Westministenders: Money, money, money

[RedToothBrush]

The big developments are that the government have signalled they are prepared to pay more and to involve the ECJ when it comes to citizens rights on condition that we move to talk of trade. But no apparent progress on NI. Which is significant with Ireland threatening to veto.

The EU has not changed its stance at all. Since Day 1.

There is always a worrying omission and lack of commitment to retain the Charter of Fundamental Rights. The bonfire begins.

Talk is of Green still going in a reshuffle, possibly with Gove replacing him as Deputy PM.

Coalition talks in Germany have broken down, and the British have got excited about it, whilst the German response have largely been a slight shrug.

Its been a much quieter week, despite the budget. Thank goodness. There are lots of outstanding issues that are lurking in the background like the Green one though.

The main message coming from the budget, has not been any new policy, but the dreadful economic forecast for the next few years.

Eurovision song contest entry:
@banana_ranch
'Remain' by Banana Ranch: via @YouTube

@woman11017

Re the poll: I think we all know it is biased through selection.

As an enthusiastic Remainer I would love for this type of support to be true. Unfortunately a better poll will require a better randomised process.

it is biased through selection

We have no funding, no party, no infrastructure; only public support in groups across the whole country, Europe America and Buck house now .

Growing by the day.

@woman11017

Your perception feels right to me. I do believe sentiment is moving against Brexit too.

But I also know I am deeply biased and subject to my own wishful thinking - confirmation bias.

So the only way to tell for sure is to ask the question in an unbiased way. The YouGov polls I think do a reasonable job. Last one was on Nov 8 and there is a small majority who think we should Remain.

So the movement is weak so far. My belief is it will strengthen after Xmas as more bad news streams in.

Like the US election, ridiculous JC and the ref, it looks like we can't win.

Campaigning is random and grass roots. A bit like the poll tax one. This poll is just part of it OliviaD68

45th's terrorist support could help too, although it makes it dangerous for us with no more Eurapol.

Wonder why it happened this week?

Especially with idiotic behaviour towards ROI and NI.

May is definitely putting peace at risk, in so many ways.

Wonder how that Mair got his gun.

Amazing as it seems to all of us on Westminstenders, sentiment towards Brexit doesn't seem to be shifting at anything other than a glacial rate. What has happened is that some Brexiteers will express frustration with the way the government is handling the process but this reading of the way Brexit is panning out allows them to keep their fantasy of post-EU sunlit uplands: it's not Brexit that was the bad idea, it was the government - many of whom are covert Remainers - that screwed it up.

If we get to the spring and Ryanair (and perhaps others) do not publish flight schedules beyond Brexit day as they have threatened, then I can see that being a moment when the penny drops that there could be major drawbacks to this enterprise... but it is staggering how Leave supporters can constantly reframe this clusterfuck.

Wishful thinking. It’ll be the Eu’s intransigence that’s to blame, and further proof that we’re better off out than in.

There is literally no way to argue with a Brexit nutjob because they are de facto right.

Mike Roberts left his job with Greater Manchester Police to try and form an anti-Brexit party, as did anti-terrorism officer Chris Coghlan and, temporarily, Economist journalist Jeremy Cliffe - www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41678715

howabout Wed 29-Nov-17 11:40:55
Olivia as I understand it, the sticking point for "sufficient progress" is the veracity of the assurances given to date re the Border, rather than the content. The details on how to implement "no hard border" is of necessity tied up with the final trade deal.

This scenario translates to Ireland being taken hostage and used as a means of forcing a trade agreement with the EU.
No trade agreement = hard border; cushy agreement = soft border.

Ireland has been here before with Britain and is wary of taking any part in a further kicking-the-can-down-the-road exercise. The last time that happened, with the threat of the Black and Tans' return hanging over the heads of the negotiators, the result was the setting up of the state of Northern Ireland and its neighbour the Irish Free State.

@lalalonglegs

It's a cult. A cult will always reframe to suit its needs. Not a surprise.

What I think is going to matter

• £50bn headline
• inflation's effect on budgets
• more bad news on the economy
• NHS under increasing pressure
• Labour's continuing shift against Brexit
• continued bad news on the exit process

@mathanxiety

Correction: ANY trade agreement leads to a border. I don't know what hard or soft means. A border is a border with customs clearance and enforcement a requirement.

NI needs to be in the SM and CU for there NOT to be a border.

Assurances mean nothing to Ireland if the outcome is to be dependent on the result of trade negotiations and not on those assurances.

And the GFA must still be grappled with, in particular the terms relating to the ECJ/ECHR.

The UK is frankly not in a position to give assurances, while refusing to stare down the DUP.

Olivia - your list is a scary one... to Remainers and, perhaps, very soft Brexiteers. To the rest, it's too theoretical. Leavers aren't going to change their minds until Brexit manifests itself in some way that very practically and very noticeably affects them. Everything else is Project Fear .

anything other than a glacial rate
I think it's important that there's a tiny swing to remain despite labour, the media, the funding, the BBC, our neighbourhood shills, etc etc.
That there's been a shift so far, when (most ) people still manage to eat and get on planes, is significant. It's a marathon....

If brexiters were safe, why don't they have a storming lead in the polls?

@lalalonglegs

True. Impact in the pockets will matter - ie inflation

But this type of stuff does too - the Sun and others like to post bad news bc it sells.

@DrivenToDespair

The proverbial frog in boiling water?

It's not a question of why don't Leavers have a huge lead in the polls, it's after all the revelations about the referendum and the shitfest since then, why don't Remainers have a huge lead in the polls? This can't all be about the newspapers cheerleading Brexit.

I agree that there is everything to play for but the ground being gained seems so tiny at the moment.

Peregrina, is that petition online?

Poll tax protest only gathered steam after the bills went out, in England. (sorry Scotland ). The constitutional arguments made very little headway until it hit pockets. Labour was useless then too.

Patriotic poverty will be a more difficult 'sell'.

@lalalonglegs

Confirmation bias. We are not rational beings. We make a decision based on gut feel then collate information, however crap, to validate that decision.

It's a hard process to reverse.

Having said all that, with armed fascists on the brexit side, who knows.

It wasn't a petition, it was a letter to the Ambassador to add your signature to. www.hopenothate.org.uk/

signed it. Thank you.