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Brexit

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

992 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/01/2018 00:18

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
67
LineySt · 30/01/2018 15:06

Thank god for this thread. And you, Red.

DGRossetti · 30/01/2018 15:11

Does Norways membership of the SM/CU allow it to negotiate outside trade deals ? Or would it be bound by needing EU agreement ?

RedToothBrush · 30/01/2018 15:16

Norway can make its own trade deals, yes. The UK would not be able to during transition.

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DGRossetti · 30/01/2018 15:23

Norway can make its own trade deals, yes. The UK would not be able to during transition.

Hmmm Hmm.

Any Excel experts around ? I'm sure you''l have already recognised a circular reference error here ....

While the UK is in a transitional arrangement, it cannot negotiate independent trade deals ...

The UK will leave the transitional arrangement when it has negotiated the necessary trade deals ...

RedToothBrush · 30/01/2018 15:27

I think its rather like this:

With part of the problem actually being we don't know what we want afterwards making us prisoners of our device.

This is the point:

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Best Lords speech yet: a withering attack from ex-DexEU minister Lord Bridges on Cabinet's Brexit dithering: "We cannot indulge in that very British habit of just muddling through. The Prime Minister must make choices. Keeping every option open is no longer an option".

OP posts:
Peregrina · 30/01/2018 15:30

I think that Norway isn't in the Customs Union - hence the need for some border controls. (Which the Brexiteers dismiss as a detail to be waived away - it'll sort itself out somehow.)

DGRossetti · 30/01/2018 15:36

Actually, RTB, I think it's more like this.

Every Brexiteer needs to watch this. Remainers have already seen it ....

RedToothBrush · 30/01/2018 15:42

The issue for the UK is that we simply won't be ready for border controls for 3 - 5 years realistically. Nor will many EU countries who have port ties with the UK. The volume is just too high.

Therefore we CAN NOT leave the CU. Since we haven't officially and properly started to make preparation for this, it keeps us in. The new computer system currently being installed, just won't be good enough. It doesn't have the capacity to handle the number of shipments.

Every business needs to be told how to deal with the changes and to put in place the technology / staff capability to handle the change too.

Its unrealistic at this point, to say we could do that in three years.

But the longer we procrastinate going on about how we want this, but not that, the longer it is before we can get the infrastructure in place to do it.

In some respects we NEED things to be frozen in effect during transition so we can focus politically on doing that.

OP posts:
woman11017 · 30/01/2018 15:55

HaggisUK - #FBPE 🇬🇧 🇪🇺‏*@Haggis*UK
Nicholas Soames - Many businesses in my constituency are nervous about the cavalier attitude of some #Brexiteer opinions to their companies continued success. Will the government negotiate a result that doesn't damage the long-term success of our country.

DGRossetti · 30/01/2018 16:01

Nicholas Soames - Many businesses in my constituency are nervous about the cavalier attitude of some #Brexiteer opinions to their companies continued success. Will the government negotiate a result that doesn't damage the long-term success of our country.

(this is the second time in 5 days I have remembered this ...)

In "Messaih Complex", Russell Brand observes that one image for the poster for the show caused some consternation in Germany, as it featured a swastika (or more technically, a hooked cross, thank you QI). When he asked why it was a problem, he was told that it was banned in Germany.

His response, is similar to what the UKs should be to Mr, Soames above ....

It's a bit fucking late for that now, innit ?

DGRossetti · 30/01/2018 16:46

In the light of the Labour Brexit awayday, thought I'd link this

www.change.org/p/jeremy-corbyn-mp-my-vote-for-labour-was-not-a-vote-for-brexit

I wonder if the future is starting - tantalisingly out of the fog - to shape up between socialist Labour government in the EU, or a rampant Tory government out of the EU ?

Put like that, you'd have to hold me down to stop me voting for Labour twice ....

woman11017 · 30/01/2018 17:31

Busting Lexit myths doc for Labour.
d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/in/pages/14074/attachments/original/1517224151/lexit_paper_finalONLINE.pdf?1517224151

I emailed new prospective non momentum local labour candidate re Labour and remain.
Email back included "the mood seems to be changing".

New Pro EU group being formed in same town. 3 new Pro EU groups in my county in fact. Will be liaising with all the parties.

Trouble is, what is really happening?

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 30/01/2018 18:40

Sorry to pollute the thread with more dorries but the rhetoric seems a bit inflammatory

Alex Wickham
@WikiGuido
Steve Baker reveals he saw Treasury / Cabinet Office doc for the first time this morning, and DD only saw it last night

Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
A civil servants head needs to roll. Someone leaked it.

Also [re pic]

Jonathan Lis
@jonlis1
Extremely serious allegation to make in Commons. Davies is not only accusing senior civil servants of lying, but of mounting some kind of back-door coup.

These people will slash and burn literally anything to avoid owning up to magnitude of their folly and its disastrous results

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM
OlennasWimple · 30/01/2018 18:56

IDS and the Labour Brexit spokesperson on Jeremy Vine this morning were both awful in their own ways

Dh is gobsmacked that a report like this is only supposed to exist in a paper copy and is being shown to cabinet ministers on a 1:1 basis

It's not that unheard of for very sensitive papers to be handled like this. But it should make the leak inquiry easier to resolve (there will be a leak inquiry, right?)

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 30/01/2018 19:01

Found you again!

Place marking...

thecatfromjapan · 30/01/2018 19:13

A choice between a 'socialist Labour government in the EU, or a rampant Tory government out of the EU ?'

Grin

You've given me my first smile of the day, DG.

prettybird · 30/01/2018 19:25

Olennaswimple - the reason my dh was so gobsmacked was because these impact assessments weren't supposed to exist, were demanded via a humble request requested to be produced and supposedly couldn't be provided in any specific form as they hadn't been produced weren't and yet are now available on a 1:1 basis. Hmm

It is yet another example of how our democracy has become further corrupted. SadAngry

OlennasWimple · 30/01/2018 19:27

Schroedinger's Impact Assessments innit? They don't exist except when they do, but by looking at them they cease to exist

BigChocFrenzy · 30/01/2018 19:27

GlassofPort The Norway option, i.e. EEA /EFTA membership would be much better for the UK than the proposed Brexit transition:

  • EEA/ EFTA countriies only has to follow about 20% of the EU acqui (rules) whereas the UK must follow 100 % of them

  • EEA/ EFTA countries negotiate their own trade deals. they also share some common EEA/ EFTA FTAs with non-EU countriies. The UK won't be anle to negotiate new deals without asking permission of the EU in each case

  • EEA/ EFTA countriies jointly have a say in many changes the EU might make - the transition proposals give the UK no mechanism to do this.

  • EEA/ EFTA countriies in trade disputes with the EU have recourse to a joint EFTA-ECJ court, in which some of their judges sit. The UK would be bound totally by the ECJ, but it has already lost its judges

BigChocFrenzy · 30/01/2018 19:29

Was DD lying to the HoC, or was he just too dim to realise his dept had indeed done impact assessments on the sectors ? Hmm
I'm not sure which alternative is the more worrying

Judging by his performance so far, I suspect he is both dim and lying

prettybird · 30/01/2018 19:32

Grin OlennasWimple Love it.

But in Schrödinger's spirit, I am simultaneously SadAngryHmm and Confused**

BigChocFrenzy · 30/01/2018 19:40

Nick Gutteridge@nick_gutteridge

The EU is now just desperate for UK to put forward anything it can actually work with.
Last Autumn there was a sense of irritation that we'd been harping on about trade but not come up with anything.
In December, that developed into concern.
It's now fast turning into panic.

< if you're not panicking yet, you don't know what's going on e.g. DD >

BigChocFrenzy · 30/01/2018 20:13

Already unravelled: DD & Fox's casual assumption that all 70 countries will agree to "rollover" FTAs with the EU, i.e. let the UK continue in their FTAs

Fox suffers South Africa trade setback

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fox-suffers-south-africa-trade-setback-wwv0jzpff

"He [South Africa’s trade minister] will say that while he is hopeful a new agreement could be ready by the time Britain leaves the EU in 2019,
there will have to be a renegotiation of agricultural quotas and sanitary standards"

Mistigri · 30/01/2018 20:15

Tbh I think we are heading fast towards the point where the EU suggests that A50 be extended. The transition doesn't really resolve any of the underlying problems, it simply pushes the problem a couple of years down the road. Of course the transition could be extended, but not indefinitely, because eventually it will cause problems with the WTO. And while the UK govt has literally not the slightest idea what sort of Brexit it wants, it cannot prepare for the end of transition.

Plus, 2 years or even 3 is obviously not long enough for anything harder than Norway, and even Norway is stretch to implement in that time period.

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