The Brexit Arms

[BrexitArmsLandlady]

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Thought I'd dust off the optics & open the bar for the festive period

If any of the the old crowd are still around, then do pop in for a Christmas catch up & join me in toasting the end of the beginning!

Onward! To Brexit!

🍷 🥃 🍸 🍹 🍾 🥂 🍻 🍺

Most favoured nation status simply means that you cannot treat one country differently on an aspect of trade than another.

So if the UK signed a free trade deal with the EU which included services such as financial services and so-called financial passporting, then it would also have to offer this to Canada which does not currently enjoy access to financial services through CETA.

Fair play olivia you've got more patience than me.

At this stage, on these threads, we really should be able to have more advanced conversations than this.

Yes. We should.

You've been way more patient than I with mummmy who will go nowhere.

But when someone comes on who genuinely doesn't know and asks questions it's only fair we try to help.

True.

I'm giving up with mummmy. The lottery ticket analogy was the last straw!

@Doubletrouble99

Another thing.

The SM is not a trade deal. It is a market. With rules.

Which allows the UK to drive over the bridge with the motorway provided it follows the rules.

Double if the UK did not have a physical border with another EU Member State (RoI) then there could be the possibility of a trade agreement. But we do, so the rest of the post is to help explain Trade Agreements.

It would not be, as you correctly note, as good for the UK as membership of the EU Single Market. Trade Agreements mainly cover trade in goods and not services. The UK is predominantly a services economy so no special rules to govern the new UK EU member states trade in services.
Some, but not all, trade agreements contain a clause 'Most Favoured Nation' (MFN). So if the EU were to negotiate a better set of terms with, say, Foreign State A than Canada (with a MFN clause), then Canada can require the EU to improve the terms of their trade agreement to match those negotiated with Foreign State A. So Canada and Foreign State A trade with the EU on the same terms.
In trade agreements there is a border (whether a land or sea border does not matter) between the two negotiating parties.

Sorry, pp were much clearer and swifter to reply.

Trade negotiations are ferociously complex. The SM simplified the process to the benefit of all EU nations. The EU has many experienced and skilled trade negotiators. EU negotiators are obviously going to get the best deal for the EU - it's their job.

We are now relying on a few negotiators (who probably support the EU anyway) to negotiate 'something' they have little political guidance and an unknown end game. They are against a focused, skilled experienced team.

We chose to put ourselves in this position and many pro Brexit supporters are angry with the EU for protecting it's members.

@Moussemoose

Quite. How dare they protect themselves? They should let us run roughshod over them.

Why? Because JRM and Boris said so.

So what is DD talking about when he says he wants Canada +++?

Canada +++ would include services.

Not going to happen.

Double, go on the premise that DD hasn't the first clue what he's talking about, and you won't go far wrong. Even TM has replaced him in negotiations now!

And, of course, BoJo is in favour of the Single Market when he's not trying to further his own political aims...

@AgnesSkinner

Should we explain why the EU won't allow a FTA with services - eg CANADA +++? Is it

A) the EU is being mean?
B) MFN clauses?
C) preserving the integrity of the Single Market?
D) something else?

Hmmmm ...

(B) is explained in WTO rules and in the EU’s FTAs

(C) is clearly outlined in the EU’s negotiating position papers

(D) It’s the have cake and eat it scenario, cherry picking what we want (free trade of goods and services) and leaving out what we (allegedly) don’t want (free movement of workers)

But then (A) is a much easier narrative for the right wing press and arch Brexiteers to sell to the British public.

@AgnesSkinner

That aligns with my understanding of the facts for B and C and my view for A and D.

@AgnesSkinner

So we're all clear what does "integrity of the Single Market" mean?

Olivia I understand what “integrity of the single market means”, but I think those (Davis, Fox, Johnson, Redwood et al ) who are constantly peddling this idea of getting an equivalent (or better) trade deal outwith the EU but without any of the associated costs are either deluded or wilfully disingenuous, or a mixture of both.

I agree with your sentiment.

But I'm not sure everyone agrees on what preserving the integrity means.

To me it means ensuring market participants all play by the same rules. Thus keeping others out who don't or won't play by such rules is important. Accepting the UK as a market participant when the UK has stated it wants to diverge from the market rules would therefore breach the market's integrity.

What rules? Name a topic and it's likely covered.

Have I got this about right?

You hang on in there Bear.

Live on your shout everyone down cloud, because you can't see how you could be wrong.
Brexit proves there will be changes...
May knows she can't just roll over, even the wording from the French Twit proves they know it MIGHT not happen, but see that you have to hear the bit's he said that don't fit into your world.
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
Switzerland... why?

Olivia I view the integrity of the SM being dependent upon the participating countries being prevented from creating special advantages for themselves - eg through deviating regulations, restrictions on free movement, or differential customs arrangements with third parties.

Given this is what the UK seems to be aiming for it’s little wonder the EU is holding firm.

Mummy
So far Brexit has changed nothing as it has not yet taken place. It has, however, caused much discord in the UK between our population and nothing has been done to draw the disparate views together.

Our Prime Minister has made several 'red line' statements/speeches. However, saying something does not necessarily mean it will happen. The Gov't has yet to settle on a position for the UK 'post Brexit' between the cabinet.

It is possible to see what the laws we abide by say with regard to International Treaties. It is possible to see what the WTO rules say. It is possible to identify contradictory positions held by the UK Gov't.
It is possible to see that current EU trade agreements with other countries, that the UK currently benefits from as an EU member, will not automatically be available to the UK to apply post Brexit because (a) the EU would have to confer that right to the UK and (b) the EU trade agreements are with individual sovereign states who may not want to operate the same trade agreement terms with a small state such as the UK.

Switzerland? Explain please. Do you want the UK to have the same relationship with the EU as Switzerland? How does that resolve the NI/RoI border - UK Gov't states that there will be no border between NI and the RoI - between the UK and the EU - when Brexit is deemed to have taken place?
I can vouch for the existence of border posts between Switzerland and the EU, having sat in the queues to enter /exit Switzerland last Summer, and the queues for lorries was considerably longer/slower than that for passenger cars.
So many challenges.

@mummmy2017

Whatever.

So much frothing in the sun et al over the bayeaux tapestry! 😁

Worth noting that king Harolds mother was a Danish Viking....

Switzerland..
At the same time as we voted, the Swiss decided to withdraw their request to join the EU, this had been pending for a long time.
The Swiss have rejected the request to take immigrants and have instead agreed instead to an employment agreement.
Now they have given permission for the a free movement initiative July 16th 2019 to get the required 100,000 signatures to push it to a referendum.
This will mean all the Bilateral are severed as a result.

So why would the Swiss do this as according to you being out of the SM is suicide, so do the Swiss know something you don't?