Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 03/06/2018 16:36

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

----------------------

Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

----------------------

What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
33
DGRossetti · 04/06/2018 09:25

Does anybody else remember a TV series "1990" with Edward Woodward?

They all drove 2CVs ?

I saw it when it first came out ... so would have been 11 (thanks DM ! Smile) very dystopian as I recall. Had a definite look & feel.

BeyondThePage · 04/06/2018 09:34

They all drove 2CVs

haha - yep - but the main message was "We are an island - we will stop people coming in and leaving" and the government actively prevented "the brain drain" by force - I see it coming...

Theworldisfullofgs · 04/06/2018 11:35

Thanks Hester

I'd like that to and I worry we've got a lot to get through to get there. There is a view that we were due a crisis to recalibrate but the financial crisis wasn't enough.

DGRossetti · 04/06/2018 11:38

There is a view that we were due a crisis to recalibrate but the financial crisis wasn't enough.

Maybe UKIPs Black Death imagery wasn't so wide of the mark.

Who's going to practice sewing themselves into their funeral shroud ?

Peregrina · 04/06/2018 11:39

The recalibration could happen, as it did after the fascism of the 1930s and the horrors of the last war. It took at least 35 years for this consensus to begin to break down. We should try to be hopeful, not in the pie in the sky unicorn way of the Brexiters but taking inspiration from those in the past who committed themselves to building a better society.

Peregrina · 04/06/2018 11:42

The Black Death argument was one employed on one of these threads about a year ago by the Brexit Arms people. Eventually yes, it improved the stock of the world population by wiping out all the sick, but it took something like 200 years before the benefits began to be felt, so it was pretty grim until then.

DGRossetti · 04/06/2018 11:46

The recalibration could happen, as it did after the fascism of the 1930s and the horrors of the last war. It took at least 35 years for this consensus to begin to break down. We should try to be hopeful, not in the pie in the sky unicorn way of the Brexiters but taking inspiration from those in the past who committed themselves to building a better society.

If we learn nothing else from history (and nature) it should be the idea of action, overshoot, correction as a continuum. (Lemming population springs to mind Grin). Society isn't a perfectly damped system.

Not all generations have it as good as their predecessors, as we are now finding out. Maybe the fact that we are now aware of that in a way which was never possible before mass communication can make a difference ? Or maybe it will fan the flames.

As a couple of teachers pointed out, in my history studies ... it's The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. One of literatures less subtle spoiler alerts.

DGRossetti · 04/06/2018 11:51

The Black Death argument was one employed on one of these threads about a year ago by the Brexit Arms people. Eventually yes, it improved the stock of the world population by wiping out all the sick, but it took something like 200 years before the benefits began to be felt,

for whom ? Immediate survivors had it cushty. Massive shortage of labour meant the end of feudalism (despite laws trying to buck the market).

You'd have your pick of where to live - and land to choose (many settlements abandoned because of the black death simply disappeared forever).

In fact, it could be said that 200 years on (1580s ?) the status quo was pretty much reestablished Hmm. "Christianity as a stabilising force prior to the Enlightenment" hasn't yet been written. But if it was, I'm sure it would explain something.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/06/2018 11:51

The answer to Brexiters who say we were ok before joining the then Common Market:

  • The world has not stood still in the last 45 years. The UK can't step out of trading etc on its own for 45 years, then step back in and expect nothing has changed

The answer to those who say Australia, Korea etc are not in the EU and are doing fine:

  • Those countries have continued to develop trading links over the past 45 years, whereas the UK after a no-deal Brexit will be at Year Zero, with no trade deals with the EU or anyone else

  • Also, nearly all counties are forming regional trading blocs with their nearest neighbours
    The Uk is the only country to be leaving their regional trading bloc.

Icantreachthepretzels · 04/06/2018 11:54

One of literatures less subtle spoiler alerts.
Grin

If we can avoid disaster, I am hopeful that we will be better off for all this madness. It was a much needed wake up call and can be used to build a better, fairer more decent and more honest nation.

But I fear the disaster is coming no matter what. And I don't believe a fair and free society is going to rise from the ashes off food riots and martial law. More like North Korea Mk 2.

DGRossetti · 04/06/2018 11:55

The answer to Brexiters who say we were ok before joining the then Common Market:

The answer is simple.

WE WEREN'T

Maybe if you were naice and lived in a Cholmondley-Warner infomercial, it was paradise on earth ...

BigChocFrenzy · 04/06/2018 11:56

re the Black Death:
wiping out ⅓ of the population can indeed create a scarcity of labour and hence better conditions for those who didn't die.

BUT that Final solution is not normally in any party manifesto or referendum
Do they want to propose a vote on such a drastic change ?

Are Brexiters volunteering to be the ⅓ who are eliminated, to benefit the survivors ? Hmm
If we are being coldly practical, it would be the old who would be eliminated, as mostly being non-productive re paid work and requiring disproportionately more resources, such as the NHS and pensions.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/06/2018 11:58

The Uk economy was indeed rapidly falling behind the then 6 Common Market members
Hence the then desperation to join.

Icantreachthepretzels · 04/06/2018 11:59

Immediate survivors had it cushty. Massive shortage of labour meant the end of feudalism
I think 'cushty' is a relative term there, though.
A bit like hormone ridden beef, after a years starvation, will be 'not that bad'.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/06/2018 12:00

I think Brexiters mean we ween't rationed or starving before joining, no port logjams (usually)
Rather a low bar
I do remember capital exchange controls though - why I removed all my assets (bar a moderate sized Nationwide account) from the UK

lonelyplanetmum · 04/06/2018 12:59

The answer to Brexiteers who say we were ok before joining the Common Market ( posted before).

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35533616

DGRossetti · 04/06/2018 12:59

I think Brexiters mean...

And that's the crux, isn't it ? We have to guess what "brexiteers meant" since getting two of them to state clear what they mean - without contradiction, hesitation or repetition - seems an impossible task.

RedToothBrush · 04/06/2018 13:15

Sky News @SkyNews
Arlene Foster says any deal that treats Northern Ireland differently to the rest of the UK is her party's "only red line" in Brexit negotiations

news.sky.com/story/northern-ireland-must-have-same-status-as-uk-after-brexit-says-dup-leader-arlene-foster-11393770?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter&__twitter_impression=true

So the DUP are now in line with May. And the possibility - in theory - of staying in the customs union and the single market.

Also

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Here's the @skydavidblevins interview with Arlene Foster where she says the "only red line" on Brexit is same treatment of NI as rest UK, after being asked about whole UK in a customs union... some MPs also drawing parallels on Ireland abortion debate...

If the DUPs only red line is indeed, staying the same as the rest of the UK, I think that's probably good news. Its movement away from where they previously seemed to be, which was leaving the customs union.

I think Theresa May might be breathing a sigh of relief at this...

OP posts:
Cailleach1 · 04/06/2018 13:20

The organisation I was employed by threw resources and personnel to avert possible problems from the millennium bug.

Javid gave a big handshake to Marr after his chat on Sunday morn'. As well he might. 'Thanks Andy. You let me waffle on rather than push me on whether there is any truth to these reports. 'Do you recognise?' allowed me to say No and divert to what bs vision we aspire to.'

Anyone see Nimco Ali on Sophie Ridge? Blinkin' heck! Course the reports are dodgy. They were written by 'Remainers'. There ya go. Civil Service riddled with them. They indicate problems. Therefore have to be remainer or 'remoaner' fabrication.

RedToothBrush · 04/06/2018 13:20

Carole Cadwalladr @carolecadwalla
Big news from @ICOnews. Investigation into Cambridge Analytica, Facebook, data, campaigns & the referendum is ‘unprecedented’ in scale. ‘Biggest data protection investigation ever’. ICO commissioner Liz Denham giving further evidence to European Parliament tonight.

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.
Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.
OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 04/06/2018 13:24

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/transport/air-transport/news/95655/theresa-may-considering-ditching-free-vote-heathrow-bid
Theresa May 'considering ditching free vote on Heathrow' in bid to stave off defeat

Boris Johnson could be forced to defy Theresa May over a third runway at Heathrow, following reports that the Prime Minister will whip MPs to back airport expansion.

But The Telegraph reports that Mrs May is now mulling a tough three-line whip on a Commons vote on expansion later this month, amid concern the Government could struggle to get the plans through.

Brave. Wow this is brave.

She wants to do this before the summer recess. Its the vote that Cameron booted and she's already previously kicked into the long grass...

OP posts:
Peregrina · 04/06/2018 13:27

Theresa May 'considering ditching free vote on Heathrow' in bid to stave off defeat

Will Zac Goldsmith resign again and stand as an 'Independent'? I will be fair to him, Heathrow expansion is something he has opposed for a long time, and for those under the flight path, it must be pretty miserable.

RedToothBrush · 04/06/2018 13:28

Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 1 hour ago
Ladbrokes: Michael Gove is now favourite to be next Tory leader.

3 Line Whip Over Heathrow + Betting Odds on Gove = Genuine Reason for Anxiety Levels to go through the Roof

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.
OP posts:
DGRossetti · 04/06/2018 13:30

I've never quite grasped the rules for whipping. As Boris might find out, what's the point of only voting as you are told ? Surely that's no democracy ?

It's a little like being told as a juror that you must find someone guilty "because it's the law". Which I frequently get into arguments over, because there are certain situations where - fuck what "the law" is - I would not find a person guilty. Conscience over conscription and all that.

(One situation would be if there was any chance of the death penalty - hypothetical I know. There are less hypothetical ones)

RedToothBrush · 04/06/2018 13:33

Lisa Nandy @lisanandy
You literally could not make this up. Chris Grayling is having to rearrange or cancel meetings with MPs about Northern today because he underestimated demand and cannot make the timetable work

Election Data @election_data
The meetings about the cancellations......have been cancelled. Her Majesty's Government would like to apologise for any inconvenience caused

OP posts: