Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

[RedToothBrush]

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

Osbourne advocating EFTA

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-the-truth-about-brexit-revealed-for-all-to-see-a3753191.html

The Government is engaged in an act of economic self-harm — and now we know that it knows it.

I love that they keep saying these reports have been leaked on purpose and I keep thinking well it wasn't going to happen by accident was it.

they all hate May and think she's shit

And therein lies the rub. Those of them who are smart enough to be less shit than May will not want to deal with all the shit being flung around the Tory party. Leaving only those who are more shit than May wanting the job.

One can think of this as some kind of inverse Darwinism. Survival of the shittest, if you will.

Tbh I think we are heading fast towards the point where the EU suggests that A50 be extended.

Quite. In a head-tilty "Do you need some time out?" kind of way.

And while the UK govt has literally not the slightest idea what sort of Brexit it wants, it cannot prepare for the end of transition.

Au Contraire - it knows exactly what it wants - to pay the same or reduced contributions and continue to get the rebate, to still have a seat at the decision making tables, but not to be bound by Freedom of Movement and not have to take any note of the ECJ. In short - it wants the membership of the club without any of the obligations and an extra helping of the concessions it has already been granted. This as we all know, is not, never has been, and is unlikely to ever be on the table.

I think that Norway isn't in the Customs Union - hence the need for some border controls. (Which the Brexiteers dismiss as a detail to be waived away - it'll sort itself out somehow.)

Lessons from Norway-Sweden border for post-Brexit Britain

www.politico.eu/article/brexit-ireland-border-customs-norway-sweden/

The UK does already have cross-border smuggling issues, of course.

Pete, mate, posters have been saying this on here since 24 June 2016. I'm sometimes tempted to direct him here but he'd never post as he hates is terrified of women.

Pete North
‏

1. What bothers me about the Tory right is they are presently fixated on Singapore as a model for #Brexit. This is where fantasy clashes with reality. Singapore is a trade hub because of its geographical position - the Schipol of the Pacific.

1. It doesn't really bother with standard trade controls and tariffs largely because most of the freight goes elsewhere - similar to the Rotterdam effect. It is also a city state able to take advantage of its unusual status as a services engine for the region.

1. And this tells us a lot about the Tory mindset. Steve Baker has links with the BBA and they are thinking about Brexit only in terms of opportunities for the City - and bugger everyone else.

1. Even Minford's daft theories dispense with manufacturing and economic activity related to the real economy - ie that which you and I work in. That;s why they couldn't care less about third country customs controls. It's not relevant to financial services.

1. And that basically means it's curtains for UK agriculture too. So what this tells you is that their model of Brexit is a London Brexit, as though Westminster were governing a city state geared to financial services and nothing else.

1. But see Britain isn't a city state. You and I know that the Uk is far more and there can be nothing worse than an economic policy that seeks only to serve London - making the regions even more beholden to London.

1. Good governance governs in the interests of the whole country, not just the capital. If the regions are financed centrally then they will be governed centrally. Bang goes any hope of real local democracy.

1. Worse still this is all on the mega gamble that the City thrives irrespective of Brexit even without a deal on services. I have seen compelling arguments that this may be the case but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

1. More to the point, the UK is also a knowledge and innovation economy that trades in intellectual property and the EU market is not one we want to abandon. That means maintaining real economy industry.

10. As much as it is sensible to have strategic reserve capability in manufacturing and food production, this is also our petridish for technological innovations coupled with universities. R&D is mega money.

11. The TL:DR version of this thread is that the UK is a mixed economy, one where its industries define the culture and the regions and are not dispensable on the altar of globalisation. It matters.

12. And if you need it spelling out - Britain is not Singapore. We're about something more than that. If we're just gearing the economy for the convenience of the banks then we might as well give up on democracy completely.

13. Effectively we're watching a coup by the Tory right, obsessed with the doctrine of free trade while having little comprehension of what it entails. People with a binary belief that protectionism in its own right is fundamentally bad without looking at strategic objectives.

14. The very last thing we can afford to do is to have trade policy as the tail wagging the dog otherwise we become passengers of globalisation subject to all its ravages with no control over it.

Esther Webber @ estwebber
Baroness Northover says it's appropriate that the Lords who've been confronting the govt on Henry VIII powers are called Hope, Judge and Pannick

Au Contraire - it knows exactly what it wants - to pay the same or reduced contributions and continue to get the rebate, to still have a seat at the decision making tables, but not to be bound by Freedom of Movement and not have to take any note of the ECJ.

Some members of government want that (they probably still believe in the tooth fairy too) but the cabinet has not yet had the "which Brexit" discussion.

There are still at least three Brexit camps in govt, if not four - the ERG Singapore-model group (hey, who needs agriculture or manufacturing?) which includes the likes of Steve Baker, the closet remainers (Hammond, Rudd, Hunt), and the terminally confused (Johnson, Fox).

Dr Phillip Lee MP @ drphillipleemp
The next phase of Brexit has to be all about the evidence. We can’t just dismiss this and move on. If there is evidence to the contrary, we need to see and consider that too.
But if these figures turn out to be anywhere near right, there would be a serious question over whether a government could legitimately lead a country along a path that the evidence and rational consideration indicate would be damaging. This shows the PM's challenge...2/3
The PM has been dealt some tough cards and I support her mission to make the best of them. It’s time for evidence, not dogma, to show the way. We must act for our country’s best interests, not ideology & populism, or history will judge us harshly. Our country deserves no less 3/3

Is it my imagination or did I just spy a head pop up above the parapit for a second?

Note Phillip Lee is not one of the Brexit Mutineers and has kept in line with the government position throughout.

Dr Phillip Lee MP
Dr Phillip Lee MP
@DrPhillipLeeMP
The next phase of Brexit has to be all about the evidence. We can’t just dismiss this and move on. If there is evidence to the contrary, we need to see and consider that too.

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be#click=t.co/A0MeP9BCJr" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be#click=t.co/A0MeP9BCJr

But if these figures turn out to be anywhere near right, there would be a serious question over whether a government could legitimately lead a country along a path that the evidence and rational consideration indicate would be damaging. This shows the PM's challenge...2/3

The PM has been dealt some tough cards and I support her mission to make the best of them. It’s time for evidence, not dogma, to show the way. We must act for our country’s best interests, not ideology & populism, or history will judge us harshly. Our country deserves no less 3/3

Sam Coates Times
@SamCoatesTimes
From one Tory MP, a call to pay heed to evidence

Whoops xpost

It seems extraordinary when someone in government states an actual, common-sense truth like that, doesn't it?

It is, of course, extraordinary that a Prime Minister should lead a country into a course of action that they know will be utterly destructive.

And yet, rather as in an obverse of the fairytale, 'The Emperor's New Clothes', the articulating of that reality just seems extraordinary.

it wants the membership of the club without any of the obligations and an extra helping of the concessions it has already been granted. This as we all know, is not, never has been, and is unlikely to ever be on the table.

cheeky fucker who stamps foot and flounces off dramatically when their cheeky fuckery is pointed out to them. like the famous mexican house thief

brownelephant You've perfectly defined the swivel-eyed Brexiters: Mexican house thieves
< ah, that was a lovely thread >

Place mark - bit late to the party.
At least remainer Lords have almost nothing to lose by telling the truth about this disaster.

Depressed. If I go and look look at cute kittens on YouTube will it all go away?

Interesting thread:
@TobyVenables
Today, I have been puzzling over this poster advertising a march in support of Brexit and Britain. Initially, it raised a smile because of its 'No EU flags' instruction. But then I started to wonder where it actually came from.

twitter.com/TobyVenables/status/958364721878577153

Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Sen. Richard Burr, said on Wednesday:

Russia organized 2 sides of a Texas protest and encouraged 'both sides to battle in the streets'

uk.businessinsider.com/russia-trolls-senate-intelligence-committee-hearing-2017-11?r=US&IR=T

This is starting to get really predictable and boring now.

They could have put a little more effort into this front page headline.

No there is no secret plan. This is called brexshit hitting the wall of reality.

By contrast Scotland says there is a plot to cover up the economics of Brexshit!

Plotters all of yous!

That's kind of linked to where that thread goes, BigChoc and where did the 10 000 strong 'Football Lads Alliance' appear from out of no where in October 2017.
www.searchlightmagazine.com/2017/10/football-lads-alliance-the-far-right-march-plus-six-things-you-need-to-know/

This leaked Brexit memo means Labour must make a choice

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/30/leaked-brexit-memo-labour-choice-poorer

Under every scenario considered for leaving the EU, Britain would be worse off, with any Brexit bonus from new trade deals hopelessly dwarfed by the losses.
It hasn’t been published, a Department for Exiting the European Union source helpfully explained, “because it’s embarrassing”.
Well, quite.

That Daily Express headline probably chimes incredibly well with their readers, though. I'm sure a lot of them think that life is full of conspiracies that stop them from succeeding in their aims and objectives. I think Brexit appealed to a lot of people with a somewhat paranoid mindset and experience life as a series of frustrations.

Cover of the telegraph and I bet the story of the day tomorrow, barring Brexshit /leadership nonsense.

The limit of tax free inheritance to go up from £3000 a year. Obviously being seen as way to transfer wealth from one generation to next earlier.

BigChoc. Quite.

Was it on here that someone was explaining that 5% off GDP is equivalent to the Great Depression in effect?

I'm quite sure that there will be Brexiters explaining to us that the economic hit will be worth it, we were all living to high on the hog anywya, and had become too soft, and siultaneously trying to paint the Depression as a cozy time, when families pulled together and grew their own vegetables. Kind of like the 'Milly Molly Mandy' stories, or a cozy Agatha Christie thriller.