Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

[RedToothBrush]

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

Who was the UK in 1066? And how much consultation with the sitting tenants did the Norman new order carry out on their refit of wherever they went?

Anyone know what time Adonis is due to speak in the Lords? I'm off work with a poorly child so would like to listen in for his 6 minutes.

Who was the UK in 1066? And how much consultation with the sitting tenants did the Norman new order carry out on their refit of wherever they went?

More to the point is a lot of England still belongs to those families.

I'd bet JRM can trace his land back to a gift from William the Bastard.

Thanks Red. Placemat king.

I think it's already taken place the numberfaker but could be mistaken,

There's the text of his speech here:

www.andrewadonis.org/

Most interesting that IDS is rubbishing an economic assessment not just from his own Tory govt, but from a dept head by a Brexiter.

If even an ex-leader and prominent Tory backbencher doesn't believe his govt on the economy, why should anyone else in future ?

Thanks for the Adonis link...
" The Prime Minister promises a ‘deep and special partnership’ with the European Union when, actually, we are leaving the union & undermining our deep and special partnership.

We are told that ‘frictionless trade’ will arise, amazingly, from the setting up of thousands of trade barriers where they don’t currently exist.

And on the future of Ireland, where Parliament ought to tread with especial care given the tragedies of recent decades, the Government says it intends ‘continued regulatory alignment’ when its stated policy elsewhere is to discontinue alignment and promote regulatory dealignment."

Yes I thought that BigChocFrenzy

If all government forecasts have been wrong it doesn't say much about the government does it.

This is a government of believing and faith remember - who needs facts/forecasts/experts etc? Even if it's from your "own team"

Most interesting that IDS is rubbishing an economic assessment not just from his own Tory govt, but from a dept head by a Brexiter.

IDS isn't the brightest of bunnies ...

David Willetts‏Verified account
@DavidWilletts3
EXCL: DefSec Gavin Williamson has ordered EU flags be removed from MoD’s London HQ and swapped them for Union Jacks instead

Jon Stone
@joncstone
i love the sight of a politician running across open ground with a leadership bid

Bugger. Missed him as I was searching for when he'd be on! Heard Peter Mandelson though and some raving loony from I presume UKIP. Having a break now as little faker needs some lunch.

Jane Merrick
@janemerrick23
Hillary Benn pointing out that David Davis has potentially misled Parliament by telling his select committee no impact assessments in sectors, but in fact they have been carried out in sectors.

Anushka Asthana
@GuardianAnushka
Steve Baker is making argument that Hammond made to select committee about the analyses - saying it should only be made public to MPs at end of negotiations. BUT MPs have argued that its too late by then to consider alternatives.

He also says the analyses don't yet take into account the potential opportunities of Brexit. Although doesn't make sense why officials wouldn't include their assessments of positive impacts.

Steve Baker says this analysis is not "what would be formally called an impact assessment". Presumably he's saying that to avoid Labour being able to use humble address to force publication.

Baker accuses Labour of simply wanting to remain, and then lays into BoE economic forecasts - which he is using to rubbish Treasury forecasts as well

Seb Dance MEP
@SebDance
The astonishing spectacle of @SteveBakerHW on the government frontbench blaming Labour for the conclusions of the government’s own impact assessment. What a shower this government is. Disgraceful and unworthy of this country.

David Lammy
@DavidLammy
Brexit Minister Steve Baker tells Parliament one minute that we shouldn't take the Brexit impact studies seriously and then the next minute says "in all of those scenarios there's economic growth". Which is it @DExEUgov?

There was no UK in 1066.

In unrelated news, government is given a kicking over the snoopers charter

www.theregister.co.uk/2018/01/30/ukgov_mass_data_slurping_ruled_illegal_again/

Well, I say unrelated, but the inability of the government to fix this issue stems from their (a) not having a majority and (b) not having parliamentary time.

Otherwise I'm sure they'd roll out the SOP for all governments caught breaking the law: retrospective legislation, and denial of compensation.

Can anyone explain how the proposed transition arrangements would differ from a Norway option?

I understand that Norway isn't subject to Agricultural and Fishery policies, but in very other areas they basically accept EU laws without having any say. They also pay to have access to the SM.

Am I missing something?

EU flags be removed spooky
The astonishing spectacle of @SteveBakerHW toxic desperation. Spooky too.

Place mat king.

Thanks again RTB

This all made interesting reading waking up in US, so JRM's view of the U.K. Is set in 1066, it is at times like this that I think being a unionist Scot is actually almost impossible at present. I am really unsure how Brexiteers think they can make this work when they can't even understand how many home nations are in the UK.

I mean....really...wtf!?

www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/stephen-hawking-campaign-group-wins-judicial-review-of-nhs-‘privatisation’-plans/ar-BBIs4cU?ocid=spartanntp
Stephen Hawking campaign group wins judicial review of NHS ‘privatisation’ plans

Tom Newton Dunn‏ @tnewtondunn
Brexit blue on blue - DD v Robbins: Steve Baker uses Despatch Box to thoroughly demolish the veracity of impact assessment... compiled by Oli Robbins' Cabinet Office unit.

This is quite something. It's unheard of for one Govt department to shitbag another's work from the Despatch Box. Brexit civil war.

Robbins is civil service but a still. This is what happens when you create two Brexit departments.

Can anyone explain how the proposed transition arrangements would differ from a Norway option?

I think this chart explains its as well as anything.

There is a mechanism by which Norway can challenge EU position, plus since its not in the ECJ and instead EFTA court it does have a level of political independence.

The UK being in the ECJ means we wouldn't have that. Nor would we have the means to go to arbitration.

Just trying to understand...

What could have been the thinking behind having secret economic analysis prepared of three possible Brexit scenarios, only to then state that none of the outlooks were relevant as the UK would end up with a fourth scenario and, without any actual analysis, have already concluded that it would result in a better economic result than ?currently if the UK were to remain in.