The Brexit Arms

[BrexitArmsLandlady]

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Thought I'd dust off the optics & open the bar for the festive period

If any of the the old crowd are still around, then do pop in for a Christmas catch up & join me in toasting the end of the beginning!

Onward! To Brexit!

🍷 🥃 🍸 🍹 🍾 🥂 🍻 🍺

An Assessment of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU27

www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/595374/IPOL_STU(2017)595374_EN.pdf

You might find page 18 helpful:

With the UK’s withdrawal, the EU is likely to face a €9 billion ‘hole’ in its annual budget, being the estimated amount of the UK’s net contributions at the present time (the precise amounts vary from year to year)9. If the EU demands a contribution as a condition for a CFTA, one reference amount would be the contribution that Norway makes, scaled up for the size of the UK economy. This gives about €3.5 billion, which might be considered the outer limit or beyond for the UK, since it will not be a member of the single market like Norway in the European Economic Area.

If on the other hand there is no CFTA, and the UK has simply a WTO-based relationship with the EU, then the EU budget would receive additional tariff revenues, estimated at roughly €4.5 billion10. Interestingly this amount is not so different from the ‘Norway-based’ calculation above. So in both cases the EU would recuperate around a third to half of its loss of UK contributions.

muumy you can bang the drum as much as you like saying the EU are shit scared of us leaving but you have to acknowledge at some point we need answers.

How do you foresee us reconciling the 'full alignment' with the SM and CU if we are no longer in it?

On the face of it there is no way that can work unless we actually remain in all but name and continue to pay into the EU pot.

So even if you're right about them not wanting to lose our contributions, you have to accept it's not looking likely either way because we are going to end up paying for unrestricted access to our closest trading neighbours.

Mummy - why are you so worried about what the EU is going to do? Why are you not at all worried about what the UK is going to do when it's revenue drops by 15% or whatever the amount will be come Brexit?

I don't get why you are more interested in what the EU is going to do when we won't be a member? It seems bizarre for a Brexiteer to be worrying about how another country, or bloc in this case, is going to manage, but not about their own country!

*@FaithHopeCharityDesperation

Is English your first language?*

*How does 'far from dumb' translate in your view or language? Please explain how this is disablist?

Perhaps you can then explain to us how black is white and white is black?*

🙄

Yes it is my first language - why do you ask?

You have called me 'dumb' before, you have used that word to describe others too.

'Dumb' is an offensive & thankfully outdated disablist term.

Re the black/white thing - I have no idea what you're talking about.

Bearbehind, I do think we need to sort things out, but up till now the EU has constantly told the UK that we need to provide all the how to do X Y and Z.

This means it's impossible to negotiate, as both side refuse to show their hand.

Paying , yes that seems to be the EU norm, That's blackmail, not a trade deal... Just how much do the US pay the EU.

@FaithHopeCharityDesperation

OMG I can't believe I'm having to spell this out. And English is not my first language but is purportedly yours.

What does 'he is far from dumb though' mean?

Does it mean:
A) Farage is dumb
B) Farage is smart?

I really couldn't give a flying fuck if you think Farage is clever or not.

'Dumb', however, is not a word that belongs in the lexicon of an adult in 21st century Britain.

Worried about the EU Budget, no trying to get you too see, that the EU are living beyond their means, and so will demand more from the members, the same people who will be losing income from the UK.

The EU are not a country, they are simply a group of representatives for the other 27... but your acting like these countries don't have a say, they must bow down, and shut up, this isn't true.

This has a massive knock on effect to how and what the 27 need from a deal, and you ignore this.

There will be countries who are willing to trade with the UK once we are out of the EU, but your so sure it's all doom and gloom, the same doom and gloom MR Osborn said would arrive the day after the vote can in, how's that working for you right now.

This means it's impossible to negotiate, as both side refuse to show their hand.

It staggers me that Leavers are still clinging on to this sentiment.

The EU have been very explicit in what they want.

The fact it's doesn't allow for cake and eating it is the only reason we can't move on.

The sooner you all accept leaving the EU will come at a huge price and leaving the SM/CU actually can't be reconciled with the NI situation, the sooner we can get some answers.

faith I do think you are being professionally offended by the word 'dumb' in the context it was used.

It wouldn't occur to me, or many others I'm sure, that is is disabilist.

Mummy, your posts really aren't making sense!

You're worried about the EU budget because we're not going to be paying into it, and yet you don't want us to be paying into it!

You are saying this will cause problems for people that you don't want us to be in a bloc with, but can't explain how it's any of your business if we're not in the bloc. As you say, the EU countries do have a say (because the EU is very democratic), so they don't have to approve it if they don't want to. We don't get a say, because we will be out of it. What the EU need from a deal is up to the EU to sort out, personally I'm more worried about what we need from a deal particularly as the idiots running the negotiations don't seem to have a fucking clue

So, what are all these countries who are just chomping at the bit to do a deal with us. It's not the US. It's not China. It's not India...

Olivia you started the Dumb thing, and at no point did anyone say they didn't know what the word means, and in fact your just making yourself look stupid.... which means the same as dumb in this context.

Or do you mean he isn't dumb as in he speaks a lot. so has the use of words...

Olivia, I wouldn't worry about Faith. She's patently realised that she has no answers (or at least realises that the answers don't say what she wanted them to), and so is trying to deflect by playing the professionally offended card. I'm not sure if she thinks it makes her look clever or something, it just makes her look pathetic, however.

Oh, and now Mummy's joining in...

WE DON'T PAY AS NOT IN EU

EU IN TROUBLE > LESS INCOME.
EU MEMBERS PAY MORE..
EU MEMBER UNHAPPY.

The knock on effect of this is that the TRADE deal we are trying to negotiate is with as you say IDIOTS who don't have a clue.

Very telling you crossed it out....lol

PMSL mummy, that is an extraordinary train of thought!

Quote astounding that you've gone to such lengths to make excuses for our lack of progress.

I guess it's slightly comforting that, as expected, everything is always going to be the fault of the EU.

*faith I do think you are being professionally offended by the word 'dumb' in the context it was used.

It wouldn't occur to me, or many others I'm sure, that is is disabilist.*

It may not, which is why I politely asked the poster not to use it (she has used it previously too, hence my thinking she didn't realise its connotations).

Said poster however decided to respond directly & got a tad disgruntled with me, which then led me to explain further.

I am not 'professionally offended' at all - just pointing out that it is an outdated & offensive word.

She is obviously free to use whatever words she wants though.

playing the professionally offended card

🙄

So glad you agree with me Bear-behind, that the only reason we left was because it was the EU's fault.

Maybe your finally seeing why the Leavers voted on mass.

Now maybe we can look forward and make our own way in the world, as we have only had EU rule for 40 , and manage to rule rather a lot the world, and parlay this into the Commonwealth, without their help.

I suspect Australia and New Zealand will be busy negotiating their trade deals with the EU for a good few years to come. The UK will have to wait its turn.

mummmy I am a total grammar/spelling pedant but deliberately make a point of not pointing out errors as I recognise it’s my problem to deal with.
Unless people are being completely ridiculous.
So, with that in mind, I just wanted to point out that it’s ‘en masse’, not ‘on mass’.

You’re welcome.

"Now maybe we can look forward and make our own way in the world, as we have only had EU rule for 40 , and manage to rule rather a lot the world, and parlay this into the Commonwealth, without their help."

Oh dear, do you really think that we're somehow going to come up with Empire 2.0?

That's beyond deluded!

CardinalSin, so glad your think Empire 2 is beyond deluded as any same person would also think this...

However do trade deals with other non EU countries, now that's a good idea wonder if May has thought of that, maybe we should call and tell her about your great idea...

Your really getting this Leave idea now, keep going....

So, which countries are these who are going to prioritise a trade deal with us as opposed to, say, one with the EU?

Who the heck said Prioritise.
So accord to you .. No one will trade with us EVER...
Get real Cardinalsin.