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Brexit

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 03/06/2018 16:36

The last thread started about how the Withdrawal Bill was in tatters with The Rebel Forces feeling confident of staying in the Customs Union and there seemed to be a growing backlash towards the hostile environment and the need to reduce immigration.

This thread starts with the revelation this week that Farage has claimed that he never said the UK would be better off financially under Brexit, just that we would be self-governing and the Brexmeggadon Planning Revelation.

The Sunday Times has published a story about No Deal Brexit as senior civil servants have drawn up scenarios for David Davis. If you remember the minister responsible for No Deal is actually Steve Baker. That’s ERG founder Steve Baker. And if you remember he is facing queries from Brexiteers about whether he is truly committed to Brexit on the basis of his recent actions and comments.

There were reported that his plans for No Deal were stalling and proving impossible.

And today we have the Brexmeggadon ‘Project Fear’ article with three levels of jeopardy: Mild, Severe and ‘Oh my fucking God’.

Suddenly all our talk of stockpiling on Westministenders are starting to look rather prudent and enlightened. Ian Dunt’s book is looking like a Brexit Manual. David Allen Green is just standing there going ‘Well’. And George Osbourne is maniacally laughing his head off somewhere.

In the Level 2 Disaster Planning we are looking at Dover collapsing on Day One, food would run out within days and hospitals would run out of medicine within weeks. Petrol would run out within week two too.

As I’ve point out before in the worst case, the government has insufficient police and army to manage a worse case scenario.
Of course this is so explosive, its only been shared with a handful of ministers and are ‘locked in a safe’ and The Sunday Times don’t tell you what is in the ‘Bremeggadon’ scenario.

Or you could just read social media for the ‘scaremongering’.

We now have political attempts to FOI or force the publication of these reports to look forward too. The irony being that in this case the government will have a legitimate case that it would be against national security to release them. Of course they can’t actually admit that either!

Naturally Cabinet ministers and DeXeu has dismissed the article as not true. What else could they do?

Only for a ‘government source’ to claim that the denial was ‘untrue’ to Sam Coates of The Times.

Matthew Holehouse pointed out that the government can’t say for certain what impact no deal will have on medicine supply chains, because review on this isn’t due to finish its “initial” work until “late spring 2018”. Of course we are now in Summer 2018 and its still not been completed. Which obviously bodes well.

And there is talk of Chilcot style inquiries into Brexit sometime in the future. Westministenders is once again way ahead on that score…

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Meanwhile over in the Labour corner, growing pressure has been mounting on Corbyn. This week has seen the launch of a Corbyn supporting left wing pressure group, comprised of grassroots and trade unions to stop him supporting the harakiri of Tory Brexiteers.

We wait with tepid enthusiasm and sceptical levels of optimism for Corbyn’s climb down. St Jeremy knows what he wants...

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What does all this talk all mean? I think its difficult to read as much different to the media catching up with what the sane – who have a modicum of understanding of what trade deals, the custom union and the single market actually are - have been saying for sometime. Reality can’t be spun forever. At some point, you have to start preparing the public for the coming shit storm or the inevitable u-turn. This seems likely to be the move to kill off No Deal once and for all.

In terms of a ‘possible civil war’ under Brexmeggadon, its noticeable key Brexiteers are backing away from the cake. That doesn’t smack of civil unrest, that smacks of cowardice and a lack of Brexiteer leadership as no one is truly prepared to nail themselves to the mast as the ship starts to sink.

I also don’t think people will blame other people in the event of no food and no medicine and no medicine. I think people will be fairly unified in blaming those in charge who caused ‘No Deal’.
Oh and The American Trade Wars have began.

Ronald Regan ‘We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like Brexit doesn't it?

Turnips anyone?
Planting season is late June to early July.

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Thread gallery
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lonelyplanetmum · 05/06/2018 09:19

There are 65.65 million people in the U.K.

The prime candidate for the most esteemed job is Michael Gove as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

I think the position should not be filled internally.There should be external recruitment seeking alternative candidates.

I'll start the job description..

Good Customer Service Skills, Ability to help with troubleshooting so customers ( electorate) feel satisfied with the experience..
Ability to prioritise.
Confident at participation in team meetings.
Strong communication skills with the ability to relate to people at all levels.
Ability to multi-task.
A willingness and capability to serve client needs and handle client relations at the highest level.
Enjoy working in a busy working environment.
Flexibility to work outside normal office hours may be required from time-to-time.

IrenetheQuaint · 05/06/2018 09:21

I'm surprised they've decided to hold the Heathrow vote now - seems like a massive hostage to fortune (and potentially unnecessary if flights numbers crash post-Brexit, though I suppose they can't admit the possibility of that).

ChardonnaysPrettySister · 05/06/2018 09:32

According to the pro Heathrow lobby the third runway will make Brexit a success.

Make of that what you will.

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 05/06/2018 09:36

Boris did say he would join the protestors laying/standing in front of bulldozers. I guess that will be another promise that was just a possibility

lonelyplanetmum · 05/06/2018 09:38

I just was pondering why Heathrow May be a priority now.

Perhaps it's all about replacing EU sea and road imports with air imports? If we increase any of our arrangements with the US , maybe also an “open skies” treaty between them and us then would Heathrow need to expand accommodate a bigger influx of US airlines? Is that a possibility?

So it's become more urgent rather than less.

ChardonnaysPrettySister · 05/06/2018 09:40

It won’t be ready for years, so it’s not about air freight now.

It won’t relieve Dover when the meltdown there begins.

The Conservative s will lose quite a few MPs there as well.

RedToothBrush · 05/06/2018 09:44

Jim Pickard @PickardJE
am told the foreign secretary will be abroad on the day of the Heathrow vote

officially there’s “no comment” given we don’t officially know the date of the vote yet

'Parliamentary democracy'

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lonelyplanetmum · 05/06/2018 09:45

It's just there's little time for any legislative agenda and Heathrow has been rumbling on for years. Why now? It feels like there's some sinister becoming the 51 st state of the US reason behind addressing Heathrow now.

Although that must be paranoia as there's no indication at all that Trump wants that.

DGRossetti · 05/06/2018 09:58

Although that must be paranoia as there's no indication at all that Trump wants that.

One thing you can't accuse Trump of, is being staid.

This caught my eye ...

ushealthmagz.com/2018/05/12/trump-paves-way-for-united-states-marijuana-legalization/

...
Trump has paved the way for U.S. marijuana legalization, a move that sent many of the top marijuana stocksskyrocketing and a number of Democrats applauding. President Trump will essentially withdraw federal objections to state marijuana legalization ambitions.
...

It's hard not to feel the UKs still in the starting blocks in so many ways.

HesterThrale · 05/06/2018 09:59

Yes I'm marching on 23rd. With some family members. Most friends are blissfully unaware of all this, which is difficult when you personally have an apocalypse going on inside your head...

MessyMeTarr · 05/06/2018 10:05

Hester, this is how I feel. Most of my family and friends are completely unaware of any difficulties ahead. How do you address this with them without sounding like a paranoid conspiracy theorist? I can see them looking at me like I've gone mad.

There's a genuine risk of disaster with this incompetent shower of bastards in charge, I don't see how people can't see that. I'm constantly thinking about how I can protect my family but also trying to remain rational!

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/06/2018 10:10

There are lots of inconsistencies in JDD's posts, especially if you know anything about the civil service. I take them all with a massive pinch of salt, though it's possible he has some form of access at DExEU (but I'd guess as a contractor, not a civil servant).

That comforts me. I'm not going to ignore what he is saying (and yes I will be marching on the 23rd) but still, it is something to cling to.

DGRossetti · 05/06/2018 11:31

.

Westministenders: Brexmeggadon Redux.
DarlingNikita · 05/06/2018 12:02

Marking place. Thanks Red.

RedToothBrush · 05/06/2018 14:55

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
^Could the gvt simply avoid a fight on customs next Tuesday?

Lots of people stressing that the Lord Kerr amendments isn’t binding - just commits gvt to produce report - so could the gvt just accept it (or something v similar) and defer the fight?^

The fight in he customs union in Parliament would then happen when the trade and customs bills come back. Whenever that is.

The logic must be: if the cabinet and government can’t agree a preferred customs plan before June EU Council why risk defeat in parliament on something not even binding

Kick the pebble politics.

From earlier today:
Beth Rigby @ bethrigby
May privately telling MPs she can’t override Stormont over #abortion (1. need to get an assembly up & running 2. small matter of the EU withdrawal bill votes). But on my count the no of Tory MPs agitating on this outnumbers the 10 DUP MPs she relies on for votes. Who’ll win out?

Then:
NEW: Am told that Karen Bradley's speech in @stellacreasy's #abortionlaws debate will 1] confirm PM support on the issue 2] confirm its a free vote issue 3] UK parliament is entitled to act. Does that pave a way for an amendment to the domestic violence bill?

Wow if true.

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DGRossetti · 05/06/2018 15:19

...and Boris has agreed to Heathrow too.

Clearly interesting times ...

BigChocFrenzy · 05/06/2018 16:55

Irene JDD says he is a former businessman who is on a special contract for Brexit
so certainly not a career / standard civil servant

He and North seem to know each other quite well and talk privately, so I think his job at least is genuine

He reports on work he says he has actually done for ministers

  • obviously he could fool North there
and his predictions of the future may be no better than anyone else's, of course - however, most of his predictions seem to tie in with North's
RedToothBrush · 05/06/2018 17:01

Kevin Schofield @ polhomeeditor
No10 reveals that nny minister opposed to the third runway at Heathrow (let's call them 'Boris' for the sake of argument) will be allowed to speak out against it, but only to their local paper. And they'll still be expected to vote for it in the Commons.

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RedToothBrush · 05/06/2018 17:04

Paul Waugh @ Paul Waugh
NEW: Boris may not get away so easily with going abroad for the #Heathrow vote. Labour is so furious about the EU bill being railroaded thru Parliament that it is refusing to rule out blocking a 'pair' for Johnson.

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BigChocFrenzy · 05/06/2018 17:07

YouGov, Fieldwork 28-29 May

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulusuploads/document/v0m1echerf/TimesResultss180529VIITrackers.pdf

"In hindsight, was Britain right or wrong to vote to leave the EU"

Support still v v age-dependant, not much support from the middle-aged and hardly any from the you g:

18-24 yrs 13%
25-49 yrs 31%
50-64 yrs 45%
65+ yrs 63%

ChardonnaysPrettySister · 05/06/2018 17:08

How big is Boris’ majority in Hillingdon?

Would it be possible for him to lose at the next election?

Don’t underestimate how deep the the feelings for Heathrow expansion are we n the community.

RedToothBrush · 05/06/2018 17:26

Kevin Schofield @ polhomeeditor
Downing Street also confirms that Conservative MPs will be whipped to support a third runway at Heathrow, despite previously saying it would be a free vote.

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/social-affairs/welfare/news/95716/tory-mps-wont-be-ordered-oppose-northern-ireland-abortion
Tory MPs won't be ordered to oppose Northern Ireland abortion shake-up, minister confirms

Speaking in an emergency debate on the issue secured by Labour backbencher Stella Creasy, Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley confirmed that the Government - which relies on the support of Northern Ireland's traditionalist Democratic Unionist Party to get is programme through the Commons - would give MPs a free vote on any future attempt to overhaul abortion laws.

"This is a matter of conscience," she said. "A free vote on this issue in this House would be afforded if the matter of abortion comes before the House again, and the same applies in Northern Ireland."

But the minister, who said she was "personally" in favour of reform, also appeared to rule out any specific government proposal, batting away calls from Ms Creasy to scrap the 1861 Offences Against the Persons Act, which makes it illegal for pregnant women in Northern Ireland to get an abortion in most circumstances.

Ms Bradley said: "The Government, like its predecessors, believes that the best forum to debate and resolve these and many other matters is in the locally-elected Northern Ireland assembly.

Stormont was in breech of an EHCR ruling that said NI was in breech of human rights on the issue of abortion.

But since all the membership of all the major parties in NI are dominated by religious zealots, they sat on their hands and pretty much all refused to do anything, despite public opinion being in favour of reform.

And now it appears we have a national government saying 'oh well we think reform needs to be done, but we aren't going to do anything about it because it should be down to the northern Ireland assembly to represent their own people'.

Neglecting the minor point that a) they weren't b) they didn't want to and c) stormont was in breech of a ECHR ruling on human rights d) stormont is currently banjaxed so in theory the UK government itself is responsible for the breech of the ECHR ruling e) the DUP has no interest in restoring Stormont.

The DUP oxymoronic paradox
Direct Rule: essential for Brexit
Public opinion: essential for Brexit but only if you are in England or Wales
Direct Rule: must not be used at all for abortion
Public opinion: worthless if it's about abortion
NI must exactly the same as England: must be forces let for Brexit
NI must exactly the same as England: but not for abortion. God help us, we are 'different' here.

Seriously if I were in NI, this alone would be enough for me to want to unite Ireland.

Parliamentary sovereignty and will of the people is made up horseshit by the DUP and Conservative party.

They do not believe in it.

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RedToothBrush · 05/06/2018 17:29

Boris IS potentially vulnerable at the next election imho. One of the few.

He needs to locally be seen to be against Heathrow.

Zac Goldsmith will also be fucking thrilled. Will be interesting to see which way he votes.

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KennDodd · 05/06/2018 17:43

Boris IS potentially vulnerable at the next election imho. One of the few

I don't think Boris will stand in the next GE.

RedToothBrush · 05/06/2018 17:46

There's a prediction.

I do agree. The man is power crazed. He couldn't walk away. He hasn't walked away from the Cabinet yet has he?

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