Not the Brexit Arms

[bearbehind]

Since BrexitArmsLandlady says she isn't starting anymore threads here's a place to discuss Brexit developments for those that still want to.

It never ceases to amaze me what a shambles this is.

The cabinet still can't even agree what we want, let alone what we're going to get.

Just to be clear (channelling Mrs May) the UK can make any number of choices but there will be consequences and we cannot unilaterally decide what those consequences will be on behalf of other countries/trading blocs. We do not rule the world and 'don't they know who we are' might work for a proportion of the UK population but has no influence beyond our borders.

We might have been able to make decisions unilaterally when we had an Empire on which the sun never set. My late DF always quoted a Commonwealth friend telling him in 1942 that our Empire was finished -he'd been able to read the way the world was moving. Suez then brought that home to Britain and France.

Actually I think @walking has a point.
I know nothing about this and must be wrong. Unfortunately a few other people see it something like the way I do, such as a LOT of international lawyers, Mr Junker and the EU cabinet, and a significant number of the population of the 27 other countries.

If you want to be really depressed and scared, look on the BBC website about Malawi and the fighting in the Sahara.
Although being in or out of the EU may seem insignificant to you, it does bind us to friends who are helping to stop the threat from ISIS and similar groups.
Leaving the EU automatically stops all direct, and currently automatic communication about possible terrorist threats, until new agreements are drawn up. Perhaps you didn't realise you were opting out of these aspects too? While the 'Remain' might have been one short word, the implications of leaving should have taken pages to write.

It is prediction in that you KNOW what will happen if you decide to break the rules
You are simply wrong, Trump (I am not a supporter of his) has just broken WTO rules and imposed illegal tariffs. Didn't see any police coming along to stop him!

What deals have we arranged so far? Again, we haven't left the EU yet. Yawn!

You can only make Brexit be whatever you want once you have taken the legally binding 'red lines' of the EU into account We are leaving the EU we dont have to follow their rules after Brexit.

Good Friday/Belfast Agreement is an International Treaty recognised by the United Nations. No Deal with the EU automatically results in our breach of that Agreement.
That would also mean the EU has breached the agreement.

we cannot unilaterally decide what those consequences will be
Of course their will be consequences, we knew that when we voted for it. That does not mean we have to lie down and accept them. We will mitigate them, react to them, and circumvent them. We are not passive players in this endeavour we are going to be a free an independent country.

54321 It would be extremely unlikely that the EU would want to disconnect itself from us with regard to security. Our security intelligence and the likes of GCHQ make us world leaders in the field.
We are not opting out of this, we are negotiating different arrangements in order that the EU can continue to take advantage of out expertise.

Walking there is a case at the WTO challenging the US tariffs on Steel and Aluminium.

So, we leave the EU at 11.01 pm 29 March 2019 and we have no agreements to trade - with the EU, as a WTO independent trading state. How will that work for our importers and exporters? When will they make their preparations? When will our Govt make the adjustments necessary to HM Customs?

The breach of the GFA/BA International Treaty will be by the UK in taking the action of leaving the EU the breach is not by the EU. Thereafter the UK will carry that reputation - failing to maintain our obligations under an international treaty - whilst presumably seeking international free trade agreements with other countries. Not a strong negotiating position.

Those consequences we will mitigate etc - Project WISHFUL THINKING.

there is a case at the WTO challenging the US tariffs on Steel and Aluminium

& I am happy to bet £1000 that it will make F all difference. Seriously?

Seriously.
Now, about how the UK is going to trade after 29 March 2019 - more Project WISHFUL THINKING. Any comment on the practical concerns published by the Freight Transport Association - you know, the people who actually travel through our ports daily and deal with HM Customs hourly?

Airbus believes that the impacts on our UK operations could be significant. We have sought to highlight our concerns over the past 12 months, without success. Far from Project Fear, this is a dawning reality for Airbus. Put simply, a No Deal scenario directly threatens Airbus’ future in the UK.

Now what was that about Project Fear again?

Project WISHFUL THINKING - 'we will mitigate them (consequences), react to them, circumvent them'.
Perhaps we will keep 'Airbus' renamed wing manufacture in the UK (not sure the patents/design/contract will allow - pesky laws heh!) and start building the rest of a 300+ seat plane as well in the UK. Ah, then there's the international recognition that every element of the UK's aviation industry from wing to maintenance to pilots needs a new UK based safety etc authority, as our leaving the EU means we leave EASA and Open Skies. So Project WISHFUL THINKING means we might have a plane but nowhere outside the UK to fly.

We are leaving the EU we dont have to follow their rules after Brexit.

If you want to trade with them, you do. Furthermore, they will need to be satisfied that we are doing so, just taking our word for it won't necessarily be sufficient.

Regarding security. The EU does not depend on GCHQ. The equivalent work that is done in Europe appears to be rather less trumpeted than GCHQ. The British intelligence/security forces have allegedly acquired and 'distributed' information from the EU and shared it with the USA, making the UK a security risk to the EU. The fact that some of the information was unverified or out of date has meant that some suspects have 'escaped' that should have been stopped and that some have been stopped that were totally innocent.
While communication from EU with UK is of course vital, as a bloc the EU is not required to share information with third parties (the UK).
The Stazi, years ago monitored all the citizens in that country. About one in ten were 'informers', so in every family at least one would be a state informer. Nowadays many people carry mobile phones. the data of where every mobile phone is to within about 10 metres or less is available to 'security' services all the time they are switched on.
That is surveillance on a massive scale and is worldwide. The information is not secure. Terrorists know that if they want to communicate between themselves that they need to buy a cheap phone, do whatever communicating is necessary then dump it as quickly as possible before the pattern of communication is picked up and tagged as suspicious. It is simply a matter of time.
Bank encryption is not infallible but with the computing power available to the average person it would take unraveling it so long that the data is then out of date and irrelevant.
A quick flick through the 161 pages of the WTO report kindly referenced by DGR yesterday shows that practically every country in the world has trade agreements, RULES, with somebody. The UK will have to abide by the rules of whichever body it signs up to.
Of course new deals can be struck but the issue will be the time taken to do it and the terms. The UK is not a major player any more and developing countries will see 'locally' sourced goods as economically and environmentally more viable. China has grown immeasurably. The common perception is they have a peasant workforce who will work for next to nothing. While this may have been true 30 or 40 years ago, they now have money and want the fancy goods that the West has had. An oversimplification perhaps but the basis is broadly correct.

So 54321 Where will we all be if the EU be if they decide not to share info with us? And then we don't with them! You mention one incident that we shared info with the US. The US are an ally we share info with them. So! The idea that the EU don't want to share anything with us now is just daft. There are loads of instances of us sharing info with them and stopping potential attacks on mainland Europe. Why are you going on about the Stazi and informers? what has that got to do with just the UK ?
I think the point about the 'rules' is a spurious one. Of course any company exporting items to another country will have to abide by the rules for the items they export. But far from everything we produce is exported so any internally sold items will not have to abide be these rules.
I think the point about proximity to markets etc is also not altogether relevant as much of our exports are in services so distance is not so much of a problem. The Indian High commissioner the other day stated they were especially interested in a deal so that they could be involved in our investment industry.

I bet the Indian High Commissioner did double. There's just the minor matter of the Visas they want in return for engaging in more trade goods and services with the UK. Mrs May has at least twice, as publicly reported, said no to the Indian Visa negotiation tactic.

In fact, the visa regulations have been relaxed in the last few days, but India was not on the list of countries involved.

There is a strange assumption that the US is a friend. While it may not be an enemy all the deals and information with the UK is stacked heavily in the US favour. Mr Trump says America FIRST.
The EU has many friends and not wishing to share info with the UK is not much of a problem. The Visas UK citizens will require will weed out a few instances of terrorism. The EU is not obliged to give ANY security details to a 'third country' and the fact that the UK has been a bit 'leaky' makes the EU wary of what is disclosed. The EU can and will have security arrangements with the US and the details they transfer can now be independent of Britain.
Stazi and informers. Knowledge is power. Knowing what half the world is doing and where they are is incredible power and you can be sure that the 'security forces' of many countries are finding ways of getting and using ways to extract the information from trillions of fragments of 'data'. While you may instagram a picture of your delicious meal to auntie Flo, the data that can be extracted from this is potentially useful. The fact it identifies both you and auntie flow to which rooms you are standing in your houses is just the start.

An anecdote from an East German acquaintance who taught in a University department of 20 staff. They knew that 3 were Stasi informers. When the Wall came down and the truth started to come out, they found that 11 people had been informers.

An anecdote from an East German acquaintance who taught in a University department of 20 staff. They knew that 3 were Stasi informers. When the Wall came down and the truth started to come out, they found that 11 people had been informers.

The US TV show "Law and Order" used to copy storylines from real life. One story hinged on a policeman being sent undercover in a University in the late 1960s to spy on anti-Vietnam protestors. He was tasked with infiltrating a group, and flushing out the radicals by suggesting increasingly illegal and violent protests. Eventually all but 4 members dropped out (you can see where this is going). It was only when he was receiving a commendation that he realised the other 3 were also ... undercover cops.

The Indian High commissioner the other day stated they were especially interested in a deal so that they could be involved in our investment industry.

So we're happy for foreigners to buy up the UK ? Silly question really. Of course we are. We just don't want them coming here to use it.

Think it had more to do with our banks and financial institutions investing in India Rossetti.

China is funding the building of infrastructure all around the South China sea. There will be strings attached.
I believe various British cities are accepting extensive Chinese investment to build/rebuild.

Think it had more to do with our banks and financial institutions investing in India Rossetti.

With whose money ?

Investment banking can probably be done anywhere with a decent internet connection and a couple of laptops.
That rules out a lot of places outside London (in the UK) but does include the rest of the world.