Westministenders: The Tory Civil War – The Knives Are Out Again. A Big Battle Looms.

[RedToothBrush]

Today has seen the publication of a story about how Johnson and Gove are holding May hostage in a ‘soft coup’ and have made various demands over what they want for a hard Brexit. The letter which was for May’s and Barwell’s eyes only has some how leaked. Don’t forget how Gove has just joined the Brexit Cabinet.

It comes at a time, when the Observer is also leading with an editorial demanding Johnson goes over his handling of the Nazarin Zagheri-Ratcliffe case as well as his long list of poorly judged comments which have had diplomatic consequences and another newspaper is leading with a story about how 40 Tories are ready to no-confidence May.

It all smacks of a personal battle between May and Johnson to govern the party, which has been playing out publicly for some time, most noticeable in the parallel Tory party conference leadership speeches and Johnson’s freelancing.

Johnson also seems to be potentially caught up, with what happens in the Mueller investigation due to a photo and lying about having met Misfud which could be politically damaging.

Priti Patel’s –sacking-- resignation also fits in neatly with the story. The Foreign Office were not informed and there is the curious side story that May DID know various details but told Patel to keep quiet, so not to embarrass the FCO. Or more to the point, be seen to be undermining Johnson.

Whether this is true or not we don’t know. It does have implications if its true, but it also says something if its not too. Why leak the story at all? Once again its about the Johnson v May dynamic.

As it stands, if Gove and Johnson have been leading May then why would they decide to ditch her and go for power without her?
Notably Gove has the best satisfaction scores of the Cabinet amongst Tories on Conservative Home too. He has had a lot of favourable comments over his statements over pesticides. The pair seem to have put differences aside and are working together. And May has become more and more of a liability. Johnson, also came second favourite to be Tory leader amongst Tories (if you discount don’t knows and none of the aboves). Maybe they fancy their chances…

Or it’s a last ditch attempt to cling on to that power as threats that Johnson might finally get the boot – if Zagheri-Ratcliffe does have her sentence extended and Johnson’s position is no longer tenable for even May’s self-preservation. Whilst much has been framed about it being about May’s political survival, its definitely not just her whose future is in doubt. Who was the ‘dead wood’, that young Tories demanded be ditched in a reshuffle to bring in young blood? Either way, Gove has firmly hitched his wagon to Johnson's effectively repeating Johnson's dismissal of Zagheri-Ratcliffe's case.

Anyway another week and another set of high political drama is a foregone conclusion.

A round up of other developments this week:

Tory Party / Government

1. May announces intention to enshrine Brexit leaving date in law to force rebels to tow the line. This has many implications, not least tax related and putting more pressure on the UK government. It’s generally regarded as a desperate move by anyone sane.
2. The Impact Assessments were a dogs dinner that was done at the last minute, and were not worth the paper they were written on. There was no detail to them.
3. Priti Patel’s –sacking—resignation after having undocumented and unauthorised meetings with a series of Israel ministers. And then lying about it.
4. Penny Mordaunt, who lied about the UK not having a veto to stop Turkey joining the EU, replaced Patel.
5. Damien Green Porn. Another ex-policeman is backing the story that it was found on his computer despite Green’s denials.
6. The ongoing Zagheri-Ratcliffe story with Iran and Johnson’s gaff and none apology
7. Photograph of Johnson with ‘The Professor’ Misfud has been found. This links Johnson to how events in the US might pan out. If there are lots more revelations in the Mueller inquiry about him, then that might reflect on Johnson and make him subject to some difficult questions. Politically this might be problematic for Johnson.
8. Claims that the whips office leaked the name of someone who reported allegations against Nigel Evans which occurred 6 months after Evans had been cleared of rape and the sexual assault of six men
9. Suspended Tory MP Charlie Elphicke has complained that he is yet to be informed of what he has been accused of.
10. Young Tory MPs issue threat to May that she brings in young blood and gets rid of ‘dead wood, who do nothing but screw up’. Give her until the New Year to do so.
11. 40 Tories apparently ready to no confidence May.
12. Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll reveals a very small percentage of people want a no deal situation despite all the noise of it being a good idea.
13. Lord Ashcroft mentioned in the Paradise papers. Reported as domiciled in Belize despite assurances given to parliament that he would give up his non-dom status and pay tax in the UK as a Lord.

Parliament / Opposition both inside and outside parliament
14) May facing a possible revolt over Universal Credit. MPs due to vote on reducing wait times.
15) Talk that there are enough Tory Rebels prepared to back a Dominic Grieve amendment to force a meaningful vote on the Brexit Deal.
16) May under increasing pressure from business leaders to make a deal after a meeting with them at no. 10.
17) Lots of distraction in the Paradise Papers generally which raises the question over the power and influence of the super rich versus the poor. This plays well to Labour’s narrative and against the idea of a low tax post Brexit Britain.
18) Lord Kerr, author of the a50 clause states that May has misled the public and insists that it is reversible.
19) New Money Laundering and Sanctions Bill in the Lords. Government looking to omit 4th EU directive on tax avoidance. Naturally raises questions about whether UK would adopt new rules due to come into force the week after Brexit Day.
20) Money Laundering Bill also has lots of overlap with immigration and home office operations, raising some rather sinister questions over who could be affected and why. Potential for abuse seems to be huge.
21) Leave leaning Cornwall and Grimsby seeking special status in the face of Brexit – in line with remaining to preserve business / economic interests
22) Suicide of Welsh Assembly Labour member who was under investigation for sexual harassment
23) A Labour MP accuses the already suspended fellow Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins of inappropriate behaviour.

EU
24) Ireland demands the UK stays in the customs union.
25) Brexit talks have not progressed at all despite apparently being speeded up. Barnier saying that progress in December only possible if UK makes moves on the settlement deal. Prospect of stage two being delayed until March being raised. This leaves just 7 months to come to a deal, which plays to the No Deal Crowd’s interests.
26) EU believe the UK are not working in the best interests of the UK and there is a failure by May and Davis to understand the process or what No Deal will mean.
27) EU signalling that there is no bespoke transition. Only available options ae EEA or EFTA fudges.
28) Increasing view in Brussels that No Deal likely. EU think May hasn’t got the authority to come to a deal and its easier for her to drag UK off the cliff. Though they have doubts she will survive much longer.

World
29) Trump sides with Putin above the US Intelligence Community over the Russian election interference. On Veterans Day.
30) US’s Wilbur Ross said UK will have to dump European food safety standards and that losing our passporting rights to the EU would harm our interests with the US.
31) Developments in Lebanon, with it being said that Saudi Arabia said to have declared war. Many would consider this to be a proxy war against Iran. Crown Prince has purged political opponents including several with significant Wall Street interests. Eight died in a helicopter crash.
32) Large scale far right march in Poland as part of their Independence Day.

All their activities and interference probably did affect just a few % - and hence swung the 2 most damaging votes in the West since WW2

Damaging to whom? Certainly to the UK.

But will American business reap a major Brexit windfall when the UK goes cap in hand to strike a trade deal? Yes, that will happen.

And you keep on forgetting Robert Mercer, Cambridge Analytica, the Constitutional Research Council and its links to Saudi Arabia, the European Research Group, the fact that Arron Banks has a lot of money stashed away offshore, Legatum, and a good deal more.

Let's not forget either that the Koch brothers have been playing the game with their various front groups for decades - they are the original right wing plutocrats.

Disruption games: why are libertarians lining up with autocrats to undermine democracy?

In the era of digital politics, an odd alliance has sprung up: anti-state campaigners and Moscow-backed nationalists are combining to disrupt liberal institutions

amp.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/19/trump-russia-fake-news-libertarians-autocrats-democracy

Interesting to note that Varadkar's Fine Gael party conference is being held in Cavan this year. Cavan is a border county.

Hashi - my conclusion here is that the US is not necessarily a friend to the EU and is actually the economy with the greatest ability to capitalise immediately on EU disintegration. I don't think anyone should lose sight of that fact. There seems to be an inability to keep an eye on that particular ball when Russian influence is mentioned.

why are libertarians All male, I wonder why?
Redistributive taxation and representative democracy are a feminist issue. ( need to work on the slogan )

Most of us here are fully capable of nuanced thinking that sees the US gains and Russian interference as issues, not sure why one apparently needs belittling constantly in the face of the other. Especially when they also currently have a massive link.

mathanxiety Sun 19-Nov-17 07:58:26
Delurking, excellent post. I thought I was relatively educated about the EU but had not thought about the former EE states and the US in this way. Very interesting.

Especially when they also currently have a massive link And especially too when our elected politicians and feminists are being threatened by opaquely funded fascists.

will American business reap a major Brexit windfall

Why would capitalists seeking to destroy other capitalists be big news?

It's the way capitalism works.

'He's a bastard, but he's our bastard' is the modus operandi of most international diplomacy and trade.

I know which bastards I'd prefer to have on our side and it's not Banks et al and their fascist 'agents of influence' funders.

When talking about what would swing the public vote wrt to interference as we were, Russia is a more usable bogeyman than the us. Americans are practically Brits with a range of funny accents after all. Getting closer to the Anglo speaking nations and commonwealth has been often cited as a good thing by brexiteers. The facts of the situation don't matter. But the Russian angle brings a non-Anglo nation with some tangible proof of interference. It's easier for the press et al to focus on, without upsetting those who prefer 'our cousins'.

without upsetting those who prefer 'our cousins
That's true, Hashi France, has had a notable history of formally rejecting American cultural imperialism and we've just morphed into Airstrip one.

But.............our NHS, our remaining unions, our creative sub cultures, our multi cultural cities, Sadiq Khan, Scottish, Irish and Welsh self determination, really annoys them.

Going back a wee bit, does anyone else have the temptation to click through the Voter Consultancy Ltd link to offer Sarah Woollaston my support for her - and make Voter Consultancy pay for the privilege

It's silly to look at US vs Russian influence as either/or.

Broadly US and EU interests are aligned in many respects, in terms of their broadly liberal view and their global policy objectives since the Second World War. Of course there is rivalry on the trade front, but I think it's foolish to believe that the majority of thinking Americans and US business people on either side of the political spectrum really want the EU to collapse.

But it's certainly true that some US businesses and disaster capitalists would profit from EU disintegration and/or Brexit, and some of these companies are headed by men (it's almost always men) who have an ideological vision that is at odds with EU liberalism. These people have been funding the far right, which has a similar ideological viewpoint, although there are signs that some (Mercer, Adelson) are starting to ask questions about the genie they have let out of the bottle, and whether aligning with nazis is really in their long-term business and policy interests.

As for Russia I think the evidence is too strong to believe that there has been no attempt to meddle in European and US democracy. I'm not anti-Russian - I have Russian business contacts and colleagues and Russia has been a key part of my work for over a quarter of a century (my very first job as a strategic analyst was feeding information about developments in FSU states to senior management and I even learnt some Russian to facilitate this). But the Russian anti-liberal agenda and its global policy objectives are not aligned with those of the EU or, traditionally, of the US and it's hardly a stretch to believe that a country which is led by a man of Putin's intellectual and (a)moral calibre would have spotted the disruptive potential of information technology.

Interesting Mail Online story (I'm not linking) suggesting Davis being frozen out of talks by colleagues/Tory desire to turn UK into tax haven.

Going back a wee bit, does anyone else have the temptation to click through the Voter Consultancy Ltd link to offer Sarah Woollaston my support for her  - and make Voter Consultancy pay for the privilege

This is an excellent idea!

Going back a wee bit, does anyone else have the temptation to click through the Voter Consultancy Ltd link to offer Sarah Woollaston my support for her
Great idea prettybird I'm being thick, but how do you do it?

That mail on Sunday article:

Friends of Brexit Secretary David Davis fear he is on the brink of resigning over the bombshell Brexit letter sent by Boris Johnson and Michael Gove to Theresa May.

The letter setting out their blueprint for a post-EU Britain was kept secret from the rest of the Cabinet – including Mr Davis – until it was revealed in last week’s Mail on Sunday.

Now we can disclose that the missive effectively calls for Mr Davis to be sidelined by a new, non-elected ‘Brexit Tsar’. Mr Davis’s allies say he is ‘deeply frustrated’ by the way Mr Johnson and Mr Gove went behind his back to hand-deliver the letter to the Prime Minister’s chief of staff Gavin Barwell. Last night, No 10 added to his humiliation by failing to deny that the Brexit Secretary had still not seen a copy of the letter.

In the full letter, Foreign Secretary Mr Johnson and Environment Secretary Mr Gove lend weight to claims that some Brexiteers want Mrs May to turn the UK into the ‘Singapore of Europe’ by slashing tax and red tape.

And they say she must prepare for crashing out of the EU after a ‘total breakdown’ in Brexit talks.

^The rebel pair flex their muscles by saying she should force all Cabinet Ministers to ‘submit to a process’ to prove they are enforcing a ‘hard Brexit’ blueprint – including recruiting thousands of extra customs and immigration officers. The 2,500-word letter portrays Mrs May as an enfeebled PM forced to take orders from the two men who brought down her predecessor David Cameron.

In addition to sidelining Mr Davis, they also take aim at Chancellor Philip Hammond, whose supporters were furious when we revealed how Mr Johnson and Mr Gove accused him of failing to show ‘sufficient energy’ to prepare for a ‘no-deal’ outcome with the EU.^

And then it publishes the supposed source of the turf war.

What rights do non citizens have in Singapore?

Norman Smith @ BBCnormans
We are on the brink of some serious movement forward on Brexit - Hammond @MarrShow

My fear and fury in the eye of the Russia-Leave storm - Carole Cadwalladr

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/19/my-fear-and-fury-in-the-eye-of-the-russia-leave-storm

Unfortunately, all the links are screen shots, so can't link through. I've tried searching on Voter Consultancy Ltd (but refuse to Like it and join all 25 of its "community" ) to see if its algorithms will then target me. Suspect not as I'm in Scotland so not in one of the "traitorous" constituencies

Also, judging by some of the comments coming up when I searched on the name, they may have pulled the sponsorship after repeated complaints to FB.

Brilliant article Pain Gove and Johnson are running the show. Who's running them?

thanks prettybird

Ralf Little exposes Jeremy Hunt's lies on twitter:
politicalscrapbook.net/2017/11/jeremy-hunt-humiliated-by-tv-star-who-proved-his-boasts-about-nhs-improvement-are-total-bullshit/

www.richardcorbett.org.uk/brexit-impact-studies-ep/

I am mot sure whether the European Brexit Impact studies have been linked here yet.
They don't appear to be worried about details hindering their 'negotiating position'.

Has this article been posted yet? Apologies if it has. The Scum being so fucking awful they seem to be scraping a new low even for them (irish times link - not the sun)

here