The Brexit Arms

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Thought I'd dust off the optics & open the bar for the festive period

If any of the the old crowd are still around, then do pop in for a Christmas catch up & join me in toasting the end of the beginning!

Onward! To Brexit!

🍷 🥃 🍸 🍹 🍾 🥂 🍻 🍺

Have you read this, Norway or No way.

Yes. The author seems to be quite clear that a no-deal scenario would be a disaster. So, mummy, if it came to no-deal, how do you think parliament would react? How do you think the government could sell this to the people? As a Leaver, is no-deal something you'd be happy with, given the likely impact on the UK and its economy/standing?

Genuine question. To those of you who voted Leave, is this how you envisaged things 19 months after the vote? Are you happy with the way things are going?

And the Norway option isn't quite good enough for the Irish border, as they are not in the Customs Union. So we'll more than likely end up with a Norway+ situation that looks exactly like full EU membership except without a say in anything.

Well done Brexiteers!

This really is starting to look completely pointless isn't it?

I’m trying a different approach mummmy

Yesterday you acknowledged that we need a deal on financial services.

A ‘no deal’ scenario would guarantee that we do not have such a deal.

In what situation do you think we would ever choose that option?

Answer- we won’t. We can’t afford to.

The same principle applies the the hard border situation. That cannot happen but, as you refuse to see that, maybe the financial services scenario will make the principle clearer to you.

We’ll just string out a transition period during which we’ll still plough money into the EUs pots in return for the access we can’t manage without.

I think right now the point I was trying to hammer home to several on here is the No deal while not wanted is what could happen, Thank you for finally realising that point.

I was looking and it could be Norway plus. until we work out different trade deals. So we would pay which is fair, but it would be to create stability and not there till the end of time.

Should it become no deal, Parliament would have to cope, we would go to WTO and work backwards from there, as the graph I posted shows there is trade outside the EU.
Also we wouldn't stop trading with the EU. it would cost both of us in tariffs. but if the rest of the world can trade outside the SM and no one dies, then it does show it can be done.
With Regard to the GFA, then we would have to navigate a way as to make both sides happy. I have no idea what as it's not happened yet.

@mummmy2017

No deal = planes stop.

No deal = nuclear power plants stop

No deal = cancer treatments stop

Realistic. Whatever.

Get a grip woman.

Thanks, mummy. Would you mind answering my last question:
As a Leaver, is no-deal something you'd be happy with, given the likely impact on the UK and its economy/standing?

Olivia....... Denial. is a river in Egypt..

mummmy could you answer my question about what situation you can ever envisage whereby we walk away from our ability to trade in financial services?

We won't go straight to WTO though, that's what many Leavers fail to understand. We don't have membership of the WTO except as members of the EU. We would have to apply, agree to all of their rules (taking back control, eh?), and hoe that countries like Argentina don't throw spanners in the works for years unless we give them the Falklands.

Mummy, you keep pushing the "no deal" scenario, but it should not even be contemplated, as it would be the destruction of the UK. For all their showboating and playing to the gutter press, I don't think that TM and any of her cohort who can actually think (so I'm excluding David Davis) would think for a moment that no deal would be an option. The thing is, the EU is aware of this, so threatening them with "no deal" is, frankly, stupid.

Twofingers... my reply is

No deal is better than a bad deal tying us to the EU for ever.

Your forgetting if we get no deal, it will be because we can't agree.
This does not mean we won't then move forward and make agreements, after all the various agreements are already on the table, so it won't mean starting from nothing.

And how come if it's IMPOSSIBLE the EU and the UK still say it could happen.

No deal is better than a bad deal tying us to the EU for ever.
At any cost? How many decades of economic decline, for example, would be acceptable to you?

I didn't say it was the preferred.
But I am feed up of being told that it is impossible.

OliviaD68 - I think you are being a tad massively dramatic there. You are welcome to your drama Llama, I will stick with my Unicorn🦄.

twofingers - as I leaver I would take no deal over leaving in name only.

Am expecting a ‘pile in’ now but my response will be limited due to the number of tax returns I have to plough through this afternoon. Will revisit this evening.

twofingers - as I leaver I would take no deal over leaving in name only.
Again, at what cost? Maybe you can afford to ride out the storm, but what about the impacts on the less fortunate? Do you have a red line where you think no deal becomes unacceptable?

But yes, I would be willing to accept it.
That we stop paying the EU any money.
That prices rise, yes, but do you also think that other countries won't appear and want to trade with us.
After all we will have money from not paying the EU.
Unemployment.. if things are so expensive to import, doesn't this leave an opportunity for the UK to start production, we only stop manufacturing things because it was so much cheaper to buy it in.
The UK has talent, and we have a chance to change the makeup of the UK.
It won't stop the import of goods from anywhere.

Rabid nationalism, as exhibited by some Brexiters, is very hard to impossible to cure, if only because it's underlying causes are hard to address. Nationalism has unleashed untold misery upon the world, but even that fact does not change the minds of those who have not been affected personally (or even some of those who have).

If it also means people leave the UK due to the cost of living, the population will go down, and so the strain on social infrastructure will decrease, wages won't go down, but the cost of a house will fall, allowing more people the chance to buy.

Wages won't fall, and I know people say living standards will fall, but we have had to cut out bills, and I spent far more on Junk each month than I thought, I now buy better clothing, rather than more clothing and actually wear things, I eat seasonal food, it's not the end of the world that I don't book a 3k holiday anymore.

Mummy - What will we trade with other countries? Andrea Leadsom suggested artisan jams, which is clearly ridiculous. What manufactured goods could we export? Or do you think Indians and Chinese will be queuing up to import our services? How long do you imagine it would take to rebuild a manufacturing base? Are you not concerned that with the growth of AI, human labour will not be required to manufacture things (you'll have heard of 3D printers, for example), so unemployment may not necessarily be resolved by rebuilding a manufacturing base.

Nationalism doesn't apply to me at all,

I want things to change, I look at where the EU wants to head and I don't like it at all.
This is not about Germany, or France or any other country.
I don't like the direction a group of unelected people are trying to take this corner of the world...

I am allowed to stand up and say, I think this is wrong, I don't want the EU to have an Army even if it is in 25 years.
I don't like the way Greece has been dealt with.
I don't think the aid programs are working, the massive camps 1 million people displaced through war.

In 1970 as a child we were all supposed to have robot slaves by now.
Tomorrows world was always full of it
Oh that would be the thing that vacuum for me...
A box in the corner than I can talk to and will order for me.
The take away is still cooked by a man in a kitchen.
90% of lorry's still have a man in the cab.
The plain in the sky still has a man sat up front...

If it also means people leave the UK due to the cost of living, the population will go down, and so the strain on social infrastructure will decrease, wages won't go down, but the cost of a house will fall, allowing more people the chance to buy.
If the population descreases, so will the tax take...
EU nurses are already leaving the NHS in droves, so even if the 'strain on social infrastructure' decreases, will be still have the skilled staff to cope? Bear in mind how long it takes to train a nurse...
Wages have stagnated for years and the gig economy has grown. A damaged economy is unlikely to lead to wage increases, so I imagine mortgage lenders would become very risk averse, particularly when lending to unsalaried people on zero hours contracts.

Who are you kidding mummy2017? The above is a thinly veiled creed of a British nationalist. Basically you don't want us to closely cooperate with other European nations, including on defence. You don't want to sacrifice one iota of British sovereignty for the common good of the group of neighbouring nations. You are adept at finding all sorts of ridiculous arguments to support you view of the world. You are the uncurable, and let's hope that ultimately a minority.