The Brexit Arms

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Thought I'd dust off the optics & open the bar for the festive period

If any of the the old crowd are still around, then do pop in for a Christmas catch up & join me in toasting the end of the beginning!

Onward! To Brexit!

🍷 🥃 🍸 🍹 🍾 🥂 🍻 🍺

surfer, your comments are quite ironic given the margin between Le Pen and Macron v Leave and Remain.

Seems that saying results are what you want them to be is the order of the day today.

If Le Pen's near miss is all you think it is, surely you have to acknowledge Leave do no have the resounding mandate you think they have.

What?

Now I know why I don’t post much on here anymore - it’s like talking to 5 year olds.

Remind me just what % do we provide.

Could you lose that much income and the increase your out goings to more than you have...

Is so how, do explain.

@surferjet

Get your facts straight. Macron best LePen by 66% to 34%. Skinny margin huh?

I agree with @Bearbehind this then must imply that the Brexit vote is effectively evens per your definition.

Its like talking to 5 year olds

I agree with the sentiment yet I suspect, for different reasons.

What is difficult to understand?

@mummmy2017

I believe the UK's net contribution to the EU budget is some 0.5% of GDP or 1% of U.K. budget contributions.

I don't understand your questions. But I'll take a guess what you're asking.

The question one should ask oneself is the impact of leaving the EU on the UK economy vs the £10bn or so we contribute.

What would raising trade barriers with every country (by definition we would go on WTO with the ROW and some Canada type goods deal with the EU) do to the U.K. economy?

What would an inability to sell financial and other services do to our GDP and tax collections?

How badly would reduced immigration or even met emigration affect the UK GDP?

How much would it cost to replicate the institutions that we currently share with the other EU countries?

You don't need a ton of PhDs to come up with an answer.

OliviaD68
You’re not understanding.
I’ll try & explain it in simple terms.
It’s like say The Wimbledon final ( tennis yes? ) the two players who make it through to the final have beaten off all other competition, they’ve done brilliantly well just to make the final - especially if it’s the first final they’ve made in years - only one can win of course, but the one who loses is ‘runner up’ I guess you could say.
Maybe google LePen & what she had to achieve to make it through to the last round.
But in the meantime, here are a few facts about France.

Capital - Paris.
Flag - 🇫🇷
Currency - Euros.

@surferjet

And you are clearly not 'understanding' the subtleties of the French system. Because it is a series of elections people often vote tactically or to make a political point in early rounds.

The centre and the left were split/weak allowing Le Pen to squeeze through. As soon as the vote mattered she was soundly beaten. That is not to say she doesn't have a hard core of support, but then so does Trump. She is not, by a long, long way the second most popular figure in French politics.

A similar (ish) thing happened against Chirac (I can't remember the year) many on the left voted for the crook rather than Le Pen.

Clear enough?

@surferjet

Yes, love ... I voted for Macron.

The Wimbledon final is not a valid comparison. The candidates were mostly weak in the French election. Hardly the case in the premier tennis tournament on the planet. Melenchon, Fillon, Hamon had nothing to offer. LePen was good at rabble rousing as are most demagogues.

I listened to her debate with Macron, heard interviews and also heard her speak.

Completely clueless about how economies work. Even confused a privately owned telecoms business with a public good. Rank incompetence comes to mind.

But it sounds as though you like and respect Ms LePen. Would you like to share your enthusiasm with the rest of us? Educate us on why she might have been such a good choice for the presidential quinquennat ?

You can argue it anyway you like, but the fact is she made it through.
& so what? As long as these right wing parties are legal what’s the problem? Just because you don’t agree with them doesn’t mean they’re wrong.

& Ironically, while leftie women are obsessed with right wing politics & virtue signalling all over the place, labour are eradicating your ( & my ) very existence.

You couldn’t make it up.

@surferjet

As long as these right wing parties are legal what’s the problem? Just because you don’t agree with them doesn’t mean they’re wrong.

Hitler's party was legal. But hey, not a problem. Nazism was not wrong? So it won't surprise you that I take MASSIVE exception with this casual statement.

I'm actually not left wing. I'm centre right. Both extremes are clueless about economics so it does matter that the country choose either one.

But I would take Corbyn and his idiotic Marxist policies all day long over Brexit. Corbyn's asinine policies are reversible; Brexshit is not.

I fail to see why you are asking what the problem is about Le Pen making it through? I dislike her policies but her party is legal - if abhorrent- did anyone say should be stopped from standing?

I am a 'leftie' woman and do have issues with some of the Labour parties policies but I am able to agree with someone on some things and not on others.

Voting for one party does not mean you support the every utterance of its leader. I voted to remain but can still see the EU needs reform. Remaining in the EU would raise issues and problems but I believe they are not as significant and would not be as long lasting as leaving the EU.

Sorry if confusing statement.
The EU are losing an income from the UK...
The EU are intending to INCREASE their expenditure...
In a normal environment you don't increase your outgoings.. if your incomes are decreasing...

The EU27 are already unhappy about having to cover the hole in the budget, now it's been said that, not only will they have to cover the amount. but the budget is going to rise and the amount needed will need to rise...

@mummmy2017

Under the assumption that we are leaving, why in the world do you care?

If we end up not leaving I believe we can block the budget increase if we don't like it.

Simples.

@mummmy2017

A pie chart for you. Find the EU. This must be relative to GDP.

Actually can't be relative to GDP so must be budget. Sorry.

I just think it proves that in leaving we have made the right decision.
The EU are so gun hoe about money and spending it.
They don't seem to care that any increase has to come from the ones who are doing well, so they are punished for doing well, to support the poorer countries. if some of the Vanity projects and the waste of money on over egging the wages claimed was sorted then it wouldn't be the out of control money monster it has been allowed to morph into.
Other Countries do see this as well, and I think soon someone else will want to leave, and prove the leavers did the right thing, even if it wasn't believed at the time.

If you lose 15% of your budget. you cut your costs.
You don't increase them and expect everyone else to cover them...

As I said no normal sane person loses 15% of their income and increase their expenditure at the same time...
But the EU do..

They don't seem to care that any increase has to come from the ones who are doing well, so they are punished for doing well, to support the poorer countries.

Nobody is being punished. Helping poorer countries benefits us all. You'd have less economic migrants - something for Brexiteers to cheer about surely?

if some of the Vanity projects and the waste of money on over egging the wages claimed was sorted then it wouldn't be the out of control money monster it has been allowed to morph into.

Vanity projects you say? Like the olympic stadium? HS2? London Garden Bridge?

www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/west-ham-united-london-stadium-olympic-stadium-business-rates-taxpayer-a7747346.html

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/aug/14/london-garden-bridge-project-scrapped-sadiq-khan

I see also Leave poster boy in trouble over spending;

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-hit-35000-fine-11842514

Other Countries do see this as well, and I think soon someone else will want to leave, and prove the leavers did the right thing, even if it wasn't believed at the time.

Ah yes, the Brexit domino effect. Nearly 2 years waiting for a fall. Leavers clutching at straws.

They don't seem to care that any increase has to come from the ones who are doing well, so they are punished for doing well, to support the poorer countries.
Isn't the whole point to support the poorer countries to grow? Ireland being a case in point.

Ah yes, the good old Brexit domino effect...

@mummmy2017

You're missing second and third order effects ... impact on GDP and tax collections.

Never mind. It's not going to sink in.

Don't think we'll ever know.

Seems Boris is doing an about face now. Claims a soft Brexit makes no sense and we should stay in. He knows a no deal scenario just ain't gonna happen.

Fromage and Boris in the space of a few days.

Either something is afoot - some clever plan - or Brexit is unraveling faster than I believed possible and the public school boys are taking cover.

Why has Fromage started wearing that stupid hat? He looks more ridiculous than ever.