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Brexit

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

992 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/01/2018 00:18

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

OP posts:
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Motheroffourdragons · 14/02/2018 15:01

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Icantreachthepretzels · 14/02/2018 15:08

I just read some of the responses to boris's big speech ( including the lib dem spokesperson who called it a 'back of a fag packet speech' Grin ) the lib Dems hated it, Keir Starmer hated it, Sarah Wollaston and Anna Soubry were scathing - so his attempts to bring remainers on side have ended in failure. Another failure for boris. Doesn't he get bored of being utterly crap and unfit for purpose?

DGRossetti · 14/02/2018 15:28

Tory party members may soon get to vote for party leader, allowing members to make their views clear in the same way that new members of the Labour Party did with Corbyn.

How ? Surely only the parliamentary party votes the leader in ?

Desperatelyseekingsun · 14/02/2018 15:31

Well Boris was right I was feeling quite emotional and angry about leaving the EU but now I know blokes can still go on stag trips I feel fine now. In fact I'm sure we all feeling fine now because pretty much that is the only issue this thread has ever discussed.

DGRossetti · 14/02/2018 15:36

Dismissing the content of the speech (I am surprised people here had time to waste on it), the tone and timing are of note. They suggest that somewhere in Brexit-land, the Brexiteers have realised that they simply haven't got the numbers. After all, if they did, we know they'd have fucked Remainers up the arse before you can say "Rees-Mogg". Don't be deceived by the velvet glove ... there is no iron fist. (Speaking of which, I'll be enjoying this documentary about Wellington ...)

My DB in the US recommended Trevor Noahs "Afraid of the Dark" a few days ago. Thoroughly enjoyable, if just to see how a South African talks to Americans about Great Britain. All the misty-eyed age of empire saddoes like Johnson and Rees-Mogg simply wouldn't believe the fact that it's possible the rest of the world isn't such a fan of team GB as they imagine.

Icantreachthepretzels · 14/02/2018 15:36

Oh yes - blokes can still go on stag dos and commit sex crimes in Thailand - so it's all good. What an utter cockwomble and a national embarrassment that man is.
According to the evening standard Juncker has also said Boris is a twat who is talking complete balls. Though they may not have been his actual words.

DGRossetti · 14/02/2018 15:40

blokes can still go on stag trips

I can see the EU being really thrilled at the idea that of the entire complement possible from the UK, the self-selected cream will be a bunch of pissed up lads looking to add to the local culture with their unique take on life through an alcoholic haze.

Or did BoJo forget most Europeans speak English ?

I wish he'd give his speeches in French or Italian. Ironically that would make his Brexit stance a tad more convincing.

Desperatelyseekingsun · 14/02/2018 16:00

DG sadly I have far to much time to waste on mumsnet as following Brexit we have left the UK for a few years and I am waiting for my qualifications to be verfied before I can work again. There is only so much housework I can face although you may be right listening to Boris probably isn't a good use of anyone's time.

prettybird · 14/02/2018 16:22

Dh and I were talking about Zuma and pondering how people become so delusional that they can't recognise the writing on the wall and don't realise that they have lost all power and credibility.

I was hypothesising that because of the way power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely, they do genuinely lose all sense of perceptive and self-awareness.

That conversation came back to mind when I listened to BoJo say "I don't wish to contradict you [in response to someone who quoted him as describing Labour on Brexit as "supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies"] but I think I've always been moderate, loving and caring in my language"

RedToothBrush · 14/02/2018 16:26

RE: Boris

This pretty much sums up the situation.

Stephen Bush @stephenkb
The problem with a "liberal Brexit" is that most liberals don't want Brexit and most Brexiteers aren't liberal

Boris has never progressed past June 22nd 2016. He is still talking about a vision, but by this stage we should be well into details and practical implementation.

For that reason, he is going to have a particular problem going forward.

Faisal Islam has a good take on it.

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Government insiders think the Boris speech, in particular the acceptance in some areas of “voluntary” alignment with EU standards is evidence the FS has been “on a journey”... also on acceptance of standstill transition
As a means of reaching out to Remain voters - response of own MPs (Wollaston/ Soubry) is not great. Some acknowledgement of practical trade-offs on friction with EUropean trade vs free trade with other nations, or goods vs services trade, may have hit the mark better...
If the Foreign Sec wants the top job eventually, surely has to make his peace with former fans in Remainy Metropolitan UK, where Conservatives suffered losses last year, other Cabinet Brexiters showing pragmatism here - eg on continued alignment for car/ pharma industry etc...
To put it another way, how many Leave voters really think and would change their vote on the basis that continued alignment in industries prospering in UK and run on a pan-EU basis (cars, pharma, chemicals aviation, nuclear etc) is some sort of Brexit betrayal?

The Conservatives will increasingly find it difficult to get a majority because of their inability to engage outside their safe turf. That's not to say that Labour can take advantage of it. They have the same problem. We have a stalemate, that isn't improving.

Darren McCaffrey @DMcCaffreySKY
NEW: Irish PM Leo Varadkar suggests there won't be much difference between the current Customs Union and any new Customs Partnership post #Brexit and that @Theresa_May has asked Irish government to help with this.

Here we go with the language twist again. Should like the plan is to move from a 'Customs Union' to a 'Customs Partnership'. The two being the same thing in practice.

Of course, where did Boris mention NI in his Brexit speech. Its the Brexit elephant.

As for trans stuff. I've spent years trying to get to a point where there can be a 'compromise' which respects both women and trans people. The problem is that only one side is willing to do that, and the push back and the lack of respect for why women had their status of sex protected in the first place is being totally disregarded. There is no middle ground for many TRAs. I wish it were different.

In terms of the science, its all very well saying that perhaps there is more to biology than our current understanding. Perhaps there is, but what part of our biology is it that means women are discriminated against and abused for. Its not because of cellular structure or chromosomes or brain make up. Its because of sexuality.

Also any attempt to try and find out more about there being differences is deliberately being stopped, not by women but by TRAs. I would fully support exploration of this, because what little has been done in this field is so poor as to render it all but valueless. I have spent many years looking at how research into issues relating to women's health is flawed and how its a lot poorer than it should be. Trans health issues are much worse than that. There is not a desire to explore the effects of sterilisation, hormones, surgery, councilling etc as medical gatekeeping in any form is viewed as oppressive and should all be stopped. That's chilling to think of the harm that might cause and to whom. Even though I think women's health gatekeeping is oppressive, I also think it a necessary evil and we simply have to do it better.

Ironically with the way things are going, those who are trans and NEED medical support, might also find they are unable to access it or unable to get health care that is in their best interests and could be indeed harmful because its politically led rather than medically led.

I am going to have to tackle my parents in the near future about the direction TRAs has gone. They are blissfully unaware of it. They are not aware of the GRA and the implications for both me and sibling and how Self ID could harm BOTH of us. I know they will be shocked and disturbed by some of the rhetoric.

I wish things were different. From a pragmatic point of view I feel pushed into a corner as needs must. I'm just torn over it.

I suspect there are lots on the FWR boards who have done it to death and faced abuse for many years and the inevitable result is they have come to the conclusion they can't be more accommodating, because they have tried that and look where it got them. Its the whole mentality where they feel that if they give an inch TRAs will take a mile, and that's why the situation is where it is now. Because the respect many initially offered wasn't just thrown back in their faces, it was actively snarled and aggressively condemned as not good enough. Nothing was good enough, except women doing as they were told and being stopped from thinking critically.

Avocation of reason has been crushed to the point, that there is no trust or goodwill left.

I do feel very much stuck in the middle of it. But ultimately I feel I have to look after myself and my mental health and do what is right for women as a whole, rather than be bullied into a situation where I see far too many pitfalls and opportunities for exploitation by the unscrupulous - and to stress, not by people who are trans. Many of them ARE men, rather than someone who has gender dysphoria. This is something that many within the trans community do recognise and are concerned about but they are marginalised and abused themselves for not supporting the TRA orthodoxy.

I think there are many well meaning women, who don't fully appreciate how the situation has developed and how TRAs are extremists within the community but have come to dominate and take it over.

I think the desire to force a debate and expose what has been going on and the extent to which MRA has taken over trans ideology has made it difficult. Women want to be able to voice things and have that debate which you really want but MN has become the only safe space they can voice ANY critical thought at all. Many feel it the last line of defence, to protecting Women's Rights hence they want to protect their message here at least, and get the debate more open and honest in the public at large. They want to take it mainstream.

Certainly I personally want everyone to be aware of the issues properly - but I also think women can not afford to tiptoe around too either, as that fails to get the message about how serious the situation has become. Gender replacing sex condemns us to stereotypes and to discrimination. Only by recognising both and the difference between them can women shape their own futures.

Anyway:

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Stormont talks break down
“No current prospect of these discussions leading to an Executive”

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 14/02/2018 16:26

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3168331-Westministenders-Groundhog-Day?watched=1

New thread

OP posts:
Peregrina · 14/02/2018 16:58

It [the Tory party] will literally die out.

Bring it on!. Off to the new thread now.

WifeofDarth · 14/02/2018 18:48

Sorry for the pause mrsr thanks for stepping in mother. Yes we're keeping options open for that, even if it means an extra year to get the languages up to scratch.

Motheroffourdragons · 14/02/2018 19:45

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

mybrainhurtsalot · 14/02/2018 21:05

DG Rossetti: “Surely only the parliamentary party votes the leader in?”

IIRC the Conservative parliamentary party whittles the shortlist down to two candidates via a number of secret ballots, then the final two go forward to the members.

TM didn’t go to the party members as the other person in the final two (Andrea Leadsom) dropped out before that could happen. I suppose in theory they could have started the process again, but there was an eagerness to get the whole thing sorted out.

WifeofDarth · 14/02/2018 23:40

:

BigChocFrenzy · 15/02/2018 15:43

I don't understand why Johnson's speech was supposed to be "reaching out" to Remainers Confused

It was all about accepting the Ultras Brexit vision, not EEA / EFTA - which would have been a compromise which respected the Referendum result

Maybe he thought that promising drunken sex tours of E European cities was sufficient compensation for Brexit
Maybe an interesting insight into the murky realms of what kind of things motivate him
but not conciliatory to most Remainers, imo

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