Where do you realistically think we go from here?

[Bearbehind]

So Amber Rudd says 'no deal is unthinkable' and David Davis says the opposite.

DD also says we'd only agree to a transition period if the terms of our deal were known before hand.

The EU are still insisting the 3 priorities are addressed before talks can move to trade so basically we're at a stand off.

Something has to give at some point.

Regardless of what you want to happen, what do you think will actually happen.

I think we will walk away from the talks, all hell will break loose when the repercussions of that come to the fore and we'll end up staying in the EU in some capacity but in a much weaker position than before.

Bowlingshoes, yes there clearly was an element of speaking at cross purposes, but you didnt specify 'imports' in your earlier comment, and considering the line of discussion, it was a rather subtle flip to the other side.

So, lets flip it over and come at this from 'imports', and specifically the point you are now making, imports from non-eu suppliers.

A requirement of our current EU club membership is that currently we have to verify ALL imports abide by EU approved regs. (Though clearly we dont manage this, see squishys 'online chinese purchase through the post' conundrum)

We have to also charge the EU set tariffs, and charge the EU set tax. Thats ALL imports, including those from Germany, France wherever, as in reality, a German supplier is just as capable as a Kenyan supplier of cutting corners. EU membership does not mean, a German supplier has the right to ignore everything, if he sells within the EU to a French retailer.

The first point is, the UK, and the UK alone, own that obligation under our terms of membership, on imports into the UK. We are legally obliged to ensure that all imports into our EU state, meet EU requirements. The staffing, the processes all exist in the UK to currently meet that requirement on ALL goods.

The remain argument often confuses 'free trade' with regulation free. That is not true.

My second point, is the source of those regulations. The boards who set these regulations, that the EU then adopt, on the whole stand alone from EU membership. This is something that has been encouraged for donkeys years, by the WTO, to bring up the standard of goods world wide.

Your 'theoretical' argument, is that for some reason, the UK, the day after brexit will sack all staff who work in this area, and remove all regulatory requirements. Why would they do that? We cant legally have a set of regulations for one source of goods (like the eu) and another set of regs for another source of goods (kenya). That in itself is illegal and flies in the face of all international trade agreements, the WTO etc, as 'preferential' treatment. So like tax, whatever regs the UK applies, has to apply to ALL imports, exactly as they do today.

So take the Dyson position for example. If we allow higher powered hoovers in the UK, Germany, France etc must have the same 'freedom' to sell higher powered hoovers to UK suppliers.
Its not for the UK to say, Germany you can only sell us low powered ones. Anyone world wide, could sell high powered ones, including a German manufacturer, into the UK. He just cant sell them in Germany.

Its alarmist, and unfounded, to say the UK are ineffect going regulation free post brexit, and mis-understands the existing import requirements and who 'owns' enforcement of those requirements.

Mother the BoE, according to Carney, reckons inflation has peaked which implies the full effect of the devaluation is already priced in.

brown I may well have to disengage from these threads for fear of analysis paralysis while doing my supermarket shop. Neat illustration re my earlier comments on the effect of market (mis)management of food prices. 1/2L of milk costs almost the same as 2L of milk. The price of butter goes up every week. My favourite local cheddar is unchanged in price. Imported French camembert is getting cheaper every week.

On the "it is the poor who suffer from price rises" oft spouted by Osbornomics remoaners it is worth remembering that pensioners are insulated from inflation. The two most significant impacts on the low waged are benefits cuts and public sector pay freeze / service cuts on one side and minimum wage on the other. The government could easily fully mitigate any Brexit effect and indeed since the vote is now under increasing pressure to undo the damage done by GO's 2015 budget.

The government could easily fully mitigate any Brexit effect

How and why?

There was no appetite to do so before the referendum, what has changed now?

I truly do not understand this optimism over what Brexit will achieve when there's nothing but 'hope' to indicate it might happen.

No-one was even challenging Osbornomics pre-ref they all are now.

Mean unearned income in the UK is £3,000 but median is £34. That gives plenty of room to absorb even Project Fear without affecting the have nots.

the BoE, according to Carney, reckons inflation has peaked which implies the full effect of the devaluation is already priced in.

That’s not quite correct - Carney said ne expected that prices would continue to rise in October and November, but that it was anticipated due to the fall in the value of the pound.

Mean unearned income in the UK is £3,000 but median is £34. That gives plenty of room to absorb even Project Fear without affecting the have nots.

What does that have to do wth Brexit?

The 'haves' will do alright whatever happens, they're not suddenly going to give it all up in favour of equality.

"It's alarmist, and unfounded, to say the UK are ineffect going regulation free post brexit"

Reducing regulations is something that lots of Leavers said would be a great thing about leaving EU, that life would be wonderful with fewer regs. You can't play this argument both ways, either regulations are grand protection to keep or losing them is great prospect.

About regulations... I think they must be like MPs. Many people say all MPs are lazy out-of-touch crooks ... except their own MP who seems honest, friendly, works hard. Just like the EU imposes all sorts of outrageous, ridiculous, economically-hindering regulations (including via regulatory agencies), except the few regs that I know a lot about which are actually pretty reasonable rules & not too onerous at all to follow.

Still not going anywhere near 20% randomly

But it is alarmist lljkk. Remainers often quote the suggestion that we would loose employment and environmental regulations. I, for one certainly wouldn't advocate that. The types of regulations that may, in future be changed would likely be the ones like the recent reduction of hoover power. It will just take longer to clean a carpet and it will save so little energy that it's not really worth it in my opinion. Other things include the standardization of forms used by government bodies that are not fit for our purposes and regulations in the building trade that do not relate to our building style or traditions. We may well increase our standards for instance in the transportation of live animals.

howabout I haven’t seen anyone suggesting 20% inflation.

Although having said that, producer price inflation almost hit 20% back in January.

Theresa Villiers on the Andrew Marr show this morning. She is introducing a Private Members' Bill next week to start the process to ban live animal transport.

corcory wrt to vacuum cleaners, higher wattage does not necessarily equate to better performance. There is no ban on vacuum cleaners that suck powerfully, just on ones that are energy inefficient.

We'll all be stowing away in lorries to Poland for jobs

There are still no practical solutions are there?

Unless we get to maintain frictionless trade, with no need for a border in NI, we still have no workable plan do we?

I remember 25 yrs of Brexit Alarmist rants about "sovereignty."

Live export of animals. I assume moving animals around inside the UK or taking Fido along a nice holiday in Majorca might still be legal.

Our current Dyson is ridiculously loud but never had as much suck in it as the (smaller motor) Dyson I bought in 1999.

The increase in prices because of the currency exchange rate will take a while to filter through as many goods are bought months ahead.

lljkk on the movement of live animals, that’s a really poor comment to make. If Brexit means the UK can ban the moving of live animals long distances to slaughter then that is an absolute positive. They are not commodities to be treated in the same way as other (non-living) goods.

Absolutely Random.

er, the bill that TVilliers sponsors is about export, not all movement, that's all I meant.

This says that movement of animals is a "devolved" issue. And "Currently, national governments may adopt more stringent rules than the EU animal welfare legislation—"

Do you guys want to post a different link that says EU is stopping UK from banning long-distance movement of live animals?

lljk, youre just not quite getting it. Never mind.

In the meantime, I did indeed think about a 'plan' this evening, then I saw this

http://metro.co.uk/2017/10/22/british-expats-will-be-allowed-to-stay-in-spain-even-if-theres-no-brexit-deal-7018350/

and realised we still dont need one

I did indeed think about a 'plan' this evening, then I saw this and realised we still dont need one

And then you try and argue you're not planning on every thing staying the same.

This is the kind of arrogance that astounds me.

but it may become impractical for them to stay there if the health care costs are no longer reciprocated.

No problem for those who are no longer resident in the UK - as long as they have a British, pref. English sounding name they just come back and sponge off the NHS to which they are no longer entitled to, using a relative's address. Meanwhile UK residents with foreign sounding names have to prove their entitlement.