The Brexit Arms

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Welcome to The Brexit Arms!
Looking forwards, not backward!

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The only way we'll settle this is to put your money where you mouth is mummmy

God knows how we'll make this work but I am a woman of my word; I bet you £100 that come March 29th 2019 we will not have walked away with no deal.

However, while TM and her band of merry idiots carry on blathering meaningless mantras, Lloyds of London are moving their base to Brussels, the major banks are all setting up in Frankfurt or elsewhere, and other businesses are moving as well (see Galileo, the EMA etc.),.

This is all business permanently lost. It won't be coming back, even if we don't leave. Euro clearing will eventually be based in Frankfurt, costing the city billions.

This is the biggest act of self harm since Nero.

The thing about getting trade deals is we couldn't do our own with any country we wanted we were restricted to the EU ones and they were made to appease 28 countries so hardly specific to our needs and most not with countries we traditionally trade with. I think it will be much easier for us to get trade deals with other countries than it is for the EU as they have to consider all the different needs of all the 27 and we would only have ourselves to please.

40% of our exports are with the EU but that is only 8% of our total output but we have to adhere 100% to all EU regulations for everything we make. Many of the things we make/do will never be exported so there is no need for them to adhere to EU rules.

We shouldn't have too much problem getting trade deals with the countries who already have trade deals with the EU. I think many of the countries have said as much.

40% of our exports are with the EU but that is only 8% of our total output

I think you might want to recheck those numbers with Google double

Bear I don't bet, never have, so won't make a exception for your, watching someone you love take their own life over betting does tend to mean you refused too engage.

I have many times said I would rather there was a deal.

I also simply wanted you to acknowledge that much as everyone would rather it never happend the no deal could happen if there was no agreement. You can't say with 100% certainty it wont' happen, because even the EU have admitted to having to look into it.

I won’t acknowledge that mummy as I believe no deal will never happen as passionstely as you believe it ‘might’

But Bear the EU is drawing up plans in case it happens.
Members of the Tory Part have said they would like it to happen.
Several countries are worried it could happen.

Can't you just admit your worse ever nightmare would be if it happened.

I was wondering gently: What might things look like if labour had won the last election?

Would it be a similar brexit trajectory with different window dressing? Or a very different approach to the negotiations? Or a total u turn?

I find it hard to tell, because of course labour has the advantage of bring in opposition that different people can say they would do different things but none of it actually has to be thrashed out to a conclusion. Or maybe that's just how the brexit process inevitably is (obscured and apparently confused, regardless of who is in charge)

I also had some vague musings about how we tend to see international trade, especially free trade within a big bloc as A Good Thing. I wonder whether there are sectorsof society or the economy for whom that is not the case? Maybe farmers, fishermen, that sort of thing? If so, and it is late night half baked, that might help to explain the rural/urban split in the referendum result.

Sorry Bear, you are right 40% should read 44% and 8% should be 12% but what I said still stands.

"I think it will be much easier for us to get trade deals with other countries than it is for the EU as they have to consider all the different needs of all the 27 and we would only have ourselves to please."

Really?

How easy do you think it will be to get an FTA with Trump's USA? Taking into consideration that NAFTA may well be for the chop - and that's stood for decades?

I've repeatedly asked this about trade deals. Have any of them answered? Have they fuck!

It's ,part of the JRM, BoJo, DM, Scum narrative. We're the mighty British Empire! All other nations shall bow down in quiescence and do what we tell them.

They can't get their heads around the fact that we're not that important any more. It's the quintessence of arrogance. And it will kill us.

"I think it will be much easier for us to get trade deals with other countries than it is for the EU as they have to consider all the different needs of all the 27 and we would only have ourselves to please."

Why can't Britain just terminate its agreement with the EU? You only have yourselves to please - right?

Two year REMAIN extension after BREXIT in March 2019? What are you afraid of? It's easy - right?

"Australia ready to do post-Brexit trade deal – but EU comes first "

Australia’s PM Malcolm Turnbull says his country won’t ‘muck around’ but first wants free trade agreement with bloc

Why might that be? Hmm ..easy - right?

But Bear the EU is drawing up plans in case it happens.

Yes and DD threw his toys out of the pran over that because he said it undermined the confidence of British businesses because he knows damn well it will never happen.

The EU are calling our bluff.

Which regulations should these products which aren’t being exported not have to obey? And how about regulations like the GDPR which apply if someone from the EU looks at your website and your website uses cookies? You can’t control that and can’t apply different standards. What do you think about the fact that the regulations are intended to protect consumer interests and individual rights?

Think? Brexit is not about thinking, it's about stirring up combative nationalism. 'The Brexit Arms', 'The Battle of Brexit", etc. all to dupe people into feeling like they are fighting for something worthwhile. Meanwhile expert analyses, impact reports and other results of deeper thinking are uncalled for. It's a race to intellectual bottom.

It's a race to intellectual bottom

Indeed, see the comments about not engaging in debate, not answering questions and just wanting chit chat.

Take back control and stick it to those intellectuals. Nationalism really is the last resort etc etc

Which ever way this goes, we will have the right to make trade deals.

They may take some time to sort, but your wrong to imply that they will never materialize, it's the way you always look for the bad, and doom, we won't be living in a tent with no electric, and no money. Yet anyone who listened to you would be convinced that would be the end outcome of a downward spiral.

It's a race to intellectual bottom
Give over, we know that things will level out, and then adjust and go in a different , people tried to say this would happen the day after we voted out, Osborne was the CE and if he with all the info to hand got project fear so very wrong, doesn't that show that information and figures can be made to read how ever the person in charge wants them to read.
I used to work on Management accounts for a massive company, and we would hide money in budgets, include orders not yet finalized in order to make the figures read the way we were told to by the Chairman....

This is always going to be a case of reports being bias towards who ever ordered them.
For this reason I am willing to just wait and see what happens, as I know I really have no choice.

Mummy the comment about "intellectual bottom" was not specifically about finance. It was more about the quality of debate and decision making. People refusing to engage with facts but focusing on amorphous desires.

My particular bugbear is when posters claim the EU is "not democratic" a clearly nonsensical comment that is repeated often. A simple google of EU structures would answer the question but the same old lie is repeated over and over again. See intellectual bottom. You might not like the way it is structured but it is undoubtedly democratic.

But we are debating things that we have no influence on so it's all theoretical anyway.

It was the very democratic process that worried me, may times the UK had been overruled and just like you don't like how it produced this current situation, I didn't like how it would have produced the United States of Europe. So I used my vote to leave.

Or did I get it wrong when someone's war cry was " the European Union (EU) will move towards greater integration "

Give over, we know that things will level out, and then adjust and go in a different

The part you are spectacularly refusing to acknowledge is that we cannot just jump over a cliff edge and hope for the best.

We need time to put alternative measures in place if we were to even consider no deal as a viable option.

Just one example is flights, if we crash out this no deal, all our flights would be grounded.

Given we've spent the best part of 2 years posturing and strutting but actually doing fuck all about preparing for any meaningful change, it's quite clear we aren't going to go down the no deal route.

It's a loaded dice; it might look to you that all 6 sides have an equal chance of landing on top but they don't, it's just an illusion to pacify those who want it to happen, one side can never happen.

They may take some time to sort, but your wrong to imply that they will never materialize, it's the way you always look for the bad, and doom, we won't be living in a tent with no electric, and no money.
No one has said we will end up living in tents. Do you not understand that looking at possible negative outcomes is not 'doom-mongering', but realism? Do you understand that we are not 'looking for' the bad; it's there in front of us in the form of EU nurses going home, of companies leaving the UK, in the form of SMEs going bust because of the exchange rate?

*It's a race to intellectual bottom

Indeed, see the comments about not engaging in debate, not answering questions and just wanting chit chat.*

Those are my comments you've quoted.
Don't worry though dear, I'm doing just fine intellectually.

I understand sat here as we are commenting on all this is a waste of time, there is nothing we can do.
We can make wild assumptions or say but that can't happen, won't happen, but it effects NOTHING.

You are all so over invested in this, the only people who can and will make this happen are not sat on MN. No matter how much we debate this and how upset your going to get over it all, NOTHING is going to change. Because though this effects us, we have no direct input into this , we voted and now HAVE to watch and accept the end out come. That is Real life.

Anyone want to come run around in Horseguards, have your point written on your arse, and we can get some TV air time.