Not the Brexit Arms

[bearbehind]

Since BrexitArmsLandlady says she isn't starting anymore threads here's a place to discuss Brexit developments for those that still want to.

It never ceases to amaze me what a shambles this is.

The cabinet still can't even agree what we want, let alone what we're going to get.

It wasn't going to hit us harder. Funny how the story has changed.

Let's hear what this talking tough consists of.

We have opted to become a third country - why should they pander to our whims?

I'm looking forward to seeing what the tough talking will offer. What can we offer the rest of the EU to make them want to give us concessions?

The EU will take an economic hit, some countries esp. Ireland are looking at bypassing UK to trade with mainland Europe. The thing is there are 27 countries unified together to take the hit.

The UK is going to left with its pants down possibly shouting "We lost but so did you...a little!"

You can see that Spain could be worried about its tourist trade. But, I could see them quite happily saying Adios to British lager louts, and pitching their accommodation at the East Europeans, especially the Poles and Baltic states.

I could also see them getting a nice little earner from Visas - compare this with Turkey where you have to purchase a visa before they let you in, paid for in either Euros, dollars or sterling.

We've discussed Airbus - wings could be made in China. New cars - again discussed elsewhere but probably production shifts when the next model is due out and retooling is required.

I could also see them getting a nice little earner from Visas

With the additional benefit of being able to exclude anyone with a criminal record. Or indeed, anyone they don't like.

Dixons CPW 24% down on profits this year.

Can't see that Dixon's has anything to do with Brexit Rossetti, but a lot to do with the change in buying habits with more on line shopping.

Can't see that Dixon's has anything to do with Brexit Rossetti, but a lot to do with the change in buying habits with more on line shopping.

Wrong thread.

Brexit is a really expensive way to become poorer as a nation.

Re Spanish tourism - I recall some reasonably recent news items explaining that Spanish holiday destinations were becoming less inclined to sell to British tourists due to the massive increase in food poisoning litigation. We are becoming an embarrassment (and a liability).

I see remoaners are still out in force ,
hating every step closer to Brexit.

The EU don't NEED the UK at all. There are about 150 other counties they can trade with (as they are doing).
Apart from the EU being a bit pissed off at the messing around that the UK is doing they can perfectly well say goodbye and slam the door.
With the ports shut from the morning of Brexit the UK will be down to emergency food aid. Until new 'deals' are done there will be practically no trade out of the UK for months until customs arrangements are made.

The collective unravelling on the other thread is quite funny.

54321 - what the f... are you on about. Trade goes on whither or not you have a trade deal. We are one of the biggest trading nations in the world so I do think they might notice any lack of trade with us if that was ever to happen.

With the ports shut from the morning of Brexit the UK will be down to emergency food aid

That made me laugh lol, 54321 do you wear a tin hat?

No, I read the newspapers and apply my brain.
Thinking the UK is one of the biggest trading nations is at least 70 years out of date.
Yes trade WILL go on, but it is suddenly going to get a lot more expensive. Early estimates are IIRC around 4 percent more expensive but when you factor in the companies that make things in the UK WILL be leaving and that Customs and Excise calculate an increased cost of £20 Billion due to the need to handle ALL incoming and outgoing goods, the money has to come from somewhere.
Rather than blindly criticising people who do think, ( I don't care that you think I can't) try looking around you.
Remember, Brexit hasn't happened yet.

Remember, Brexit hasn't happened yet
As we know Project Fears promises predictions where for the day after we voted to leave in the referendum (2 years ago). Still waiting for WW3 to start, that recession/depression, or even the punishment budget! I wonder was Project Fear just a project to spread fear and had no more reality behind it than the flying spaghetti monster.

Walking do you include the analysis by the Norths - long time supporters of the UK leaving the EU - as Project Fear?

Cameron was going to stay on as PM and invoke A50 immediately. Since he ran away as fast as his legs could carry him and didn't carry out his promise, we don't know whether 'Project Fear' would have happened or not. Similarly, Osborne wasn't able to produce his punishment budget because May gave him the push.

The £ did immediately lose value, and has not yet regained it. Since then there has been a 96% reduction in EU health care staff coming to the UK. This doesn't include my EU dentist who was always planning to retire to his home country but after the Referendum, brought forward his plan by about 5 years. His daughter, in medical research, also decamped elsewhere. So no, nothing's happened, it's all hunky dory.

BTW where are those trade deals which we were promised? Who exactly is queuing up to give us good deals? Johnson and May went running off to India with great fanfare, as I recall, but came back empty handed because India wanted more visas for its citizens.

JWIM - do you think because you support the UK you are immune to confirmation bias when it comes to making predictions about a post Brexit Britain years in the future?

we don't know whether 'Project Fear' would have happened or not
So your saying Project Fear was a choice and not a fait du complet? I dont remember anyone saying that during the debate?

The £ did immediately lose value The pound was overvalued and would have fallen anyway and its not necessarily a bad thing. Markets had expected a vote to stay, so it was the surprise of the result that triggered the drop rather than anything else.

there has been a 96% reduction in EU health care staff coming to the UK We did vote to reduce immigration.

BTW where are those trade deals which we were promised?
We haven't left the EU yet, remember!

and around and around we go, the same old tired arguments again and again.

I think you will find that the Norths' analysis is not of the 'predictive' nature that you dismiss, but more how the world of international trade operates - the practicalities of WTO rules, most favoured nation clauses in Free Trade Agreements, access to EU Free Trade Agreements when no longer an EU Member state, what being a '3rd Country' means in international law, how HM Customs works in the UK, what HM Customs will need to do once the UK is no longer in the Customs Union and what UK traders (import and export) will have to do once the UK is no longer in the Customs Union - all those 'will have to dos', they all cost and someone will have to foot that bill.

We didn't all vote to reduce immigration - even some Leave voters have said they did not vote to reduce immigration. some voted or I voted are the qualifying phrases that you can be sure of being accurate.