Westministenders: The Tory Civil War – The Knives Are Out Again. A Big Battle Looms.

[RedToothBrush]

Today has seen the publication of a story about how Johnson and Gove are holding May hostage in a ‘soft coup’ and have made various demands over what they want for a hard Brexit. The letter which was for May’s and Barwell’s eyes only has some how leaked. Don’t forget how Gove has just joined the Brexit Cabinet.

It comes at a time, when the Observer is also leading with an editorial demanding Johnson goes over his handling of the Nazarin Zagheri-Ratcliffe case as well as his long list of poorly judged comments which have had diplomatic consequences and another newspaper is leading with a story about how 40 Tories are ready to no-confidence May.

It all smacks of a personal battle between May and Johnson to govern the party, which has been playing out publicly for some time, most noticeable in the parallel Tory party conference leadership speeches and Johnson’s freelancing.

Johnson also seems to be potentially caught up, with what happens in the Mueller investigation due to a photo and lying about having met Misfud which could be politically damaging.

Priti Patel’s –sacking-- resignation also fits in neatly with the story. The Foreign Office were not informed and there is the curious side story that May DID know various details but told Patel to keep quiet, so not to embarrass the FCO. Or more to the point, be seen to be undermining Johnson.

Whether this is true or not we don’t know. It does have implications if its true, but it also says something if its not too. Why leak the story at all? Once again its about the Johnson v May dynamic.

As it stands, if Gove and Johnson have been leading May then why would they decide to ditch her and go for power without her?
Notably Gove has the best satisfaction scores of the Cabinet amongst Tories on Conservative Home too. He has had a lot of favourable comments over his statements over pesticides. The pair seem to have put differences aside and are working together. And May has become more and more of a liability. Johnson, also came second favourite to be Tory leader amongst Tories (if you discount don’t knows and none of the aboves). Maybe they fancy their chances…

Or it’s a last ditch attempt to cling on to that power as threats that Johnson might finally get the boot – if Zagheri-Ratcliffe does have her sentence extended and Johnson’s position is no longer tenable for even May’s self-preservation. Whilst much has been framed about it being about May’s political survival, its definitely not just her whose future is in doubt. Who was the ‘dead wood’, that young Tories demanded be ditched in a reshuffle to bring in young blood? Either way, Gove has firmly hitched his wagon to Johnson's effectively repeating Johnson's dismissal of Zagheri-Ratcliffe's case.

Anyway another week and another set of high political drama is a foregone conclusion.

A round up of other developments this week:

Tory Party / Government

1. May announces intention to enshrine Brexit leaving date in law to force rebels to tow the line. This has many implications, not least tax related and putting more pressure on the UK government. It’s generally regarded as a desperate move by anyone sane.
2. The Impact Assessments were a dogs dinner that was done at the last minute, and were not worth the paper they were written on. There was no detail to them.
3. Priti Patel’s –sacking—resignation after having undocumented and unauthorised meetings with a series of Israel ministers. And then lying about it.
4. Penny Mordaunt, who lied about the UK not having a veto to stop Turkey joining the EU, replaced Patel.
5. Damien Green Porn. Another ex-policeman is backing the story that it was found on his computer despite Green’s denials.
6. The ongoing Zagheri-Ratcliffe story with Iran and Johnson’s gaff and none apology
7. Photograph of Johnson with ‘The Professor’ Misfud has been found. This links Johnson to how events in the US might pan out. If there are lots more revelations in the Mueller inquiry about him, then that might reflect on Johnson and make him subject to some difficult questions. Politically this might be problematic for Johnson.
8. Claims that the whips office leaked the name of someone who reported allegations against Nigel Evans which occurred 6 months after Evans had been cleared of rape and the sexual assault of six men
9. Suspended Tory MP Charlie Elphicke has complained that he is yet to be informed of what he has been accused of.
10. Young Tory MPs issue threat to May that she brings in young blood and gets rid of ‘dead wood, who do nothing but screw up’. Give her until the New Year to do so.
11. 40 Tories apparently ready to no confidence May.
12. Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll reveals a very small percentage of people want a no deal situation despite all the noise of it being a good idea.
13. Lord Ashcroft mentioned in the Paradise papers. Reported as domiciled in Belize despite assurances given to parliament that he would give up his non-dom status and pay tax in the UK as a Lord.

Parliament / Opposition both inside and outside parliament
14) May facing a possible revolt over Universal Credit. MPs due to vote on reducing wait times.
15) Talk that there are enough Tory Rebels prepared to back a Dominic Grieve amendment to force a meaningful vote on the Brexit Deal.
16) May under increasing pressure from business leaders to make a deal after a meeting with them at no. 10.
17) Lots of distraction in the Paradise Papers generally which raises the question over the power and influence of the super rich versus the poor. This plays well to Labour’s narrative and against the idea of a low tax post Brexit Britain.
18) Lord Kerr, author of the a50 clause states that May has misled the public and insists that it is reversible.
19) New Money Laundering and Sanctions Bill in the Lords. Government looking to omit 4th EU directive on tax avoidance. Naturally raises questions about whether UK would adopt new rules due to come into force the week after Brexit Day.
20) Money Laundering Bill also has lots of overlap with immigration and home office operations, raising some rather sinister questions over who could be affected and why. Potential for abuse seems to be huge.
21) Leave leaning Cornwall and Grimsby seeking special status in the face of Brexit – in line with remaining to preserve business / economic interests
22) Suicide of Welsh Assembly Labour member who was under investigation for sexual harassment
23) A Labour MP accuses the already suspended fellow Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins of inappropriate behaviour.

EU
24) Ireland demands the UK stays in the customs union.
25) Brexit talks have not progressed at all despite apparently being speeded up. Barnier saying that progress in December only possible if UK makes moves on the settlement deal. Prospect of stage two being delayed until March being raised. This leaves just 7 months to come to a deal, which plays to the No Deal Crowd’s interests.
26) EU believe the UK are not working in the best interests of the UK and there is a failure by May and Davis to understand the process or what No Deal will mean.
27) EU signalling that there is no bespoke transition. Only available options ae EEA or EFTA fudges.
28) Increasing view in Brussels that No Deal likely. EU think May hasn’t got the authority to come to a deal and its easier for her to drag UK off the cliff. Though they have doubts she will survive much longer.

World
29) Trump sides with Putin above the US Intelligence Community over the Russian election interference. On Veterans Day.
30) US’s Wilbur Ross said UK will have to dump European food safety standards and that losing our passporting rights to the EU would harm our interests with the US.
31) Developments in Lebanon, with it being said that Saudi Arabia said to have declared war. Many would consider this to be a proxy war against Iran. Crown Prince has purged political opponents including several with significant Wall Street interests. Eight died in a helicopter crash.
32) Large scale far right march in Poland as part of their Independence Day.

Carole Cadwalladr
@carolecadwalla
Right. I have learned @TBorwick is targeting 10 MPs with these bullying ads. So far I know: @sarahwollaston @vickyford & @NickyMorgan01. Spot the connection so far? Who else? Anyone know?

According to Hammond there's no unemployment in the UK

According to Hammond there's no unemployment in the UK
Probably for the same reason that War is Peace etc

@mrjamesob
James O'Brien Retweeted Tony Gallagher
Thirteen death threats sent to @annasoubrymp’s office.

According to Hammond there's no unemployment in the UK

He understands Newspeak, doesn't he?

what rights do non citizens have in Singapore?

Nowhere near as many as citizens, for instance the right to public housing, 82% of Singapore citizens live in public housing, beneficial state healthcare and welfare insurance schemes, and education.

Singapore may be a low tax economy but it is also a high state economy rooted in confucian culture, to quote Lee Kuan Yew, the founding PM of modern Singapore "Singapore depends on the strength and influence of the family to keep society orderly and maintain a culture of thrift, hard work, filial piety, and respect for elders and for scholarship and for learning". Confucian culture requires rulers to care for their people and provide an environment of stability in which the family and wider community can thrive through their own hard work.

I think it is safe to say that were the self seeking likes of Gove and Johnson in power in any confucian society Confucius would give "the people" license to rise up and kick them out and probably not bother with just the one knife in the back but go for the full 1000

We need to understand that there are multiple threats atm.
The problem is, many of them are working together
whereas the democratic opposition is mostly unaware and disorganised.

This is the first period since the Tsars were overthrown that Russian and US leadership, in both politics & business, have so much in common;
the first time that Russia has been a fascist kleptocracy at the same time as similar unscrupulous kleptocrats have taken over the White House and the GOP

The ruthless oligarchs of Russia and the US are working together to a significant degree,
to further maximise their grab of wealth and power from ordinary people
It's all about money. Billions, even trillions.

This is to a large extent disaster capitalism at work

• US and Russian oligarchs see huge potential profit from far right states that will abolish workers' rights, state health services, laws on environmental protection laws, tax avoidance

that will want to buy masses of US weapons, maybe even start wars. Democratic states are less easy to loot so quickly.

Yes, of course the US intelligence services under Obama bugged several EU politicians.
GCHQ collaborated with them on this.
In fact this probably started during the Cold War and has been continuing through the decades since.
Not all one-sided - France used to be active in this too e.g. remember a row many years ago , before Tinternet, when the US found Air France was bugging US military and business passengers

However, BIG difference, in earlier years, neither the US nor the UK wanted to destabilise democratic European governments and replace them by the far right.
They wanted to head off problems and support stability, not subvert democratic countries in order to loot them.

The oligarchs are treating the US, UK, EU just like they treated the Middle East
And for the same reason: loot
We must not let them wreck the West in the same way.

Just had some good news on national remain group organisation. Groups are mushrooming, with lots of new alliances in NI and ROI thanks to the sun's. BJ, DD and MG's racism and ignorance.

R North summary of damage to the UK economy that would be caused by leaving the Single Market

Even WITH a deal but outside the SM - most people don't realise this

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86674

.... last year our car industry, on which 770,000 jobs directly and indirectly depend,
exported a record 1.6 million cars,
representing 12 percent of our total exports.
Of those 57 percent go to the EU, worth £40 billion.
....
every single one of those cars can only be built and exported under an EU "type approval" which, when we become a "third country", will automatically lapse.

Replacing those necessary "type approvals" with a UK equivalent that would be recognised world-wide would be a very long and complex process:
meaning that much of our car industry will grind to a halt.
....
But then the car industry is only one of several major industries which are going to be affected by Mrs May's unthinking decision to take the UK out of the Single Market.
....
not dissimilar problems will face our chemicals and pharmaceuticals industries,
with exports to the EU currently totalling £45 billion a year.
And then there is civil aviation, with exports worth £28 billion, and food worth £12 billion.
....
entirely by our own choice, we could be sleepwalking towards the greatest disaster to hit our economy since World War Two

Adding up the value of these industries, in terms of export to EU, the potential losses to the economy could be as much as £125 billion.
These five sectors, therefore, amount to more than 50 percent of our EU exports.
....
the specific problem of Third Country Operator approvals which will prevent British-registered airlines flying into Europe.
Exact losses are difficult to quantify but it has been estimated that spending by foreign tourists who arrived by air supported a £19.6 billion gross value added contribution to UK GDP.

Other enterprises that may be damaged include Formula 1 racing, horseracing and bloodstock exports,
and a wide range of manufacturing operation covering such things as ATEX equipment (equipment and protective systems intended for use in potentially explosive atmospheres), passenger lifts and cosmetics.

There is also the financial services sector

An estimate referred to in a recent House of Lords select committee report suggests that £40–50 billion of UK financial services revenues relate to the EU, with the trade surplus for financial services for 2014 at £19 billion.
As to the proportionate impact, it is difficult to estimate, but it would be fair to assert that £40-50 billion is at risk,
potentially costing the UK government £20 billion in lost revenue < tax >

The crucial point, common to all these enterprises, is that
the impacts will arises irrespective of whether we have a deal or not
....
the damage arises from leaving the Single Market
....
Martin Donnelly, the chief civil servant in Liam Fox's Department for International Trade until earlier this year...

He states that leaving the Single Market in favour of negotiating a long-winded, Canada-style trade deal
will "damage UK competitiveness and leave us with less investment, lower living standards and long queues at the border".
...
the benefits Britain enjoys from its single market membership cannot be replicated in a trade deal
....
Ivan Rogers, who warns that there is a "radical difference" between the free trade arrangement that Britain would be offered
and membership of the customs union and the single market that it was giving up.

According to Hammond there's no unemployment in the UK
Who do I complain to 're lack of payment for the last few years?

To be fair ish on Hammond, he's probably so blinkered in the theory of economics that he was thinking in terms of the "natural" rate of unemployment, which is the amount of unemployment that an economy needs in order to function and is supposed to consist of the natural churn of people between jobs and those who are unemployable. So from that perspective it is indeed "zero"

If I recall my Philips Curve correctly, there are ways to reduce the natural rate further, for example by improving regional disparities. However, this government has found an underhand innovative new way to do it through zero hours contracts and removing people from the statistics .

Muses to self: I wonder if those people who are put onto Universal Credit and required to "look" for a better paying job despite being in a job even a full time job will be included in the unemployment stats somehow I don't think so

R North also posts this important mistake by DD (& other Brexiters / Levers):

.... "senior EU official" dismisses the Brexit Secretary's assertion during his speech in Berlin that the UK should enjoy a better deal than Norway, due to its comparative size.
.....
His answer is that it is the other way round.

Norway is a fisheries and oil economy.
They are not a competitor.
The UK is a competitor.

Particularly when it comes to safeguards against various types of dumping.

[UK] Threats have been made and safeguards will have to be introduced

(paywall)* EU taskforce plans for Brexit no-deal ‘disaster’*

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/eu-taskforce-plans-for-brexit-no-deal-disaster-78bcx8b6g

The European Union has set up a taskforce to prepare for a no-deal Brexit
as officials say there is a “significant likelihood” that Britain could crash out of the bloc following a collapse of Theresa May’s government.

The Sunday Times has been given insight into confidential contingency plans by the European Commission and national authorities
showing that they would need to invest hundreds of millions of pounds in preparing for a disorderly Brexit in 2019.
< split among 27 - and orders of magnitude less than the billions the UK would need to invest >

Internal European Commission documents reveal how a “Brexit preparedness group” is planning for a worst-case scenario.

The contingency plans include disconnecting the UK from European Union security databases,
and will be shared with European governments.
.....
^The new outfit is working separately from the team of Michel Barnier,
the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, so as not to compromise his “positive agenda of working to reach a deal”, say EU officials.^

A senior Dutch official said the EU was “working to get a deal” while at the same time “preparing for a disaster.
We are looking into how many computers, parking places, customs officials we need to budget for . . .
in Dutch we call this notverband, an emergency bandage.

“It’s starting to be doubtful whether the UK government can steer the Brexit ship because the leadership is so weak.”

German government sources said the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit had now become “significant”.
Bilateral trade between the UK and Germany is worth more than €176bn a year.

“A no-deal outcome would be an irrational, systemic failure of colossal proportions
. . . but the likelihood of it is now significant and we are working to minimise cost and disruption,”
said a senior German finance ministry official.

Belgian firms are asking their government how to adjust to customs procedures for the worst-case scenario,
said a senior official from the country’s economy ministry:
“Half a year ago we were optimistic, now we are convinced that a no-deal is a likely option.”

Foreign businesses operating in Britain have received EU guidance on the need to prepare for the UK crashing out of the EU’s single market.

“It’s an extremely muddy picture of the future, and an infinitely variable one.
^The longer there is uncertainty, the tougher things get — we have decisions to make about future investment,”
said Graham Biggs of BMW.

Winand Quaedvlieg, of the Dutch employers’ federation VNO-NCW, said ^
UK companies were showing “flabbergasting complacency”^ about Brexit.
^
“It is as if chief executives can’t believe a government would cause such an economic mess
. . . but Dutch companies are preparing for the worst.”

"The oligarchs are treating the US, UK, EU just like they treated the Middle East
And for the same reason: loot
We must not let them wreck the West in the same way."

Fuck me that sounds gloomy but very interesting food for thought, too.

It's all about power and oligarchs have so much power in the current global economic and political 'system'. I have been reading these threads since the referendum and have learnt so much from all the regular posters here. I had hoped that we would brexit softly if at all.

It's not looking great now is it, and I wonder if i should pack up my dc and husband (we are a trans European family) and move to either France or Germany.

Things have been so very grim in British politics in the last year and the future seems to look so bleak for Brexit Britain.

I wonder if remaining (western) EU countries are a safer place to raise the dc especially if some want to turn the UK into some sort of tax haven with zero accountability for those who govern us.

Time to cut our losses?

I don’t know about the veracity of these links but this seemed interesting

Liam
@LiamByrneMP
1/. Ok, by popular demand, here's a quick thread on what you should know about Legatum, #HardBrexit and...Russia

2/. Legatum has become one of the most influential think tanks in '#HardBrexit' circles - and is backed by a secretive New Zealand billionaire

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/unrivalled-access-of-secretive-billionaire-christopher-chandler-funds-legatum-institute-885pb9vjc

3/. Legatum's Special Trade Enquiry recommended #HardBrexit - leaving the Customs Union and Single Market. www.li.com/programmes/economics-of-prosperity/special-trade-commission)

4/. So: who backs Legatum? Well, it's funded by Mr Chandler, a New Zealand billionaire, who lives in Singapore and works in Dubai:

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86556

5/. Last week, @BenPBradshaw suggested the new Intelligence Select Committee make a close study of his background:

hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2017-11-16/debates/52D4EFE3-1F69-4859-9809-30812FA31FC3/IntelligenceAndSecurityCommitteeOfParliament

I also urge the ISC to look at the Legatum Institute, its relationship with the Government, and the background of its founder and main funder, Christopher Chandler. It should also consider the activities and funding of political organisations such as Conservative Friends of Russia, now renamed as the Westminster Russia Forum.

6/. Mr Chandler made a fortune in the chaos of Russia. Indeed he and his brother 'say they were the largest foreign portfolio investors in Russia

www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b150nr9k08bfxb/secrets-of-sovereign

7/. It's interesting that Mr Chandler made a new fortune working with Mr Putin's associates to re-organise GazProm, after Mr Putin's election in 2000 helping lead a boardroom coup to emplace - Alexei Miller - Mr Putin's deputy from St Petersburg days - as head of GazProm.

8/. GazProm then became VERY important to Mr Putin. @TheEconomist reports: 'As President Vladimir Putin consolidated his power in the early 2000s, he built Gazprom into a main instrument of Russia’s new state capitalism.'

www.economist.com/news/business/21573975-worlds-biggest-gas-producer-ailing-it-should-be-broken-up-russias-wounded-giant

9/. For some reason, Mr Chandler was investigated in the intelligence operation to clean up Monaco - but thankfully this found 'no evidence of wrongdoing'. Soon after Mr Chandler relocated to Dubai/ Singapore

markhollingsworth.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/monaco.pdf

Ben Bradshaw thanks for posting pain Pity they hadn't listened to red's fab thread a year ago! Grieve is on good form too.

Thread:

@PeterKGeoghegan
"IRELAND has always been John Bull's vulnerable flank." 1st line of a 2000 Michael Gove Speccie piece. Wonder if he'll say that in Dublin tomorrow?
Gove wrote a pamphlet in 2000 called Northern Ireland: the Price of Peace in which he compared the agreement to the appeasement of the Nazis in the 1930s and the condoning of the desires of paedophiles.

In 2000 in Times, Gove wrote against GFA that "The real cause of conflict in Northern Ireland has not been the British presence, but British policy to dilute that presence."

In 2000, Michael Gove in Spectator described human rights law in Northern Ireland as 'the new terror'. Yep human rights is same as terror.

Gove wrote: 'if IRA active service units have been appeased, it is only because we now have, in the equality agenda of the Belfast Agreement, another ticking timebomb primed to disrupt our business and social life - one which no disposal squad is yet equipped to decommission.'

Last July an architect of Good Friday told me Gove was a “fanatic” who would be “dangerous” for the Northern Irish peace process and North-South relations if he won the Conservative Party leadership election.

Michael Gove has written at length about how awful Good Friday agreement is, shown no sign that his mind has changed, and now is part of UK gov telling anyone who shows concern for GFA that they're hysterical scaremongers

In August 1998, writing for Times a week after Omagh bomb, Gove wrote an anti-agreement jeremiad that included gushing sections about Vincent McKenna (not saying Gove knew McKenna's evil then)

Haha in 1999 Jacob Rees Mogg - who also seems no friend of GFA- wrote in Times that "Ultimatums rarely succeed and seem unlikely to work in Northern Ireland". Is that same Rees Mogg who favours hardline no deal ultimatum to EU??

"An ultimatum also weakens the position of the negotiator who makes it. Once a deadline has been set, it limits everyone's room for manoeuvre. It crystallises the negotiating position, and takes away the freedom to make concessions." Jacob Rees Mogg, Times, 1999

Yes, it would have been so much less stressful if they’d paid heed to red’s sterling analysis many moons ago!

Unearthed
@UE
NEW: Liam Fox’s department just sent us a document by mistake. They asked for it back, but we thought we'd do a story on it instead. So here it is: a minister lobbied the Brazilian government on BP and Shell’s behalf
link: bit.ly/2hM5yBd

GeorgeMonbiot
@GeorgeMonbiot
British minister requests planet-trashing policies on behalf of #Shell and #BP. Every day the question we should ask the government is "who are you working for?"

amp.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/19/uk-trade-minister-lobbied-brazil-on-behalf-of-oil-giants

www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/michael-gove-a-fanatic-who-would-damage-peace-process-1.2710224

icantreachthepretzels that editorial from the Sun is outrageous. How dare the Irish PM defend the interests of the people snd country he was elected to represent. It is interesting that they didn't have the courage to print it in their Irish edition. I saw on Twitter thst Aaron Banks had a go as well along the lines of "who do they think they are".

And this too:
In fact there's now a remain group in 51% remain Essex.

Tim Walker
@ThatTimWalker
Mail on Sunday’s useful cut out and keep guide to the REAL mutineers

Home Office admits it is struggling to recruit staff to register EU nationals

amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/19/home-office-admits-its-struggling-to-recruit-staff-to-register-eu-nationals

Home Office officials have privately admitted the department is having problems increasing its immigration staffing levels as part of its Brexit preparations and may have to recruit Polish and other eastern Europeans to help register the 3 million EU nationals in Britain.

"Home Office officials have privately admitted the department is having problems increasing its immigration staffing levels as part of its Brexit preparations and may have to recruit Polish and other eastern Europeans to help register the 3 million EU nationals in Britain."

And these Poles and others are going to come from where? Many are going back home.

This thread is interesting for a list of potential tories on a Brexiters' target list. And a US registered company called 'Brexit Realities.com'

@carolecadwalla
Fascinating. Are these all "traitor" MPs @tborwick is targeting?

@J0nKn1ght
There's more to the site than it seems. The navigation is hidden in the home page. Try the following urls:

If it's true