The Brexit Arms

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Thought I'd dust off the optics & open the bar for the festive period

If any of the the old crowd are still around, then do pop in for a Christmas catch up & join me in toasting the end of the beginning!

Onward! To Brexit!

🍷 🥃 🍸 🍹 🍾 🥂 🍻 🍺

I was a bit about the No deal minister but nothing would surprise me!

Leavers are still under the illusion that UK holds all the cards...

The problem you all fail to understand is that it's all very well to do all this talk, but one day soon it has to go to Brussels, and 27 countries have to have a say on it.
If enough say no sod of we don't like this deal, then that's it WTO.
Each country will have it's own agenda, needs wants dislikes.
Ireland may well be the reason we don't get a deal.
Spain recon they have a veto over Gibraltar.
Fishing , now that is as big as the border.

Then how many will say we are not paying enough and disagree over that.

Leavers are still under the illusion that UK holds all the cards...

We hold some of the cards , but so do 27 other's in the EU..

This is not just 2 sided

mummy, that is why UK will fold as it holds no cards and cannot afford to be left out in the cold.

The EU27 have been very united. Keep hoping for that domino effect...

Keep hoping Ghost
Just like we would never vote leave.
No one EVER thinks we could got to WTO.

mummy You can't begin to answer how can we commit to having no border and revert WTO rules because the 2 things are incompatible.

You can huff and puff all you like about the nasty EU but the fact is we've completely fucked this up all by ourselves.

And the fact people like you continue to believe it will all be rosy despite have absolutely no clue how, it what is prolonging this epic fuck up.

No one EVER thinks we could got to WTO.

This sort of leaver logic is detached from reality.

Give over Bearbehind,
People are willing to bear the pain to be free of the EU,
Don't kid yourself on us being blind and all the rosy talk.
And the PM is worried enough about the Leave voters to not be able to back down.
Maybe people outside of MN have different views to you,
After all you did tell me this was a little click of like minded people...
Clicks are generally small groups, not the masses.

Just like we would never vote leave.
No one EVER thinks we could got to WTO.

The difference is the Leave vote was emotive and not necessarily based on facts in all cases; it was a lashing out at things which had nothing to do with the EU.

Reverting to WTO rules has to be based on facts and those are incompatible with no border in NI.

Cliques, love, cliques!

^People are willing to bear the pain to be free of the EU,*

Given one of the main leave arguments was that it would help the poor I'm wondering how this group of people feel about a devalued pound and higher food prices..WTO slaps tariffs on goods people will soon forget the patriotism when they can;t pay the bills.

And the PM is worried enough about the Leave voters to not be able to back down.

The PM is in thrall to the tabloid editors and a handful of Tory eurosceptics (just like Major and Cameron). Thats not democracy.

You can't say 100% that there is no way that the WTO won't happen.
The reason we would go to the WTO is because there was no agreement to use.

Your so sure that it can't happen, but isn't that you looking through rose colour glasses and simply seeing things the way you wish, and not accepting this agreement still have a million ways it can be derailed.

Look at Canada, and the Trade agreement, and that was simple compare to this...

mummy which part of no border in NI and WTO rules not being compatible do you not understand?

The 2 things cannot happen.

if you have an answer that doesn't rely on crossing your fingers then please tell us.

Bearbehind if we can't get a deal, then it has to be WTO,
Your No border would then have to be worked out.
Sorry you fail to see this , but the needs of the many... thing may apply.

Hands rattle back.

The reason we would go to the WTO is because there was no agreement to use.

Government aren't particularly bright, but I doubt they are that stupid as to crash out.

look at Canada, and the Trade agreement, and that was simple compare to this...

UK gov spent 18 months after referendum doing nothing

mummy, that's the whole point, we can't and won't get to a situation where there is no deal because we can't have a border in NI.

You can hand as many rattles out as you like. The fact is your naivety and lack of understanding is embarrassing you and your fellow Leavers.

TM threw the WTO cards down the day she pledged there will not be a hard border and we will remain 'fully aligned' the the SM.

Sorry you fail to see this , but the needs of the many... thing may apply.

Yeah like the majority in NI wanting to remain and nobody (UK, Ireland or EU) wanting a return to violence.

IF there is a SM deal.
IF there is no deal then it won't happen.
How can you fail to see this.
It could be the EU27 who decide there will be no deal.
Then what do we do dance around pulling our hair out..
Oh no we go to WTO....

So there is a border of the EU's making in Ireland.
and Ireland needs to rethink its options....
You can shout at me as much as you life, this STILL is an option, the fact it's no one you want or like won't count for much...

Given that neither side wants a no deal, there will be extension after extension of the "transition" period. Until such a time as an agreement is reached, or sanity returns. The chances of WTO are, rightfully, insignificant.

I just wanted to make a point about the ‘Nobody has a crystal ball’ argument.
Well, no, they don’t but we generally get by in life by weighing up probabilities.
There is a graph that GPs have that can fairly accurately predict someone’s probability of having a heart attack or stroke in the next 10 years.
It looks at their family history, sex, age whether they smoke, their BMI, cholesterol levels, diabetes, blood pressure, activity levels and diet.
There is basically an algorithm and by feeding in the various risk factors, you can come out with a pretty accurate assessment of the likelihood of that person having a stroke or heart attack in the next 5 years.
This is how life Insurance companies work out their premiums.
You can never say to an individual ‘You will have a heart attack in the next 5 years but you can say that somebody in that demographic group has a 10% chance of having a heart attack in the next 5 years but they can reduce that risk if they stop smoking, lose weight or take more exercise. There will always be non smoking teetotal fitness fanatics who drop dead in their 30’s and morbidiy obese alcoholic chain smokers who live on bacon sandwiches and never leave the sofa who live to be 105 but that doesn’t change the underlying principle.
It’s possible that we may wake up tomorrow and find that we have been taken over by aliens from Planet Zog. But how likely is it? What is the evidence that that is likely to happen?
No, nobody has a crystal ball but we can all see that certain actions are more or less likely to lead to particularly outcomes than others.
And there is a mounting mass of evidence about the harm that a hard Brexit could do.
Of course it could be wrong but I personally don’t see why anyone wants to take that risk.

FFS, there will never be a border of the EU's making because Ireland would veto it.

We will never impose a border because it breaches the GFA.

Therefore we will never revert to WTO.

That's why this whole shambles is a fuck up; it's aims are incompatible.

We'll end up paying for similar access to that which we have now and it will have been for nothing.

So there is a border of the EU's making in Ireland.

Nope don't try to shift the blame for this clusterfuck, this belongs to the UK. Its almost as if Britain didn't partition Ireland in the first place!

and Ireland needs to rethink its options....

Ireland will not leave the EU if that is what you are alluding to. Support for membership is at nearly 90%. A domino certain not to fall...

May doesn't want a hard border, has said she won't impose one.
So just who do you think will make a boarder?
The tooth fairy.