones WTO or even CETA type would probably hammer the economy.

However, that's just me being risk averse:
I've bought 4 properties over my adult life and ended up with a good overall gain, but 2 were losses and 2 were wins

The main thing to remember is that property is an investment, where you can gain or lose a lot of money.
You have to weigh up the probabilities and what you can recover from fairly soon, vs what will cause lasting damage.

But am I right in thinking that no matter what they pass, the Lords can keep throwing it back at them? And due to TM's decision to have a 2 year parliamentary session, their ability to do this won't expire until after brexit?

The truthful - and meaningful - answer is "what's written down ?"

The UK doesn't have a constitution - it has "convention". Which has already been pissed over enough ... what's one more infraction ?

I'm holding off buying here in Germany, even though prices are rising fast, especially in the Frankfurt area
which might do quite well after Brexit#

My concern is not losing my job - it's v safe, I'm near retirement and I'd buy entirely from capital anyway, no mortgage
It's just the very small chance that a no-deal Brexit could also mean no-deal on expats
and that Germany / the UK make it too difficult for me to stay here longterm
This is because buying & selling costs are v high here and also I hate the hassle of moves

Phew ! That's really risk-averse ! but I'm ancient & lazy

Must say I would buy, inarightflap. I think there may be a bump in prices shortly after Brexit and then a very unstable period where some areas soar and others crash. I wouldn't necessarily buy an investment property now (but I wouldn't anyway!) but a house to live your life in - I definitely would. I'd try a lowish offer though.

@Inarightflap
There is no need for massive worry and stress over this. There will probably be price rises and some unrest but the sun will still shine and very little will actually fail.
Shame you need to decide this week but a total disaster probably won't happen. If your finances are 'marginal' it may be best to hold off a little longer, but check on mortgage terms to see if a bit of 'wriggle' is possible if necessary in the future.

The Norths think there is a 90% chance of no-deal and an economic apocalypse
I think they are far too gloomy, simply because the Tories want to get re-elected within the next 30 years

However, the govt are ignorant, arrogant & incompetent - a dangerous combination
Which is why my private odds are 50% no deal apocalypse and 50% BINO little change

BSI (British Standards Institution) are moving their HQ from Milton Keynes to the Netherlands
This is to ensure they can continue their work post-Brexit

I know they have a huge number of clients covering almost every country in the world,
but still, I regarded BSI as a British icon of expertise

https://www.bsigroup.com/en-GB/about-bsi/media-centre/press-releases/2017/Product-Certification/

@BigChoc
Although I suppose it is not written down I thought it was already agreed from the early days of the negotiations that 'settled' Expats from either direction were OK as they are, up until the stroke of midnight 'Brexit day'?

But do the current lot of Tories at the top of the party care about the future of the Tory party? Or do they just care about their own short term gains and status? I suspect the latter.

Although I suppose it is not written down I thought it was already agreed from the early days of the negotiations that 'settled' Expats from either direction were OK as they are, up until the stroke of midnight 'Brexit day'?

As the UK government keep reminding us, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. In the letter TM sent to all her MPs last week she specifically said she would not sign any withdrawal agreement until she got her trade deal.

54321 "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"
Although I would be astonished if the UK either side went back on what was in the December draft re expats …

The EU set 3 prerequisites for a WA (Withdrawal Agreement)

1. expat rights
2. NI border
3. exit bill

May has reneged on 2) and this seems a roadblock to any WA
Ultras keep saying "walk away" without paying 3) and Cabinet Brexiters keep saying only pay if there is agreement on a future trade framework

So it is just possible 1) might fall, through either malice or incompetence.
if so, almost certainly from the Uk side

The Ultras tactics seem to be to keep delaying until it is too late for a WA to be approved
Remember, the A50 default is no deal on anything

My expectation is that even a no-deal Brexit would be only no-deal wrt a framework for future trade
i.e. still having a bare bones WA on expats, flights and say EURATOM

I had better get off MN and work on my European customer base then, or find a 'local' to marry!

Luxemburg PM's comment remains the best summary:
"They were in with loads of opt-outs, now they are out and want a load of opt-ins.”

POLITICO has a guide to all the bits of the EU that Britain wants in its post-Brexit world

(it's an embarrassing list, but this govt has no sense of shame)

s://www.politico.eu/article/12-brexit-cherries-the-uk-wants-to-pick/

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/11/uk-government-very-seriously-examining-arron-banks-russian-links

Home secretary Sajid Javid has said that Arron Banks’s Russian connections are being examined “very seriously” by two ministers in two departments
who want to establish if there was an attempt to undermine parliamentary democracy during the Brexit campaign.

< MI5 comes under his dept. The other could be Dept of Justice >

'Catastrophic' no-deal Brexit a real possibility, says Vince Cable

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/11/catastrophic-no-deal-brexit-a-real-possibility-says-vince-cable

“But as time passes and they can’t reconcile their internal differences, you begin to think that not getting any kind of deal at all is back on the agenda.
We’d rather discounted it, but it’s a real possibility again.”
…
…leaving the EU without a deal would be “potentially catastrophic”.
Asked if he could think of a policy disaster of similar magnitude he said: “Not really. There have been disastrous errors on policy – Iraq, Suez – but nothing like this.”

Thank you so much for your thoughts, Bigchoc, Annandale and 54321! (Apologies I don’t know how to make names bold 😳).

You’ve really helped clarify the issue in my mind... When we moved it here was from a part of the country where there were many jobs in the areas DH and I work in, to a place where we are happier and have a much better standard of living - but there is a MUCH smaller potential job pool. (And it’s far away enough to mean there is no practical possibility of commuting back to the previous area).

I think it’s this extra vulnerability on top of all the background horror which is making me so nervous about buying now. I need to discuss with DH but think we have to consider whether we would intensely regret letting the particular house we are interested in now go if we decided to wait (a few months??) to see where the exit arrangements end up.