Not the Brexit Arms

[bearbehind]

Since BrexitArmsLandlady says she isn't starting anymore threads here's a place to discuss Brexit developments for those that still want to.

It never ceases to amaze me what a shambles this is.

The cabinet still can't even agree what we want, let alone what we're going to get.

@ Doubletrouble.
In 2016 Britain was 9th for exports, about a third as much as Germany.
Exports have been in a steady decline from 13 percent in 1948 to 3 percent in 2016. Unfortunately detailed numbers in the WTO paper are a bit tricky as most of the time the UK is lumped in with the other 27 EU countries.

{and around and around we go, the same old tired arguments again and again}
Absolutely' however at each revolution the circle gets smaller as companies make the arrangements to leave.
The WTO has strict laws too by the way, so there is a risk that the UK will fail to meet their rules, nothing is guaranteed.
Therein lies perhaps the biggest problem, business confidence. Companies are there to make money otherwise they wouldn't exist.
As soon as profits are threatened they move and often the workforce is expendable or at least easily replaceable. The highly specialised companies such as Airbus cannot have delays in their arrival of parts so will move to ensure they are not disrupted.
Calling me a tin hatted idiot is not a problem for me, my computer has an 'off' switch and it all goes away. The financial losses coming the way of the UK cannot be switched off, it is happening now.

I can't help feeling Leavers are about to snatch defeat from the jaws victory

I think it’s the other way around frumpety - it was all going so well for you until the Tory ‘rebels’ caved in ( like we knew they would )

Brexit means Brexit

Brexit means remaining in the bits you need to remain in , so not actually Brexit

Perhaps a new name would be in order ? suggestions on a postcard, makes a pleasant change from junk mail

Not for me , for Brexit

Calm down dears! It will all be allright.

Course it will because Brexit isn't actually going to happen

Call it predictions or analysis, its all just speculation because between now and then the world will change, politics and politicians can change anything and everything.

So that's why Project Fear was a choice and we wont and didn't just sit on our hands letting the worst happen. We will actively change things to make the UK a better place. That's the freedom being independent will bring us.

Remoaners build obstacles, Brexiteers knock them down.

Remoaners build obstacles, Brexiteers knock them down

Love it.

Who is this marvellous and mythical 'we' you speak of fangirl ? Because the only power you and I will have, regardless of the outcome, is exactly what we currently have. You and I will vote for those who we believe ( speculate ?) best fit our ideals, that doesn't mean they will get into power or remain in power, a lot of other people have to feel the same way. And I hate to be the one to break it to you , but that is where our power ends, unless of course you are fancying a change in career

Remoaners build obstacles, Brexiteers knock them down

thought it up around wine o'clock.

Of course you can have Brexit as you so want it, whatever 'it' might be.
Unfortunately it WILL be ridiculously expensive and will probably take at least 10 years or more for the UK to 'get over it', as in get back to anything like the 'prosperity' we have now. Don't forget the 2008 financial crash, we are not back up to the level of prosperity from just before that.
This is with the BofE putting huge amounts of money into the economy.
The immediate monetary aspects of Brexit are only a sideshow to the fact that many big companies will move out of the UK. The UK will not be attractive to inward investment as companies outside the UK will look for 'dead certs' for places to invest, confidence in the UK will fall.

Leavers must have had a magic ballot paper - when the leave box was ticked a whole page of extra options appeared. Do you want more money for the NHS? Control immigration (preferably chuck out the Muslims?). I voted remain so the invisible questions stayed invisible.

We haven't left yet, but people were going to be queuing up to give us trade deals which was going to be easy. I recall Fox talking about 16th September 2016. The date passed without comment, unless I missed it.

Project Fear was a Leaver Term, so they now think it was a choice, do they? Cameron had a choice - he could have stayed on, and invoked A50 and our time would be up now.

As for the £ being overvalued - most people I know would be happier getting 1.40€ to the £ rather than 1.10. Must remember that next time I hear a Leaver whinging about the costs of everything going up - overvalue, learn to economise!

didn't just sit on our hands letting the worst happen.

So we will assume that this refers to the Government rather than the man and woman in the street. Good to see that the Government have got something cast iron in place to satisfy the Good Friday Agreement. Similarly, the situation in Gibraltar, (where a few people 96% chose to Remain, but it clearly wasn't enough). And of course, new customs sheds are being built right now in Dover and the other major ports and new customs staff are being trained up. A new director who knew about Aviation was appointed nearly two years ago, and has been hard at work every since discussing the position of the airlines. I am not sure what the Govt is doing advertising for a Director who doesn't need to know about aviation - perhaps he will be put in charge of the railways.

Yeah right, as they say.

walking analysis of legal structures and obligations is not prediction. Or are you advocating that the UK Govt should choose to break international law/treaties/agreements?

'Between now and then [when?] the world will change'. It might. Are you predicting that, and predicting that 'we [not sure who that might be, maybe you are TM?] will actively change things to make the UK a better place'. Is this Project WISHFUL THINKING?

Of course you can have Brexit as you so want it, whatever 'it' might be.
Almost, not quite. We will MAKE it whatever we want it.

Do you want more money for the NHS?
Yes, check - £20 Billion more coming.

And of course, new customs sheds are being built right now in Dover
Why would we need new customs sheds in Dover? We are arranging a deal with the EU that wont need them.

Or are you advocating that the UK Govt should choose to break international law/treaties/agreements?

Well that is very naive. Who enforces theses laws? It not like politics makes them malleable!

{walking. analysis of legal structures and obligations is not prediction}
It is prediction in that you KNOW what will happen if you decide to break the rules.
Mr Cameron's idea of a vote to possibly leave the EU was valid. Had the government read through ALL the implications of doing so and presented them in an even handed way and said 'We can leave but X,Y,Z WILL happen and it will cost us ABC million to do it' THEN the vote would have been meaningful. Instead it was a rabble shouting anything they could think of (on both sides).

What deals have we arranged so far? We have had two years now with just under 9 months to go. The Dutch I know are beefing up their customs facilities. I wonder why if a deal is on the cards!

You can only make Brexit be whatever you want once you have taken the legally binding 'red lines' of the EU into account. If you leave a club, you can't decide how the decorations will look INSIDE.
If you have £20 Billion under your sofa I think Mrs may might find it handy.
Brexit meant totally out (I thought leavers had decided) so you will need new customs sheds, it's in the rules.
Enforcing the laws? not exactly sure but massive fines for any 'wrongdoing' would be a start. Inability to trade with any EU member, all manner of things. Don't forget it's a long way to transport EVERYTHING the UK might need from USA/Russia/wherever.

Who enforces international law - it depends how strong a country is as to whether it can ignore the Law. During the Suez crisis of 1956 France and the UK found that they were no longer strong powers. Hitler was eventually checked once he invaded Poland.

Mr Junker has said the EU must prepare for the UK leaving and has allocated a few Euros to the process. The word Trillion appears in the press release.

Walking if we want to trade internationally we have to abide by the WTO rules, assuming we are permitted to rejoin as an individual state rather than as a member of the trading area known as the EU. The WTO has an arbitration court system that the members agree to abide by.

Good Friday/Belfast Agreement is an International Treaty recognised by the United Nations. No Deal with the EU automatically results in our breach of that Agreement. Is that really your view of how 'the UK will be a better place'?

What agreement is it that you think the UK has/will have at 11.01 pm (UK time) on 29 March 2019?