Westministenders: The Tory Civil War – The Knives Are Out Again. A Big Battle Looms.

[RedToothBrush]

Today has seen the publication of a story about how Johnson and Gove are holding May hostage in a ‘soft coup’ and have made various demands over what they want for a hard Brexit. The letter which was for May’s and Barwell’s eyes only has some how leaked. Don’t forget how Gove has just joined the Brexit Cabinet.

It comes at a time, when the Observer is also leading with an editorial demanding Johnson goes over his handling of the Nazarin Zagheri-Ratcliffe case as well as his long list of poorly judged comments which have had diplomatic consequences and another newspaper is leading with a story about how 40 Tories are ready to no-confidence May.

It all smacks of a personal battle between May and Johnson to govern the party, which has been playing out publicly for some time, most noticeable in the parallel Tory party conference leadership speeches and Johnson’s freelancing.

Johnson also seems to be potentially caught up, with what happens in the Mueller investigation due to a photo and lying about having met Misfud which could be politically damaging.

Priti Patel’s –sacking-- resignation also fits in neatly with the story. The Foreign Office were not informed and there is the curious side story that May DID know various details but told Patel to keep quiet, so not to embarrass the FCO. Or more to the point, be seen to be undermining Johnson.

Whether this is true or not we don’t know. It does have implications if its true, but it also says something if its not too. Why leak the story at all? Once again its about the Johnson v May dynamic.

As it stands, if Gove and Johnson have been leading May then why would they decide to ditch her and go for power without her?
Notably Gove has the best satisfaction scores of the Cabinet amongst Tories on Conservative Home too. He has had a lot of favourable comments over his statements over pesticides. The pair seem to have put differences aside and are working together. And May has become more and more of a liability. Johnson, also came second favourite to be Tory leader amongst Tories (if you discount don’t knows and none of the aboves). Maybe they fancy their chances…

Or it’s a last ditch attempt to cling on to that power as threats that Johnson might finally get the boot – if Zagheri-Ratcliffe does have her sentence extended and Johnson’s position is no longer tenable for even May’s self-preservation. Whilst much has been framed about it being about May’s political survival, its definitely not just her whose future is in doubt. Who was the ‘dead wood’, that young Tories demanded be ditched in a reshuffle to bring in young blood? Either way, Gove has firmly hitched his wagon to Johnson's effectively repeating Johnson's dismissal of Zagheri-Ratcliffe's case.

Anyway another week and another set of high political drama is a foregone conclusion.

A round up of other developments this week:

Tory Party / Government

1. May announces intention to enshrine Brexit leaving date in law to force rebels to tow the line. This has many implications, not least tax related and putting more pressure on the UK government. It’s generally regarded as a desperate move by anyone sane.
2. The Impact Assessments were a dogs dinner that was done at the last minute, and were not worth the paper they were written on. There was no detail to them.
3. Priti Patel’s –sacking—resignation after having undocumented and unauthorised meetings with a series of Israel ministers. And then lying about it.
4. Penny Mordaunt, who lied about the UK not having a veto to stop Turkey joining the EU, replaced Patel.
5. Damien Green Porn. Another ex-policeman is backing the story that it was found on his computer despite Green’s denials.
6. The ongoing Zagheri-Ratcliffe story with Iran and Johnson’s gaff and none apology
7. Photograph of Johnson with ‘The Professor’ Misfud has been found. This links Johnson to how events in the US might pan out. If there are lots more revelations in the Mueller inquiry about him, then that might reflect on Johnson and make him subject to some difficult questions. Politically this might be problematic for Johnson.
8. Claims that the whips office leaked the name of someone who reported allegations against Nigel Evans which occurred 6 months after Evans had been cleared of rape and the sexual assault of six men
9. Suspended Tory MP Charlie Elphicke has complained that he is yet to be informed of what he has been accused of.
10. Young Tory MPs issue threat to May that she brings in young blood and gets rid of ‘dead wood, who do nothing but screw up’. Give her until the New Year to do so.
11. 40 Tories apparently ready to no confidence May.
12. Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll reveals a very small percentage of people want a no deal situation despite all the noise of it being a good idea.
13. Lord Ashcroft mentioned in the Paradise papers. Reported as domiciled in Belize despite assurances given to parliament that he would give up his non-dom status and pay tax in the UK as a Lord.

Parliament / Opposition both inside and outside parliament
14) May facing a possible revolt over Universal Credit. MPs due to vote on reducing wait times.
15) Talk that there are enough Tory Rebels prepared to back a Dominic Grieve amendment to force a meaningful vote on the Brexit Deal.
16) May under increasing pressure from business leaders to make a deal after a meeting with them at no. 10.
17) Lots of distraction in the Paradise Papers generally which raises the question over the power and influence of the super rich versus the poor. This plays well to Labour’s narrative and against the idea of a low tax post Brexit Britain.
18) Lord Kerr, author of the a50 clause states that May has misled the public and insists that it is reversible.
19) New Money Laundering and Sanctions Bill in the Lords. Government looking to omit 4th EU directive on tax avoidance. Naturally raises questions about whether UK would adopt new rules due to come into force the week after Brexit Day.
20) Money Laundering Bill also has lots of overlap with immigration and home office operations, raising some rather sinister questions over who could be affected and why. Potential for abuse seems to be huge.
21) Leave leaning Cornwall and Grimsby seeking special status in the face of Brexit – in line with remaining to preserve business / economic interests
22) Suicide of Welsh Assembly Labour member who was under investigation for sexual harassment
23) A Labour MP accuses the already suspended fellow Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins of inappropriate behaviour.

EU
24) Ireland demands the UK stays in the customs union.
25) Brexit talks have not progressed at all despite apparently being speeded up. Barnier saying that progress in December only possible if UK makes moves on the settlement deal. Prospect of stage two being delayed until March being raised. This leaves just 7 months to come to a deal, which plays to the No Deal Crowd’s interests.
26) EU believe the UK are not working in the best interests of the UK and there is a failure by May and Davis to understand the process or what No Deal will mean.
27) EU signalling that there is no bespoke transition. Only available options ae EEA or EFTA fudges.
28) Increasing view in Brussels that No Deal likely. EU think May hasn’t got the authority to come to a deal and its easier for her to drag UK off the cliff. Though they have doubts she will survive much longer.

World
29) Trump sides with Putin above the US Intelligence Community over the Russian election interference. On Veterans Day.
30) US’s Wilbur Ross said UK will have to dump European food safety standards and that losing our passporting rights to the EU would harm our interests with the US.
31) Developments in Lebanon, with it being said that Saudi Arabia said to have declared war. Many would consider this to be a proxy war against Iran. Crown Prince has purged political opponents including several with significant Wall Street interests. Eight died in a helicopter crash.
32) Large scale far right march in Poland as part of their Independence Day.

Thanks again Red

Interesting odds from Ladbrokes for various events

For Foreign Sec on 1 Jan 2018, they have Boris as 1/3 favourite, with Gove in second place on 12/1

JR-M is still the 6/1 favourite for next Tory party leader (Boris is next on 7/1, jointly with David Davis)

BUT

Jeremy Corbyn is the favourite for next PM at 3/1, with JR-M at 7/1 and Boris and D Davis tied again at 8/1 (Gove is right down the list at 25/1)

2018 is the 7/4 favourite for Year that TM will be replaced (they have 2017 at 5/1 and 2019 at 15/8)

And on Brexit:

• no deal by April 2019 is 6/4
• UK still in the EU in 2020 is 7/2; and
• another referendum before the end of 2019 is 5/1

Maybe other read this last Sunday - but I missed it with all the UK goings on !

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/nov/04/robert-mueller-donald-trump-russia-manafort-gates-papadopoulos

Manafortt*, who served as Trump’s campaign chairman for five months, and his business associate Rick Gates, who also played a role in the campaign,
were indicted on 12 counts including conspiracy against the US, conspiracy to launder money, acting as an unregistered foreign agent, making false statements and failing to report foreign bank and financial accounts.

others

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/12/the-guardian-view-on-the-trade-bill-bad-law-bad-plan
The Guardian view on the trade bill: bad law; bad plan
Editorial
Another shoddy power grab exposes ministers’ contempt for parliament and fear of proper Brexit debate

In practice, not much can be achieved on that front before the UK’s end-state arrangements with the EU are settled. But a legal framework is needed in advance. That is the function of the trade bill that was published last week. It attracted little attention when Westminster was distracted by other scandals, but it is a document of paramount importance.

Like the withdrawal bill that continues its passage through the Commons this week, Dr Fox’s trade blueprint relies heavily on “Henry VIII powers” – effectively granting ministers the power to write law behind parliament’s back. It envisages an “appropriate authority” implementing legal changes and future agreements “by regulations”. That is a coded way of saying that Dr Fox reserves the right to do whatever he likes without pesky MPs getting in the way.

The bill was published just 24 hours after the deadline for submissions to a formal consultation, suggesting that Dr Fox was not interested in what businesses, trade unions and other affected parties have to say on the subject. That is consistent with the government’s wider approach to the terms of Brexit. It begins with ideology and proceeds with disregard for dissent. So if a wide-ranging market-access agreement with the US requires a bonfire of safety regulations and social protections – as the Trump administration has signalled it would – Dr Fox does not want to give parliament any means of obstruction.

services.parliament.uk/bills/2017-19/trade.html
Link to the bill.

So that's the EU withdrawal bill, the Trade Bill and the Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill to keep eyes on. All three contain a huge amount of reliance on Henry VIII powers.

Thanks red.

Things are looking even bleaker for Nazanin

Beth Rigby‏*@BethRigby*

Richard Ratcliffe's statement about his wife's physical health.

Thanks for the new thread, Red.

Poor Nazanin. I hope something happens soon so she can come home.

190,000 people in 5 days have signed the petition for BJ to stand down.
He should. We will never be able to trust him.
Hopefully leaving the FO wouldn't make him more likely to end up as PM.

www.change.org/p/boris-step-down-as-foreign-secretary

Thank you for the new thread

Is the Gove / Johnson letter real?! I took my eyes off the news for one day to fully concentrate on my DS and missed the next phase of the Tory civil war?!

Apparently John Redwood is advising investors to take their money elsewhere:

www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2017/11/12/british-lawmaker-advises-investors-to-take-their-money-out-of-the-uk/#5280dd634c1e

In an op-ed in the Financial Times, the Chief Global Strategist for Charles Stanley, John Redwood, advises investors to remove their money from the United Kingdom. “Time to look further afield as the UK economy hits the brakes”, says his headline.

Thanks as always Red

Talking down much?

Wow. I despise John Redwood even more now. And I didn't think that was possible. I hope this is picked up on in a major way and he is made to answer questions. Mind you the leavers will find some reason why it was just fine for him to do this. Its Orwellian the kind of doublethink that's engaged in. Apparently James Dyson's comments this morning are good news? Even though he's not planning to manufacture his new car in this country. I despair.

John Redwood reminds me of a malignant lump himself. He metastasised long ago and the country is under palliative care as a result. I'm not a great fan of Wokingham either [pokes tongue out]

I don't remember John Major resigning seeming like a turning point, really. No, the rebels couldn't find anyone who looked faintly plausible to stand against him, but at the time all it seemed to do was quiet down some of the interviews for a few weeks. Maybe that was worth it. Oh God, these unconscionable bastards have fucked up public life for THIRTY YEARS. Probably more than that. I suppose it is really hard to spout platitudes about European cooperation if you genuinely believe that platitudes about Britain's great trading nature [hollow laugh] are true.

Yes, how do we get this information about Redwood out there further. I would say enough to cause him embarassment, but I don't think he would know what the word was.

I'm curious as to who leaked the letter from Boris and Gove to May. At first sight it seems that it wouldn't be in anyone's interests to leak it as it doesn't reflect well on any of them.

I think my money is on Boris and Gove as if they wanted to push May into a hard Brexit they could do so verbally. Committing their instructions to writing increases the chance of it becoming public and provable, which makes me think that that's what they really want.

It is staggering that Boris and Gove are in cahoots again. How can they possibly trust each other?

Wow. I despise John Redwood even more now. And I didn't think that was possible. I hope this is picked up on in a major way and he is made to answer questions. Mind you the leavers will find some reason why it was just fine for him to do this. Its Orwellian the kind of doublethink that's engaged in. Apparently James Dyson's comments this morning are good news? Even though he's not planning to manufacture his new car in this country. I despair.

Of course it is good news. They're preaching the gospel of Brexit. Allow the good news into your life and rejoice!

I googled "Charles Stanley John Redwood" as I was convinced there must be some mistake - but, no, he actually is as big an idiot as suspected, and a hypocrite to boot .

Thanks for the new thread.

lalalonglegs Googling him was the first thing I did too. Unbelievable, isn’t it?

I too wondered if it was another Redwood and that it was just a coincidence, but no. I am still waiting for him to tell us what family car can be purchased which is from a wholly British owned manufacturer.

Can’t think of any UK owned manufacturers of family cars - only specialist cars like Morgans, Westfields, Chesils etc. Not very practical or affordable for most.

That's so true Driventodespair

useful place mat king

You can't think of any UK own family car makers - nor could Redwood, but it didn't stop him spouting about it. Why the electorate of Wokingham return him to Parliament is beyond me.