The Brexit Arms

[BrexitArmsLandlady]

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Thought I'd dust off the optics & open the bar for the festive period

If any of the the old crowd are still around, then do pop in for a Christmas catch up & join me in toasting the end of the beginning!

Onward! To Brexit!

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While we are discussing the facts related to Brexit rather than the emotion, I have a question.

I did and do have some understanding of the UK, international and EU laws that are related to Brexit and the many layers of challenge for the UK trade, economy, services, law etc. I have, however, learned of many more areas of challenge post the Referendum. I did have a sense that there would be issues, for example, around transport to/from the UK to the EU. It would seem that aviation is adversely affected both to/from the EU but also to other countries - both in terms of rights to fly/landing slots as well as oversight of aircraft maintenance and authorisation of engineers to carry out maintenance.

One of the Brexit changes that the Gov't has announced that took me by surprise was the linking of EURATOM with the EU and that we are to leave EURATOM when we leave the EU. EURATOM is the european wide body that countries sign up to that oversees the movement and safety of nuclear materials - so safe running for everything from nuclear power stations, research labs/institutions to radiotherapy isotopes. This last item is something not produced in the UK but transported here for use in cancer treatment - radiotherapy. As yet there are no announced plans/arrangements to replace EURATOM in the UK. Without an approved UK operator to import and oversee the isotopes the UK cannot import for radiotherapy use. Can anyone shed light on why this decison was taken by the UK Gov't? Did those who voted Leave in the referendum know this would happen? I am interested in views on this UK Gov't decision - is it what should happen? How confident are you that the UK will be ready with an approved replacement for EURATOM memebership by the time Brexit is deemed to happen?

So far Brexit has changed nothing as it has not yet taken place. It has, however, caused much discord in the UK between our population and nothing has been done to draw the disparate views together.

This, I think, is one of the most damaging things and can only weaken the UK's bargaining position. Going into negotiations when the EU is aware that half the population is not supportive of the UK gov's aims seems foolhardy. Huge efforts should have been made to reunite the country. Shouting down 'remoaners' and refusing to even acknowledge the divisions was a hugely stupid move. The time spent since June 2016 would have been better spent coming up with some great ideas, listening and responding to valid concerns about the economy, NI etc., and trying to persuade doubters of the benefits of leaving. Instead, we've had name-calling and meaningless sloganeering (Brexit means Brexit) which has done nothing to convince the 48% that leaving the EU could, in fact, be a good thing for the country.

Mummy the 'no border between NI and RoI' is a stated UK Gov't position so Switzerland, either currently or if they were to vote to withdraw from their agreements with the EU, is not a model that supports the UK Gov't stated position.
Also, what are the Swiss referendum terms? I do not think that just holding a referendum will result in "all the Bilateral are severed as a result."

It's a Guillotine effect, it seems, if they stop Free Movement then all the agreements are cut.

JWIM the thing that Bear won't see is that if there is no deal, as time has run out we have to go to WTO.

No where has it been stated 100% that it won't happen, it is the worse of the worse final out come, but IF it happens then there are things that have to happen.

The WTO demands border.

JWIM Euratom was set up under the Treaties of Rome in 1957. Even though the EU and Euratom are separate legal entities, Article 106a of the Euratom Treaty (considered a ‘bridging provision’) provides that Article 50 TEU also applies to the Euratom Treaty; as a consequence, a state which is no longer part of the EU cannot remain a Member of the Euratom Community.

One of those unintended consequences that should have been foreseen, but wasn’t.

I’m really hoping that the nuclear industry and government officials are beavering away to either agree a separate association with Euratom (as Switzerland does) or they have some other plan in place to maintain regulatory alignment and R&D links.

Leaving Euratom has massive effects on the UK, and hard to mitigate in the event of no plan - for instance, medical isotopes cannot be stockpiled due to short half lives.

Don't worry Dottard D. and BoJo will sort this out for you. They always do.

The WTO demands border.

Which is incompatible with the GFA, an international treaty.

Which is why No Deal won’t happen.

Failing to meet the GFA requirements would constitute a breach of international law.

Mummy, Switzerland had a referendum to stop free movement in 2014, where it was decided that they did want to stop free movement. However, the government realised that this would mean stopping their access to the single market leading to devastating economic results, they came to an agreement with the EU whereby they could give employment preference to Swiss nationals, but did not stop the freedom of movement.

Should the next referendum decide something equally stupid, I expect the Swiss government to find a way to avoid implementing it.

Thanks Agnes

Mummy there will not be a 'no deal' conclusion. The transition/implementation period will just continue - so we continue abide by the EU regs, contribute to the budget (both as now) but have no say in the rule development/setting (what we will lose comared to current EU membership). Possibly for the longterm or until a new settlement is agreed, probably on those terms - UK abides by EU regs, pays, has no say.

Why will 'no deal' not happen? Because the UK Gov't does not want that due to the economic consequences. Because the EU does not want that both because of the UK economic consequences and also, but far less of an impact (see publicly available assessments) for the rest of the EU member states.

They are already preparing for the next EU budget round without the involvement of the UK contribution. I know that there have been comments on this thread about how the EU is planning to run their budget post the UK's exit and that they will suffer the loss of the UK contribution. That, surely, is a matter for the EU and not our problem. However, if it is thought that the loss of UK contribution will make the EU vulnerable and therefore they will be prepared to agree to whatever terms the UK puts forward, not going to happen.

Failing to meet the GFA requirements would constitute a breach of international law.

There are no global police..

Also the courts have said that the fact that the United kingdom was never expected to leave the EU then the GFA would need to take this into account as it was never provided for in the original agreement....

But there are International courts of law. Breaching an International Treaty that the UK was a lead instigator in negotiating to achieve a peace in the RoI and the UK would be a significant event. It would alert current and future treaty partners that the UK does not abide by the agreements it has entered. Is that going to assist our trade negotiators?

What courts have said
"the fact that the United kingdom was never expected to leave the EU then the GFA would need to take this into account as it was never provided for in the original agreement"?

There are no global police.

But there is a Permanent Court of Arbitration (given that the ICJ is excluded).

The UK is not Switzerland with its burgeoning tax evasion and money laundering businesses and a society so rich, they have budget surpluses at ca. 10% tax rates. Here we have to tax people at 45% just to barely keep things together. We can't take any hits to the economy and unfortunately a big one is coming. Onwards to the sunlit uplands.

The world is changing,
The EU is no as dominant as it was.
It's share of the World trade is decreasing, this is a truth.
Being so insular in your thinking is a form of protectionism.

As their share decreases also so does their influence, why do you think they are trying for new trade deals?

The EU is a lot smaller than you think.

And if we show that we break our international agreements, how are we going to make beneficial treaties with the countries whose share of World trade is increasing (China & India)?

How are we going to make beneficial treaties with them anyway, as a small country with a small market whose main export (services) will not be wanted?

mummmy you continue to see the situation from an idealistic position.

It’s all fluffy clouds and rainbows in your view.

The facts of the situation mean, whatever you think might be possible, is not actually possible in practise.

This isn’t an emotive vote by people who don’t have to deal with the consequences, anymore, the next steps have to balance competing and incompatible priorities.

If you continue your aspirational hopes I’m pretty certain you are going to be sadly disappointed in what Brexit delivers for you.

Mummy, according to your chart, the EU economy has been growing nicely thank you very much, and it even states that it added another 44 economies to the figures during it's progress! Are you suggesting that we form a trading bloc with China?

The Leave arguments are so ridiculous. "China is growing so to celebrate this let's decimate our economy by severing ties with our main and closest trading partner and start from scratch hoping for a miraculous trade deals with countries we oppressed before. Surely they will kindly give us what we want."

The courts have said the agreement would need to take into account the fact the UK was never expected to leave the EU,
You had me for a while, but now I can see your just so ridge in your views that you can't foresee how anything can ever be changed to accommodate the break-up.
Even Macron has agreed that there could be a no deal, but you know better...

The courts have said the agreement would need to take into account the fact the UK was never expected to leave the EU,

Which courts? Link to the applicable judgment?

BTW anyone else can't take this hopeless moron BoJo anymore? He is going to kill the UK economy off and build a bridge to France now...

It's unwise to take graphs (as posted at 10:55:30) at face value without thinking of the context.
The EU economy has been growing steadily from an already high base. Much of the rest of the world has been growing from a very low base, hence faster.

Really what the graph tells us is that the world economy is growing, as would be expected with a rising population.

www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/01/05/the-brexit-options-explained/

Have you read this, Norway or No way.