The Brexit Arms

[BrexitArmsLandlady]

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Thought I'd dust off the optics & open the bar for the festive period

If any of the the old crowd are still around, then do pop in for a Christmas catch up & join me in toasting the end of the beginning!

Onward! To Brexit!

🍷 🥃 🍸 🍹 🍾 🥂 🍻 🍺

The main groups I was thinking of is people who were under 18 in June 2016 but are 18 now, and recently naturalised citizens. EEA nationals have been naturalising at a faster rate than they were doing pre-referendum, for obvious reasons. There was some research but I can't find it- but they were massively Remain, like over 75%.

That said, there was some speculation that the very elderly, basically the ones who remember WW2, were more likely to have been Remain than younger pensioners who don't. If that's true, the group who were 65+ in 2016 might be more Leave leaning now. I don't recall seeing research but if that's true it would be worth factoring in.

I think a second referendum right now is pointless.

We don't know the outcome - a few people who voted leave that I know (which is very few, mostly know remain voters) have changed their minds, but I agree most voters will probably vote the same way as last time.

The combination of new voters, mind changers and voter apathy meaning some who voted last time wouldn't bother again, might mean a small majority for remain.

But really, what good would that do? It wouldn't shut anyone up. It just highlights even more what a divided country we are.

Really what needs to happen is an acknowledgement that voters are pretty much 50/50 and to realise that we need to take a middle road that is a compromise for everyone (probably SM and CU).

However IMO if we carry on hurtling down the road we are currently on, all that will happen is the backlash/swing to remain will be greater in the future when it goes tits up. It will probably be too late then.

My head is done in with the continual arguing and division.

A trolling Farage is not a good thing for the country or anyone in it.

I must admit I'd had a referendum on the final deal rather than just another one per se in mind. I'd perhaps support it if it gave more options, rather than a binary choice on what is not a binary issue. As things were, Europe liking EEA preferrers were cobbled in with total abolitionists on the Leave side. And Europhiles who want fuller integration alongside people who mistrust the EU but didn't feel able to vote for change with so little info in the Remain bloc.

If there was a 2nd referendum I think there could be a few remainers voting leave as well. After all plenty voted remain because of project fear propagated by DC, GO et al. Very little of it happened.

I also think that many have 'got older' and are more likely to vote leave just as the young may vote remain.

Possibly DoubleTrouble.

Who knows?
It would probably come down to the wire again regardless and how would that be helpful? It’s certainly not ‘decisive’

a vote on the deal with more than a binary choice could possibly be a way to drill down what voters actually WANT but even then, what if it’s an even split between 3 or 4 options?

The probably is that referendum are blunt told to answer complicated questions.

Our country shouldn’t be run like a series of bleedin’ Big Brother ‘winner takes all’

Problem not probably

The opinion polls that have been done indicate that a small percentage of 2016 Remainers would change to Leave now, though less than the Leavers who'd change. But most people would repeat their vote, on either side. The main things that might lead to change are more options and the different composition of the electorate.

A second referendum may have a significantly lower turnout. People may feel 'a protest' has been registered and leave it at that.

As the last US presidential election showed it is often the people who don't vote that change the course of the election.

Clinton got more votes than Trump but it was the low turnout of the Black community in key states that resulted in her loosing ie voters who turned out for Obama but not for Clinton.

Many leavers may just go back to 'politicians they're all the same' thinking and remain will win by default.

Possibly.

This on its own is a good enough reason why a No Deal scenario cannot happen.

I now have proof the EU is corrupt. I've been looking for ages. This proves it.

Fromage

because of project fear

Or as its commonly known - reality

Betfair odds on Remain vs Leave in a new ref. Note the bookies got this completely wrong the first time.

4/7 means in probability terms: 7 / (4+7) = 64% of Remain

11/8 means 8 / (11+8) = 42% of Leave

If there was a 2nd referendum I think there could be a few remainers voting leave as well. After all plenty voted remain because of project fear propagated by DC, GO et al. Very little of it happened.

The £ hit a 30 year low on the back of the referendum, everyones food bill went up. If you were already struggling that is pretty fear inducing. Remember also Brexit was supposed to benefit the poorest most.

Leavers who mock the pre referendum predictions seem to think that because the UK hasn't turned to dust everything is fine.

@GhostofFrankGrimes

I think Leavers have a point. There was doom and gloom that was going to happen immediately. That's impossible in a large economy with inertia save for a large and sharp external shock like the financial crisis.

You are right in pointing out however that the gradual deterioration of the economy has not been sufficiently called out for its causes and effects. The UK is not doing well certainly relative to the EU27 except maybe GREECE which I didn't expect the UK ever to be compared to. It really is mostly Brexit related.

If you read the papers, as soon as there is good news the pound goes up, something worrying it goes down, Exports have gone up due to the lower pound, so this has helped the Economic outlook of some industries, also the fact people are spending less on the high street and the fact Landlords have been upping rents for the last 10 years have caused a spiral that means less money is around, and so less spending.
This is happening all over the world, the USA and Russian are not in the EU and they have it as well, it's a major problem, and I am not sure how we solve it. This lead to Brexit, Trump and it looks like Merkel will be the next one ousted, no one expected this, but doesn't this tell you that the world over people want major change..... not just the UK

This lead to Brexit, Trump and it looks like Merkel will be the next one ousted, no one expected this, but doesn't this tell you that the world over people want major change..... not just the UK

The much lauded Brexit domino effect never happened. Mainland Europe has largely rejected right wing populism. People have are right to be angry about housing, shrinking wages etc but leaving the EU will only make these things worse. People want change they just can't articulate why and how they want it. Makes them easy pray for cheap slogans like "take back control" and "make America great gain".

Mainland Europe has largely rejected right wing populism

If you knew the slightest thing about Europe you’d known the opposite is true.
Right wing politics is on the rise in Europe, just look at Austria. & the French far right did pretty well last year, best they’ve done in ages.

People want change they just can't articulate why and how they want it

Yes they can - they vote for Brexit, Donald Trump, Sadiq Khan, Jeremy Corbyn, or whoever they feel wil best represent them.

That’s all they need to do.

Interesting that no one did explain why our seemingly imminent loss of financial passporting was deemed 'project fear'.

Leavers- you're going to need to come up with answers at some point.

Just saying

Mainland Europe has largely rejected right wing populism

Apart from all the different parts of mainland Europe which have done the precise opposite of that.

"...there has been a significant increase in support over the last two comparable elections. (The exceptions are Italy and Finland, where the Northern League and the Finns parties have lost votes)..."

www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-the-rise-of-right-wing-populism-in-europe

If Merkel has just about formed a new coalition in the past 25 hours how is she going to be ousted? Can someone pls explain?

If LePen was easily defeated and Wilders may no headway in the Netherlands why are we saying the right wing is rising in Europe?

If Trump gets indicted by Mueller or impeached and the GOP gets wiped out during the mid terms is this a further sign of the rise of the hard right then?

And if we agree the right wing is gaining a greater voice (let's assume we do) is it the view that this is a force for good? Are we all happy this is happening?

Today has been a perfect lesson in the madness that is EU v UK politics.

This morning TM decided to take the credit for abolishing credit cards charges, omitting the fact that it was an EU directive.

The reality is, it's a bit of a shit idea anyway because credit card charges are a genuine cost incurred by retailers so are just going to be passed on anyway, just in a different form now.

The EU has always been a scape goat for bad ideas yet TM saw fit to take credit for something she thought was a good idea!

The EU might not be perfect but it's preferable to being at the mercy of these self serving fuckwits!

www.euronews.com/2018/01/08/eus-juncker-says-next-eu-budget-has-to-be-bigger-despite-brexit

Do you really think asking for yet more money from Countries who pay, is going to endear the EU to them, and the Italy is saying they may stop paying as they are losing out.
Then saying if we returned we would have NO rebate and be expected to pay even more.

The EU is a Black hole money PIT.

@mummmy2017

The EU budget contribution we make is literally a rounding error. It's big to you and me but nothing in the context of a large economy like the U.K. just so you know our National Debt is approaching £2 trillion.

What discount are we losing when we rejoin? What are we rejoining ? What have we left?

Lepen wasn’t easily defeated, she made it through to the last round, first time that’s happened in years.
What are you doing on an EU thread if you have no idea about recent French politics?