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Brexit

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

992 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/01/2018 00:18

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

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Thread gallery
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BigChocFrenzy · 30/01/2018 22:41

And another one …

Brexit minister [Steve Baker] says Whitehall economic forecasts always wrong

< Great way to give the public confidence >

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/30/brexit-minister-says-whitehall-economic-forecasts-are-always-wrong

BigChocFrenzy · 30/01/2018 22:48

Naughty EU insisting on making us have clean air.
What's wrong with patriotically dirty British air ?

And even after Brexit, we'll still be liable for large polluter fines that may be imposed as early as next week.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jan/30/uk-given-days-to-show-it-will-comply-with-eu-air-quality-laws

The commission has moved slowly, waiting for a year after sending a reasoned opinion to the UK last February. But after finally moving, any fines levied could now be significant.
“If you take the seriousness and how long it’s been taking place for, it could be quite a big amount,” one EU source said.

Post-Brexit, the UK would still be liable to pay court fines handed down for offences committed when it was a member, in Brussels’ view.
“If the European commission takes the UK to court and the court takes a verdict on that, even if that verdict falls after the date of Brexit, logically speaking, the UK should still pay the fines for that,”
an EU source told the Guardian.

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 30/01/2018 23:01

Dh has just come home and was talking about the lack of taking the bespoke deal into account. He said it was like me telling him there's no way we are coming through this year without furthering our debt and him saying that I've failed to take into account his plan to win the lottery in August Grin

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 30/01/2018 23:09

Labour is to force a binding vote on whether Theresa May should publish the Brexit impact papers

uk.businessinsider.com/labour-is-to-force-a-binding-vote-on-whether-theresa-may-should-publish-the-brexit-impact-papers-2018-1

RedToothBrush · 30/01/2018 23:30

Times Editorial

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/open-secrets-k5skpbbtb
Open Secrets

Instead of being leaked, Whitehall’s Brexit forecasts should be published

George Freeman MP @ freeman_george
Correct call from @thetimes: democracy & the national interest cannot be served by conspiring to keep secret inconvenient official advice to our Ministers. As Tony Blair showed with #Iraq, winning a mandate on a false prospectus would undermine us all.

Again this looks suspiciously like a head popping up over the parapet.

Again not one of core mutineers and regarded as a moderate, influential and well respected Tory MP.

www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-the-truth-about-brexit-revealed-for-all-to-see-a3753191.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true
Evening Standard comment: The truth about Brexit, revealed for all to see

Anna Soubry MP @ anna_soubrymp
Spot on. Let’s start putting the economy first by joining EFTA which will also solve Irish border & bring Tory party & country together

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RedToothBrush · 31/01/2018 00:04

David Cavalla @ cavallad
IMPORTANT DETAIL: the Brexit Impact Analysis leaked today to BuzzFeed was compiled by @DExEUgov under favourable assumptions that we will soon enter into trade deals with US, China and India. This is not a likely scenario: #BrexitReality worse than this report suggests.

Can't verify the truth in this. But its there for your consideration.

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Dobby1sAFreeElf · 31/01/2018 07:06

Just switched on the TV to see someone claiming TM is likely to address the issue of human rights with the Chinese, most likely in private. She's asking for tip isn't she?

Hasenstein · 31/01/2018 07:50

I know it's only January, but I'd already like to nominate Steven Baker for Backpfeifengesicht of the year. If he wins, I bagsy first go!

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 31/01/2018 08:18

Treeza says she’s intending to fight the next election.

Guess that means she’s expecting to lose a confidence vote, the.

Peregrina · 31/01/2018 08:25

Treeza says she’s intending to fight the next election.

So she'll be gone soon, either falling on her sword, or being daft enough to call another election.

RedToothBrush · 31/01/2018 09:04

How apt for the thread

www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/pro-brexit-mp-explodes-20180131143455
Pro-Brexit MP explodes

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BigChocFrenzy · 31/01/2018 09:12

Does the govt only have red lines wrt the EU ? Hmm

The US, China and several other countries will demand "relaxation" - i.e. lowering - of food standards
India and China will demand more visas for their citizens to work in the UK and to bring their families

Not popular with a lot of UK voters

DGRossetti · 31/01/2018 09:17

Treeza says she’s intending to fight the next election.

Maybe she's channelling her inner John Major (mind bleach, please) ?

Resign as leader, and challenge anyone who thinks they can do better to take over.

Because ultimately, for all their bluster, we know there is no one - no one at all who wants to be PM right now.

The Tory party can then either dissolve into myriads of contenders, or force the MPs who are all telling us what a wonderful job Theresa is doing to put their vote where their mouth is, and back her.

Such a move might actually, albeit briefly, blindside the EU.

Of course if she is forced out it's not her problem anymore. But we are back to square one in that we have no idea who could possibly succeed her.

In fact the more I think about it, the more sense it makes. Stand down now while there's no clear replacement.

Such a move - especially if it came unexpectedly (i.e. without being "advised") could be kill or cure for the Tories.

I think it's worth noting that as things stand, May doesn't have the ability to call a snap election. The only thing she has power over is whether she resigns as Tory leader.

I know what Machiavelli would advise ...

DGRossetti · 31/01/2018 09:23

India and China will demand more visas for their citizens to work in the UK and to bring their families

India already did last year- and been told to piss off. We can't be so cavalier with our nuclear power station construction partner. But then I suspect far fewer Chinese people would want to settle in the UK anyway.

lonelyplanetmum · 31/01/2018 09:44

But then I suspect far fewer Chinese people would want to settle in the UK anyway.

Well we need nurses, for example.

Wouldn’t impoverished rural Chinese still be prepared to come? If encouraged and guaranteed work here ?
However given the gender imbalance following the one child policy, perhaps China probably wouldn’t want to lose women? However we could have male Chinese nurses, if there is such a thing and if are any going spare ?

My friend who’s an NHS consultant said on her wards they are acutely struggling to implement the care needed due to the disappearing EU nurses.

I said well surely we will have to prioritise recruiting from whoever we are likely to get trade deals with. Her view was looking it overall the EU nurses were the best( due to training and language proficiency) although obviously there were exceptions.

We have tried to recruit Chinese nurses before...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/770496.stm

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2005/feb/05/workandcareers.nhsstaff

MichaelBendfaster · 31/01/2018 10:08

Gavin Williamson taking down the EU flag thing: is he allowed to do that?!

DGRossetti · 31/01/2018 10:16

I'd love to hear from more knowledgeable folk than I, but I think that India and China aren't comparable when it comes to the UK.

There's still an affection for Britain in India at some level - which inevitable given how close and how long we have interacted. (My grandfather was born in Darjeeling, spoke Hindi, and regarded himself as Indian-British. When I had a team of Indian developers I told this too, they went all misty eyed about the past and "Jewel in the Crown" etc etc etc)

There's none of that with China. Generally China/Britain relations started in earnest when the British sailed gunboats in China and forced them to buy opium.

Twice.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Opium_War

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Opium_War

Playing on peoples historical ignorance is a dangerous game. Fuck all British people know anything about the Opium wars, whilst wallowing in the myth of Empire. But they are very good reasons for the Chinese to have a jaundiced view of Britain. Especially the gung-ho Imperial Britain that Brexiteers are so desperate to invoke.

RedToothBrush · 31/01/2018 10:17

Harry Cole @ mrharrycole
^Last night Ministers and No10 insisted the brexit document was produced with a “worrying lack of political oversight” - suspect today that will be stress tested to the extreme. PM presser in around 30
mins.. Commons debate this afternoon... would be highly unusual breach...^

Ffs. May distancing herself from report

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DGRossetti · 31/01/2018 10:18

Gavin Williamson taking down the EU flag thing: is he allowed to do that?!

It's more a case of is there a law against it ?

Hopefully the more sane leavers will be dismayed at such an act .... although with admirable economy of effort, he has managed to tell 26 countries to "FUCK OFF" with a single gesture. If only the rest of the British workforce were so productive.

lonelyplanetmum · 31/01/2018 10:23

Yes Rosetti instinctively I think you are right and that future migration is more likely to come from India than China or perhaps somewhere we haven't thought of!

Although unless a political saviour rises from the ashes soon no-one will want to come here at all, plus there will be a massive exodus the other way. My older step DCs are talking about it already (except who'd have us one of them is thinking Dubai?) .

MichaelBendfaster · 31/01/2018 10:25

DG, I suppose that's what I meant.

And could they be taken down before we've even left? Confused

DGRossetti · 31/01/2018 10:32

future migration is more likely to come from India than China or perhaps somewhere we haven't thought of!

Well the whole world can manage English. One of the legacies of having a fucking empire - you know: that empire BoJo bangs on about it.

Henning Wehn has a nice routine where he's glad the Germans lost WW1, as it made them lose their colonies with the result that German is only spoken ... in Germany. So when he calls his bank ....

DGRossetti · 31/01/2018 10:34

I suspect flags are flown under some sort of code of conduct, rather than statute law.

Same way the UK doesn't have a "national anthem" (thank goodness).

So, come on, Charlie. You are a massive Parry fan (loved your BBC doumentary - you should make more). Your first act as King could be to suggest "Jerusalem" be played as the anthem.

Hasenstein · 31/01/2018 11:25

Government decides not oppose Labour motion calling for Brexit report to be published

The Labour motion calling for the Brexit impact report to be given to the Brexit select committee (with a view to publication) will be passed. According to Tory sources, government MPs are being told to abstain - which means the motion will go through unopposed.

www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jan/31/brexit-vote-impact-report-may-press-conference-pmqs-parliament-renovation-minister-urges-may-to-rethink-her-brexit-strategy-in-light-of-government-impact-analysis-politics-live

So why did Steven Baker spend so much time in the HoC yesterday bullshitting about not wanting to publish the report because it needed more work? I can't keep track of whether these impact assessments exist or not or can be published or can't.

DGRossetti · 31/01/2018 11:50

Every motion in the HoC is like an unexploded bomb.

Given this governments track record of competence, they might just lost a vote by mistake.

I look forward to seeing the next stage of the DRIPA fightback, now the courts have ruled. We'll need a parliamentary vote to fix it which is not happening anytime soon. A good time to get any claims for damages/compensation in ....