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The Brexit Arms

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BrexitArmsLandlady · 08/12/2017 21:45

🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧

Thought I'd dust off the optics & open the bar for the festive period Xmas Smile

If any of the the old crowd are still around, then do pop in for a Christmas catch up & join me in toasting the end of the beginning!

Onward! To Brexit!

🍷 🥃 🍸 🍹 🍾 🥂 🍻 🍺 Gin

OP posts:
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17
mummmy2017 · 18/01/2018 17:27

I have decided to simply wait and see which way it all happens, as we are all as clueless as each other in this matter as none of us work in Whitehall.. or Westminster.

JWIM · 18/01/2018 17:45

I don't feel clueless. Granted I do not work in any of the political spheres that have a direct involvement in the Brexit discussions. However, I do understand some of the ramifications of the referendum decision. Nothing I have stated with regard to the Good Friday Agreement or WTO requirements for third countries, or the unclear status of the UK as an independent entity within the WTO has changed since before the referendum. All the difficulties in negotiating a successful (?how you define that) brexit that have been highlighted on this and many other MN threads, other fora, some media were known, as were the likely economic and political outcomes for the UK when Brexit is deemed to have happened.
Is any of what you have learned since the referendum giving you pause for thought?

mummmy2017 · 18/01/2018 18:03

But there are still so many variables, each time you read something , there is the oppersite view somewhere else.
The Vote last night was going to be a defeat for the government and a pivotal moment in stopping Brexit, yet now it seems there was no defeat.

I have read a people have written on here and yes I do understand we reached an agreement to bring an end to violence in Ireland, and the talk of not making one side different to the other, but I also know that there could still be a no deal, it's there as a possibility.

If we don't get something sorted on the finance side, does that not make it impossible to reach and agreement, there is so much unknown in all this. Not one of us know fore sure, we may hope or think this or that could happen, be we don't yet know it will happen.

Bearbehind · 18/01/2018 18:12

but I also know that there could still be a no deal, it's there as a possibility.

I know this is pointless but I'll try one last time.

How do you know this is still a possibility mummmy?

It is incompatible with what we've already agreed.

We cannot revert to a hard border, we cannot treat NI differently to the rest of the UK, Ireland aren't going to leave the EU to suit us therefore we cannot leave the SM however we dress it up.

The only reason this fiasco is being so drawn out is we haven't even woken up to the reality that the EU aren't going to let us have our cake and eat.

We're still negioting under the illusion they'll just cave in and let us carry on as we're were, just without contributions and immigration.

I'm happy to to proved wrong but that requires actual scenarios, not, it'll all get sorted by someone.

mummmy2017 · 18/01/2018 18:22

BECAUSE IF THERE IS NO DEAL..
There will be no deal.

It could be voted out by the EU27..
NO deal...

Bearbehind · 18/01/2018 18:23

Dear God, which part of 'we cannot afford to get to a situation where there is no deal' do you not understand?

Bearbehind · 18/01/2018 18:26

We are going to have to accept the terms for SM access that we are offered, whatever they may be.

twofingerstoEverything · 18/01/2018 18:26

Could I ask a Leaver, who did not vote leave because of immigration, what they make of this video on BBC 5 Live?
How do you feel about someone who worked for the NHS for many years, who has paid tax and worked hard in an understaffed profession, being made so unwelcome that they feel they have no choice but to leave the UK? Would any Leaver be willing to respond?

mummmy2017 · 18/01/2018 18:27

You and I can't agree can we. can we Bear,

That;s just 2 of us, now add another 26 voice's into the mix.

We need a deal on Financial Services, or it's not going to work, and your saying that's not going to happen.
SM May and Corbyn don't want it...
The Fishing rights,,,
Why is it so hard to see just how hard this will be.
You say the UK want their cake and to eat it..
The EU will say no.
NO deal

Moussemoose · 18/01/2018 18:28

Just as a matter of interest Bear what do you think is the likeliest scenario?

Assuming we do not have another referendum and Brexit is being forced through how do you think it will play out and what will the implications be, in regards to NI and the SM.

Clearly all conjecture but interesting theoretically.

mummmy2017 · 18/01/2018 18:28

No Bear we don't have to accept the crumbs feed to us from the EU.
You just think we do.

Bearbehind · 18/01/2018 18:31

We need a deal on Financial Services, or it's not going to work, and your saying that's not going to happen

There is a perfect example.

We need a deal on financial services.

We cannot contemplate a situation where we lose all financial passporting rights therefore we will have to agree to the EU's terms, whatever they may be.

Walking away with no deal doesn't solve the problem of having no passporting rights, it just brings the threat to fruition so it will never happen.

OliviaD68 · 18/01/2018 18:35

@Moussemoose

No deal ...

Shall we add aviation or is that too complicated?

Nuclear?

Bearbehind · 18/01/2018 18:36

mousse I think we are going to retain pretty much all the terms we have now wrt SM/CU.

We'll need to pay a significant premium for that and have to abide by all the rules with no say in their creation but it will be badged that we've left.

We'll continue with the bravado that it's only for a 'transition period' but it's likely to reach double figures in years.

During that time businesses, particularly banks will gradually move their operations to other EU countries to avoid any repercussions so we'll reach the point where we are pretty much begging to go back.

That's my thoughts anyway Grin

mummmy2017 · 18/01/2018 18:42

I will say this again,
When all the shouting between DD and MB is done and there is a deal on the table, one both sides agree too,,,,
THEN and only then does it go before the EU27.
At this point they have agreed nothing.

There may have been back room deals but....
IF 20 of the EU27 can't accept the deal ... it's OFF.

This has nothing to do with us accepting this that or the other.

We are out of the SM.
DO you understand this....

Bearbehind · 18/01/2018 18:46

No. Don't understand that because it cannot happen.

It is in the EU's interest for us to effectively stay on the same terms so they'll agree it.

We cannot leave the SM because we cannot have a hard border and have no infrastructure for anything else.

The EU know we've backed ourselves into a corner with the pledge on no hard border and full alignment with SM rules.

They know it's just a matter of time before we concede we effectively have to remain in the SM.

The only concession will be it will have a new name.

AgnesSkinner · 18/01/2018 18:48

Brexit In Name Only ...

Bearbehind · 18/01/2018 18:49

Just as an aside, where has your figure of 20 out of 27 countries needing to agree the terms come from?

OliviaD68 · 18/01/2018 18:50

The real number is 35 need to agree ... sub parliaments like in Belgium.

AgnesSkinner · 18/01/2018 18:52

Bear the withdrawal deal can be agreed by 20 out of the EU 27 as long as they represent 65% of the EU population.

Bearbehind · 18/01/2018 18:55

Thanks agnes. I thought they all had the power of veto.

That makes it even more likely they'll reach an agreeement.

AgnesSkinner · 18/01/2018 18:57

Apparently no country has a veto on the final withdrawal treaty:

fullfact.org/europe/eu-veto-brexit-deal/

AgnesSkinner · 18/01/2018 18:59

I would think that Barnier’s team are well briefed enough to know what would be acceptable - everything hammered out behind the scenes before it gets to a formal vote.

Bearbehind · 18/01/2018 18:59

Unless I'm reading that incorrectly, the terms of any new deal have to be unanimously agreed, it's just the divorce that doesn't need full agreement.

Moussemoose · 18/01/2018 19:00

So Brexit it name only. There is a deal we have to pay to be in the same position but with no influence on decisions.

EU will agree.

Pro Brexit supporters will cheer our freedom while ignoring the fact we pay anyway but have lost any power we had. The long slow decline of Britain continues.

That is a depressingly realistic scenario.