Westministenders: Money, money, money

[RedToothBrush]

The big developments are that the government have signalled they are prepared to pay more and to involve the ECJ when it comes to citizens rights on condition that we move to talk of trade. But no apparent progress on NI. Which is significant with Ireland threatening to veto.

The EU has not changed its stance at all. Since Day 1.

There is always a worrying omission and lack of commitment to retain the Charter of Fundamental Rights. The bonfire begins.

Talk is of Green still going in a reshuffle, possibly with Gove replacing him as Deputy PM.

Coalition talks in Germany have broken down, and the British have got excited about it, whilst the German response have largely been a slight shrug.

Its been a much quieter week, despite the budget. Thank goodness. There are lots of outstanding issues that are lurking in the background like the Green one though.

The main message coming from the budget, has not been any new policy, but the dreadful economic forecast for the next few years.

Poll tax protest only gathered steam after the bills went out, in England. (sorry Scotland).

Not quite: Poll tax protesters were only listened to when it hit England and Wales. Westminster (Thatcher) was quite happy to ignore Scotland. It caused/hastened her demise; although the Brexiters like to claim her scalp, I think the Poll Tax was the key.

... and of course, it wrecked the Tories in Scotland for a generation.

signed, thanks for posting.

I don't think anything can change the mind of leavers. Price rises in the supermarkets are companies exploiting Brexit apparently. The only thing that would delay it would be an external unrelated event like a war.

Andrew Lilico @ andrew_lilico
Recent events should remind us what we already knew: the US is neither sufficiently alike us, culturally & politically, nor does it respect us enough, to serve as our main geopolitical partner post-Brexit. Trade & security partnership: yes. Deepest geopolitical partnership: no.

This is a shift. Whether he admits it or not.

Bravo Owen Jones! A whole article on why labour aren’t polling that well given the clusterfuck political situation and he manages to only make one solitary reference to brexit, and even that in a fairly superficial way (“a chaotic Brexit process”)

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/29/question-labour-must-answer-further-ahead-polls

Someone on a comments page suggested that the likes of Ken Clarke and the centrist labour people being edged out by momentum could form a pro Europe centrist party. Unlikely to happen but would be interesting if it did. I know that's what the lib dems are but they have been, unfairly IMO, made toxic by the Tories.

...then why no astronomical Labour lead in the polls?

Mail, Express, Telegraph spewing anti-Labour propaganda, plus the BBC which always prefers to have a UKIP spokesperson on a programme. It astonished me that Labour did so well in the last election, even though they didn't win.

ONS migration numbers out and down. Esp from the EU 27.

ONS

How would a Brexiter spin this positively? Any ideas?

Attached a spreadsheet which shows taxes paid vis benefits received of EU citizens.

Some cheering news! The Daily Mail has just posted a £112 million loss in past financial year (compared to £200+ million profit the year before) .

Yay!!!

lala

Olivia do you have a UK National comparator for those stats, adjusted for differing age profile with EU27? Also don't see any factoring in of share of deficit spending per head?

Immigration totals don't really impact my Brexit view. I am interested in the productivity / growth / employment / wage dynamic, so the employment rate, inflation rate, growth rate etc. over the medium to long term are of more interest.

@lalalonglegs

I think it's due to a one-off loss due to the sale of an asset. Euromoney I think.

Still: it's core business is not doing as well as it was. Shares down 30% or so.

Do they look close to going bust though?

ONS figures seem to reflect the recovery in EU27 economies over the last 12 months which I view as positive all round. The current net positive migration figure of 230k is in line with pre Brexit levels from 2009 to 2015. Also positive that fewer people are coming to the UK on spec. Significant part of the reduction from 330k is from Poland. Poland has a brain drain problem so I am pleased UK plc seems to have stopped fuelling this.

Olivia less forriners init?

Interesting Owen Jones article. In terms of Scottish politics his analysis may also, to some extent, explain the Tory resurgence. English pensioners have been insulated from Tory Austerity, but SNP Devolved policy to mitigate Tory policy has had a wider impact.

Perhaps a parochial point, but there are 30+ potential Labour seats up for grabs in Scotland, without requiring very much political soul searching or poll shifting in Labour's favour.

More polls:
no2brexit.com/polls.htm
Remain hub has gone live on twitter. Amazing to see hundreds of groups up and down the whole country. (will save on xmas cards this year )

And parliament doesn't appear to exist anymore.
@danbloom1
Tories lose ANOTHER Commons motion after boycotting it - this time on providing better transitional arrangements to the Waspi women, who had their pension age put up. It passes 288-0

Another lovely thing about brexit is the number of Scottish friends who had had SNP stuff (quite understandably ) all over FB, who are now posting lots of Remain stuff. Bridges.

Tories have almost no grassroots, few young people, little operational SM presence, hardly any in Scotland and don't vote in parliament cos they'll lose.

Tories don't really exist anymore do they? Except as a brexit money laundering operation.

@howabout

ONS figures seem to reflect the recovery in EU27 economies over the last 12 months which I view as positive all round.

Agreed. We will note that the sick EU27 are now all growing faster than the UK.

The current net positive migration figure of 230k is in line with pre Brexit levels from 2009 to 2015. Also positive that fewer people are coming to the UK on spec. Significant part of the reduction from 330k is from Poland. Poland has a brain drain problem so I am pleased UK plc seems to have stopped fuelling this.

So ...

1. you are happy for Poland that its smart people are staying home - this is good for the UK?
2. you don't mind that smart Poles are finding the UK less attractive - this is good for the UK?

Forriners ...

@Olivia I thought loss must be down to picking up tab for Katie Hopkins' various libels and slurs...

I don't think anything can change the mind of leavers.

^This.

@HashiAsLarry

Pretty much.

Interesting how EU27 immigration is going down and we haven't left yet.

Pretty soon the only immigration we will have will be non EU. And we'll find a way to blame Brussels for that.

Just one example why the RoI is likely to insist on specific assurances and why the EU insists the ECJ must be the final protector of expats' rights ...

IDS on Conservative Home, 26 September 2017:

"In conclusion, any agreement must not bind future Governments.
While, clearly, any UK Government will wish to cooperate with the EU as an 
ally,
areas of foreign policy, such as defence, border control, judicial
authority, agriculture, fisheries, environment, energy, trade policy 
must be fully returned to the UK"

< If agreements can't bind future governments, the UK will struggle to get an FTA with any country, or indeed any international agreement on anything >

I struggle to understand how anyone can look at that HMRC spreadsheet and not accept that E27 immigrants bring significant economic benefit overall to the UK.

Of course, within that average, individual native Brits can lose out, or indeed gain a great deal from immigration - those needing carers, HCPs ....

However, most of those who make E27 FOM a red line seem to be motivated by ignorance and / or a xenophobic form of nationalism.

Btw, the "brain drain" of poorer E27 countries will be replaced by an increased brain drain from developing countries
who are far more vulnerable than E European countries

Also will anger many Brexit voters wanting to end E27 FOM

For decades before joining the then EEC, the UK has imported skilled & professional workers, because of a lack of suitable Uk staff.