Westministenders: The Tory Civil War – The Knives Are Out Again. A Big Battle Looms.

[RedToothBrush]

Today has seen the publication of a story about how Johnson and Gove are holding May hostage in a ‘soft coup’ and have made various demands over what they want for a hard Brexit. The letter which was for May’s and Barwell’s eyes only has some how leaked. Don’t forget how Gove has just joined the Brexit Cabinet.

It comes at a time, when the Observer is also leading with an editorial demanding Johnson goes over his handling of the Nazarin Zagheri-Ratcliffe case as well as his long list of poorly judged comments which have had diplomatic consequences and another newspaper is leading with a story about how 40 Tories are ready to no-confidence May.

It all smacks of a personal battle between May and Johnson to govern the party, which has been playing out publicly for some time, most noticeable in the parallel Tory party conference leadership speeches and Johnson’s freelancing.

Johnson also seems to be potentially caught up, with what happens in the Mueller investigation due to a photo and lying about having met Misfud which could be politically damaging.

Priti Patel’s –sacking-- resignation also fits in neatly with the story. The Foreign Office were not informed and there is the curious side story that May DID know various details but told Patel to keep quiet, so not to embarrass the FCO. Or more to the point, be seen to be undermining Johnson.

Whether this is true or not we don’t know. It does have implications if its true, but it also says something if its not too. Why leak the story at all? Once again its about the Johnson v May dynamic.

As it stands, if Gove and Johnson have been leading May then why would they decide to ditch her and go for power without her?
Notably Gove has the best satisfaction scores of the Cabinet amongst Tories on Conservative Home too. He has had a lot of favourable comments over his statements over pesticides. The pair seem to have put differences aside and are working together. And May has become more and more of a liability. Johnson, also came second favourite to be Tory leader amongst Tories (if you discount don’t knows and none of the aboves). Maybe they fancy their chances…

Or it’s a last ditch attempt to cling on to that power as threats that Johnson might finally get the boot – if Zagheri-Ratcliffe does have her sentence extended and Johnson’s position is no longer tenable for even May’s self-preservation. Whilst much has been framed about it being about May’s political survival, its definitely not just her whose future is in doubt. Who was the ‘dead wood’, that young Tories demanded be ditched in a reshuffle to bring in young blood? Either way, Gove has firmly hitched his wagon to Johnson's effectively repeating Johnson's dismissal of Zagheri-Ratcliffe's case.

Anyway another week and another set of high political drama is a foregone conclusion.

A round up of other developments this week:

Tory Party / Government

1. May announces intention to enshrine Brexit leaving date in law to force rebels to tow the line. This has many implications, not least tax related and putting more pressure on the UK government. It’s generally regarded as a desperate move by anyone sane.
2. The Impact Assessments were a dogs dinner that was done at the last minute, and were not worth the paper they were written on. There was no detail to them.
3. Priti Patel’s –sacking—resignation after having undocumented and unauthorised meetings with a series of Israel ministers. And then lying about it.
4. Penny Mordaunt, who lied about the UK not having a veto to stop Turkey joining the EU, replaced Patel.
5. Damien Green Porn. Another ex-policeman is backing the story that it was found on his computer despite Green’s denials.
6. The ongoing Zagheri-Ratcliffe story with Iran and Johnson’s gaff and none apology
7. Photograph of Johnson with ‘The Professor’ Misfud has been found. This links Johnson to how events in the US might pan out. If there are lots more revelations in the Mueller inquiry about him, then that might reflect on Johnson and make him subject to some difficult questions. Politically this might be problematic for Johnson.
8. Claims that the whips office leaked the name of someone who reported allegations against Nigel Evans which occurred 6 months after Evans had been cleared of rape and the sexual assault of six men
9. Suspended Tory MP Charlie Elphicke has complained that he is yet to be informed of what he has been accused of.
10. Young Tory MPs issue threat to May that she brings in young blood and gets rid of ‘dead wood, who do nothing but screw up’. Give her until the New Year to do so.
11. 40 Tories apparently ready to no confidence May.
12. Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll reveals a very small percentage of people want a no deal situation despite all the noise of it being a good idea.
13. Lord Ashcroft mentioned in the Paradise papers. Reported as domiciled in Belize despite assurances given to parliament that he would give up his non-dom status and pay tax in the UK as a Lord.

Parliament / Opposition both inside and outside parliament
14) May facing a possible revolt over Universal Credit. MPs due to vote on reducing wait times.
15) Talk that there are enough Tory Rebels prepared to back a Dominic Grieve amendment to force a meaningful vote on the Brexit Deal.
16) May under increasing pressure from business leaders to make a deal after a meeting with them at no. 10.
17) Lots of distraction in the Paradise Papers generally which raises the question over the power and influence of the super rich versus the poor. This plays well to Labour’s narrative and against the idea of a low tax post Brexit Britain.
18) Lord Kerr, author of the a50 clause states that May has misled the public and insists that it is reversible.
19) New Money Laundering and Sanctions Bill in the Lords. Government looking to omit 4th EU directive on tax avoidance. Naturally raises questions about whether UK would adopt new rules due to come into force the week after Brexit Day.
20) Money Laundering Bill also has lots of overlap with immigration and home office operations, raising some rather sinister questions over who could be affected and why. Potential for abuse seems to be huge.
21) Leave leaning Cornwall and Grimsby seeking special status in the face of Brexit – in line with remaining to preserve business / economic interests
22) Suicide of Welsh Assembly Labour member who was under investigation for sexual harassment
23) A Labour MP accuses the already suspended fellow Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins of inappropriate behaviour.

EU
24) Ireland demands the UK stays in the customs union.
25) Brexit talks have not progressed at all despite apparently being speeded up. Barnier saying that progress in December only possible if UK makes moves on the settlement deal. Prospect of stage two being delayed until March being raised. This leaves just 7 months to come to a deal, which plays to the No Deal Crowd’s interests.
26) EU believe the UK are not working in the best interests of the UK and there is a failure by May and Davis to understand the process or what No Deal will mean.
27) EU signalling that there is no bespoke transition. Only available options ae EEA or EFTA fudges.
28) Increasing view in Brussels that No Deal likely. EU think May hasn’t got the authority to come to a deal and its easier for her to drag UK off the cliff. Though they have doubts she will survive much longer.

World
29) Trump sides with Putin above the US Intelligence Community over the Russian election interference. On Veterans Day.
30) US’s Wilbur Ross said UK will have to dump European food safety standards and that losing our passporting rights to the EU would harm our interests with the US.
31) Developments in Lebanon, with it being said that Saudi Arabia said to have declared war. Many would consider this to be a proxy war against Iran. Crown Prince has purged political opponents including several with significant Wall Street interests. Eight died in a helicopter crash.
32) Large scale far right march in Poland as part of their Independence Day.

mightybanhammer I'm pretty sure that Lurking was echoing your frustration, and the comment was directed at the inanity of the message, rather than directed at you reporting it. That's definitely the way I read it (obviously, I could be wrong but I have to say it would be very out of keeping with Lurking's general style - and also far more in keeping with how I think I might have responded, too) - sadly, a lot of the announcements from the Brexiteers do rather assume we're all a bit daft.

I'm still a bit sad and anxious tonight. I really don't understand why we don't have an actual opposition of some sort to this madness. It seems that the majority of the UK now genuinely don't want to leave the Single Market, so why why why is this continuing?

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3094394-Westministenders-Money-money-money?watched=1

A bit of a rushed new thread

I feel the same cat

.....exasperation that someone (North) who pushed so hard for Brexit was blogging about all the disasterous consequences.

Although Leavers, the Norths have always pushed for an EEA type agreement, so seeing the Govt now pushing for a hard Brexit, but apparently completely clueless, is a consistent viewpoint for them.

Great blog LH, very interesting.

We need affordable housing, and we need some sort of help with the deposits. We also need rent protection for those not in a position to buy.

Am tempted to join Twitter to explain how the NI border was the brainwave of Lloyd George and Winston Churchill, and not what the majority or Irish people on the island wanted at the time of the Anglo Irish treat negotiations. He may be surprised that NI came into being as a result of Unionist threats of violent insurrection.

...to Lord Kil-somethingorother...

I know that the Norths were advocating a different type of Brexit to the one we seem to be getting, Peregrina. But it surely should have been clear to them that a vote to leave was open to interpretation/ hijacking...

Here's North's 'Fexcit' plan. It's too late to wade through it now but
I thought the idea was EEA as a stepping stone - not the destination?

And, it's still full of the usual, "We were a great nation" guff. I'm guessing they're so obsessive and "right" about everything they couldn't possibly see it would be corrupted by rampant Brexiteers.

www.eureferendum.com/documents/flexcit.pdf

Math he is a retired DUP politician. He knows full well how the border came into being. He is just being provocative and nasty. Did you see where he said that Donegal should be part of NI? He is clearly not the sharpest knife in the drawer. If Donegal had been in NI it would have significantly increased the nationalist population in NI and perhaps aleeady have tipped the balance to a United Ireland in a border poll.

'Your Ma's a Hard Brexit' by Stacey Gregg, performed by Bronagh Gallagher

John Taylor from UUP. He was always pretty arrogant and a bit horrible

www.irishnews.com/news/2017/08/31/news/lord-kilclooney-says-nationalists-are-not-equal-to-unionists-1124541/

I think he is mistaking a non representative electoral boundary issue. Interesting how he is talking about a political majority. Is he against a electoral boundary change to reflect population change? I'm not even talking sectarian change. The west Belfast is the most populous in NI, yet it contains the National vote to a smaller voice. Proposed changed to separate into two (with rejigging the area around. The electoral commission looked at numbers, not the sectarian divides.

www.boundarycommission.org.uk/

"The Boundary Commission changes are to equalise the number of voters in each constituency, ensuring they have between 71,000 and 78,500 electors.

The Commission doesn't take political considerations into account."

"https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/boundary-changes-could-make-sinn-fein-biggest-party-in-northern-ireland-35831665.html

Bet while talking about political majority, he wouldn't want the electoral boundaries to be redrawn in a more fair manner. Even though they are not fit for purpose at the moment and don't seem to give fair nationalist representation.

Can't imagine him saying that Unionists are not equal to Nationalists because in a fairer redrawn constituency roll out, it seems they would get fewer seats.

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/unionism-is-spooked-by-radical-and-uncalled-for-boundary-change-plans-35835237.html

Bet a deal is done to retain Unionist hegemony, even if unrepresentative. 'Plus ca change'

I don't think we should be too hard berating him, he's agreeing that any hard border return will be the fault of the UK exitting the EU. Hes probably not meaning to but still

Oops, sorry. West Belfast not most populous, But did contain that large Nationalist vote to one constituency. It would be spread out to two new constituencies if changes occur. Maybe tipping critical mass in both to give Nationalist outcomes. Would favour SF though.

Yes you are right Cailleach Lord Kilclooney/John Taylor is UUP and not DUP as I said.

The six counties deliberately omitted the other three counties of Ulster in order to create the magic 70% Unionist majority in the creation of NI. That percentage is supposed to create a permanent majority and thus a hegemony. But also magically and unexpectedly, the Nationalist population which remained in that area has been recovering their numbers. And now it is at tipping balance the other way around.

I suspect other devices will be used to ensure that even if not the majority, the Unionists will have a stronger voice and backing by whichever gov't is in Westminster. I would be amazed if any constituency reform to reflect changes will be implemented. The British gov't was partisan in the past. Con's especially. It remains to be seen where it is going to end up right now.

I was mightily impressed with Owen Patterson on Daily Politics with Jo Coburn. He really knew his stuff. Nigel Dodds was on. I think they want the GFA gone. As numbers change.

The way they say the border will have this magical technology to create an invisible border makes me laugh a little. Not acknowledging any goods and livestock checks. Meanwhile saying that there cannot be a border in the Irish Sea as it would be separating them from the rest of the UK. If he is saying this proposed magic border is invisible between NI and Irl, would it not also be invisible in the Irish Sea?

I wondered what view Tory Catholics like Jacob Rees-Mogg and Ian Duncan Smith take of the Irish border? I don't know about IDS's Catholicism, but R-M's Catholicism comes via an Irish-American great grandmother, I believe. He's not an Old English Catholic like e.g. the Duke of Norfolk, which I think is the impression he tries to give.

As for Theresa May - a high church Anglican - weren't high Church Anglicans part of a ruling elite in Ireland?

Mother Torsten has looked at the numbers himself now rather than relying on Sam's off the cuff interpretation. Figures are 3,500 new owners per year at £600m per year. (Sam had taken the 3,500 as total for 5 years).

Equates to £160k per new home owner. Torsten still thinks it would be better for the State to buy them all a house and charge them rent. However since average FTB house price is £205k, £160k per new householder looks like quite good value to substitute owner occupiers for BTLers with the contingent State HB liability, to me.

www.resolutionfoundation.org/media/blog/the-chancellor-has-coped-with-a-huge-economic-downgrade-but-the-outlook-is-grim-for-families-across-britain/

IMO, JR Mogg's affinity is to JR Mogg. Full stop. The views he espouses are cold philosphical stances about angels on the head of a pin. Not a living faith of Christian duty and respect for the dignity of other people. I'd doubt he would lose much sleep over people being stripped of welfare.

As the Church of Ireland was in a predominantly Catholic country, it was not very high church really. You do have Cathedrals, but the churches would have been less trimmings to distinguish them from the people and practices of Catholicism.

When the Huguenots fled France to escape persecution, they quite happily became part of a new system in Ireland which disinherited and continued to penalise Catholics. They would have viewed Bishops and the trimmings from a continental Calvinist or Lutheran/Presbyterian view. Far from feeling solidarity with people persecuted by the State for their religion, they took the privileges their religious status newly afforded them at at disadvantage to others and thereby profited from the repression of Catholics. By 1810, Huguenots numbered in their thousands in Dublin and they regarded themselves as part of the 'chosen people', ie Protestant. Difference and discrimination maintained. If you didn't rob take their property and belongings, enforce ignorance by making a law against Catholic children being educated, how would you render them into an animal state of penury and ignorance? The previous Penal Laws were bitter and dispossessed and rendered people as paupers in their own country.

I'm not sure jrm or IDs think much about NI at all tbh.