Where do you realistically think we go from here?

[Bearbehind]

So Amber Rudd says 'no deal is unthinkable' and David Davis says the opposite.

DD also says we'd only agree to a transition period if the terms of our deal were known before hand.

The EU are still insisting the 3 priorities are addressed before talks can move to trade so basically we're at a stand off.

Something has to give at some point.

Regardless of what you want to happen, what do you think will actually happen.

I think we will walk away from the talks, all hell will break loose when the repercussions of that come to the fore and we'll end up staying in the EU in some capacity but in a much weaker position than before.

for bowling's post.

I imagine the thing about EU regulatory agencies is: you log in to put data into them. Guess who the sysadmin is who controls login access? Hint: it ain't the UK

How much will UK pay to have ongoing partnership in each agency?

Plenty of people have said otherwise, like the ones I mentioned above! For many supporters of Brexit, changing regulations on goods is the raison d'etre of Brexit. They may have grudgingly agreed to abide by the regulations for a short transitional period, but a low-reg economy is exactly what they want long-term. Or does James Dyson not actually want to sell his high-powered vacuum cleaners in the UK??

I appreciate you have a very clear vision for your version of Brexit Caroline but you must see it is not the same as many others' visions.

Facebook have found the ideal Christmas present for a rainbows and unicorns Brexiter like me.

www.stevenbrownart.co.uk/collections/she-who-is-brave/products/she-who-is-brave-artwork-designed-glass-chopping-board

Not sure why we are still pondering no deal scenarios? Even Juncker says it's all going to be fine now. Bit surprised he didn't say "bring it on"
when TM threatened him with Boris.

Not sure why we are still pondering no deal scenarios? Even Juncker says it's all going to be fine now.

Leavers and a Remainers really do interpret things very differently; where has Juncker said that?

Our definition of 'fine' is still the cake and eat it scenario and he certainly hasn't agreed to that.

@Carolinesbeanies

Lets just say the UK left without a deal, and thrived. Just consider a tiny possibility that that may happen.

Glad you agree it's tiny.

Where does that leave the EU and its efforts to stop an exodus of states out the door?... The EU cannot allow that to happen.

I can't share that hostile adversarial view of EU intentions. Interesting that you easily recognise the huge power of EU in these negotiations. That we are the much weaker negotiator.

The rhetoric from Brussels will slowly change. It's a very pragmatic organisation, that's true. That's why they want to establish principles rather than specifics (about our exit bill), until as late as possible in the Brexit negotiations.

I'm just going to park this here for you bear. Makes Caroline and I sound positively Brexitsceptic.

facts4eu.org/news.shtml

LIke I said before, we shouldn't talk so much about tariffs. Though easier to understand than passporting or regulating the quality of imports/exports including exported and imported services.

"Leave means Leave" said (radio5 other night) that under WTO rules, imported food prices in UK would fall by 20%. Great! Except... what if those are foods that UK also grows. Will we provide 20% subsidies to UK farmers? Or only allow duty to reduce to 0% on crops we don't grow much of in UK. So not many of our foods get price reduced, after all.

Great news for coffee drinkers, I suppose.

Facts4eu.org, by its own admission, is not a neutral information source.

Bowlingshoes, I give up.

Perhaps a remainer can explain to you why the EU charge set tariffs, tax, set rules and regs for suppliers, ALL suppliers, wishing to sell anything into the EU.

That is not Brexit. That is nothing anywhere near Brexit.

Suppliers, from anywhere, in order to sell into the EU have to meet these requirements and pay those taxes. That is not Brexit.

What you are confused with, that I utterly blame on baseless uninformed rhetoric on here from remainers, is that EU regs WILL ALWAYS apply to those suppliers selling goods to the EU, but post brexit WONT APPLY to suppliers that dont. The UK sell more to non-eu countries, than eu countries.

If Malaysia say, "for you to sell chocolate to us you must pay a Malaysian 5% import tax and it must not contain nuts", thats then what a UK chocolate seller agrees. Its Malaysias rules. UK seller then sells. The Malaysian import tax is paid, and he makes sure no nuts are in it and puts a sticker on saying 'no nuts'.

The EU is the same.

I cant spell it out any clearer. So when you say, but everyone says we wont have to meet rules and regs anymore, youve simply been led down a remainer path that conflates non-eu suppliers with eu-suppliers, and ignores the fundamental fact that the UK wont have to apply said EU rules, regs and taxes to goods coming into the UK, as we're not in the club anymore and not legally obliged to charge their pre-set rates. We will, in all probability charge less import taxes.

Theoretically, for example, VAT is an EU tax. The the day after brexit, we will have no legal obligation to charge or collect VAT. You, me, and every shopper in the UK could be 20% better off on everysingle thing we buy, whether its made in or supplied from the EU or not. Thats an instant example of what EU club membership means. In it, you pay and must charge VAT on everything. Its an EU rule. Out of the club, you dont.

(And those pedants wishing to provide a list of VAT free goods in response to this, also miss the point completely. No wonder Bowlingshoes is confused).

OK, maybe I'm being thick, (has been a long time since my economics 101 at uni) but I think we must be talking at complete cross purposes then Caroline. Your post above seems contradictory to what I had understood from your previous posts. When I raised the issue of the UK not having the time or expertise to create its own regulatory bodies for imports, you said that wasn't a problem because we would be maintaining all existing EU regulations. You are now saying that these regulations won't need to apply to any suppliers from other countries that are only importing to us, not the EU. Apologies if I have misunderstood, but that is what I have taken from your post above.

If that is what you are saying, then that is the point I have been trying to make all along. My concerns have always been that 1) We don't have our own regulatory bodies at the moment covering many areas as they are all tied up with the EU. Who will be monitoring standards of goods that we import from other countries?

2. The EU has very stringent standards regarding food safety, technical standards, the environment. I don't want to see us accepting a lowering of these standards.

Surely the issue is that if UK standards are no longer identical to those of the EU, and if there is divergence between the standards enforced on UK manufacturers and importers, and those enforced in the EU, then at that point a soft border becomes impossible.

The EU will impose border checks unless it can be certain that all goods circulating in the UK comply with EU regulations.

Border checks are far more of an issue than tariffs.

Cannot get my head around anyone trying to discuss farmer profitability or food prices in relation to terms of trade. If that were how it worked then there would be no point to the CAP. From memory CAP takes up about 70% (?) of EU budget. When the UK Leaves it takes back control of this in relation to our own farmers and the changes in administration of it will be what set production, prices, imports, exports and land management policy surely? (As an aside when Chris Grayling said we would grow more of our own I assume he was implying we may do rather less pointless exporting and reimporting the same products but just home consume).

Never said or sought to imply facts4EU was unbiased and neither does it. The problem is not commentators stating their position and defending it but rather those claiming impartiality / neutrality when they are anything but and then spouting unsubstantiated biased nonsense.

Border checks are far more of an issue than tariffs.

misti you will not get a sensible response to that here; anything that is a problem is ignored.

I'm still waiting to find out out why other countries wouldn't expect frictionless trade if it were continue for us when we're no longer in the SM.

Tax is one of the things EU is most diverse on. Different countries have different tax regimes (rates).

Standardisation of product quality has been genius & makes the EU much stronger and reduces between-country friction. As well as guaranteeing minimal safety & health standards, it means members don't undermine each other economically.

My son (fierce Leaver) always insists that British product standards are higher than EU's... but nobody else ever says that.

It's the phenomenon of our age, isn't it. The age of believing what you want to believe. The age of stupid. It feels like a tectonic shift.

My understanding of the rules and regulations thing is this. People like Dyson want to be able to produce more powerful hoovers to sell in the UK and any non EU country that their regulations allow. The fact that we allow more powerful hoovers in the future won't impact on the lower power hoovers sold to the EU. Any rules and regs we decide to change will be for UK consumed goods or services entirely in house - like building regs, plumbing and electrical regs. Things that we don't, and never have exported. Why would we accept raw materials that don't conform to EU regs that would mean that the goods made which we might want to export to the EU then don't meet their standards? Why would we do that?
I was at a meeting recently where we, as service users were having problems with the implementation of an assessment done be social workers. The head of social work told us that the forms now had to be in an EU standardised format but because it didn't fit the purpose the SWers were also using the old forms so doubling their work!!
We would keep the same regulations as the EU when we first leave but as we go along we may decide that we want to change some, What's so difficult to understand about that.

corcory It is not difficult and my understanding of the regulations is the same as yours. Perhaps I wasn't clear enough when I posted upthread but Caroline seems to have misunderstood what I was saying.

My concern, and one that I have seen expressed by others, is not regarding imports of materials that we would use for exported products. It is that those eventually in charge of setting UK regulations on imported goods from outside the EU will set them to a lower standard than currently, eg allowing cheaper meat products from the USA that contain hormones or chemicals that would not be permitted under EU rules as part of a preferential trading deal with the US, who will be looking for greater access to our markets. This would have a big impact on the UK farming sector as well as on the consumer.

Or in an extreme "no-deal/WTO" scenario, we could be obliged to accept goods on the minimal WTO standards (which are less stringent than the EU's) until we have reorganised our WTO schedules and created adequate customs and regulatory infrastructure of our own. This would only be a problem for goods arriving directly from a non-EU supplier, and I'm not knowledgeable enough to say how much this would be likely to be, but I'm quite certain there would be people who would spot a business opportunity to import, for example, low-standard baby toys from China cheaply and then sell them in the UK market.

You, me, and every shopper in the UK could be 20% better off on every single thing we buy, whether its made in or supplied from the EU or not.

Not if the value of the sterling has also lost 20%.

cailleach the devaluation of 20% from 1.40 to 1.10 translated to a max 1.5% price increase (our 3% inflation - Eurozone rate of 1.5%). MN is the only place I see further exchange rate deterioration being discussed these days.

Has anyone else had a look in their cupboards to see where your food came from, Do you suppose if I kept shopping in Lidl that I'd get to keep the EU standards that I prefer without having to tediously check labels for origin?

I was watching a Brexit video last night where a Leaver was talking up how great it would be for UK exports if ££ lost even more value. There are people talking about exchange rates. They'll try to make a positive out of anything :).

We would keep the same regulations as the EU when we first leave but as we go along we may decide that we want to change some, What's so difficult to understand about that."

Not difficult to understand at all. But worrying because it will be the government changing them, and they are unlikely to change them to tighten environmental controls and give workers more rights.........

how great it would be for UK exports if ££ lost even more value.

I’d be less UnBeLeaving about the whole enterprise if there wasn’t so much of this “heads I won, tails you lose” special pleading going on.

I can understand the “£ down more, more competitive pricing, exports up more, therefore Yay Brexit” argument (leaving aside whether this actually comes up pass or not).

I can just about get my head around the “£ down but it was meant to be, and somehow magically there’s no effect on our cost of living it’s all in your imagination” point of view.

But, damn my lack of faith and depth of expert economic knowledge, I can’t get those two positions to simultaneously line up.