Where do you realistically think we go from here?

[Bearbehind]

So Amber Rudd says 'no deal is unthinkable' and David Davis says the opposite.

DD also says we'd only agree to a transition period if the terms of our deal were known before hand.

The EU are still insisting the 3 priorities are addressed before talks can move to trade so basically we're at a stand off.

Something has to give at some point.

Regardless of what you want to happen, what do you think will actually happen.

I think we will walk away from the talks, all hell will break loose when the repercussions of that come to the fore and we'll end up staying in the EU in some capacity but in a much weaker position than before.

Good to know I am at least consistent in my iconoclasm Karlos

Great post Captain. Exactly what I was getting at but much more direct and eloquent.

But at least if all these foreign footballers have to go home, then English teams might bother to promote home grown talent, and who knows, might even be able to field a decent team for the world cup. One which actually manages to qualify or gets to the knockout stage would be good.

One which actually manages to qualify or gets to the knockout stage would be good Or are we talking about women's football?
Great post captain

We didn't need to leave the EU to do that. See the German model.

Though it will vastly effect club football and international revenue. Although it's likely exceptions will be made for them which will result in no change at a national team level.

Love the fact that wanting people to be paid a wage they can live on is akin to communism.

@fakenamefornow, I've got the same questions going on.
Everything I read about WTO membership is alarming, it's dealing with the EU notched up 5 levels.
I can remember the USA getting furious at WTO in the 1980s.
There aren't enough WTO arbiters who settle disputes, so there is a very huge backlog of cases to hear (this situation is expected to get much worse).
A country enters WTO on a basic set of rules & then negotiates variations for better trading terms.
The variations have to be agreed by representatives of all WTO members (around 160 of them). Lots of concessions to make it all happen, in what are called .
WTO rules don't let UK set own tariffs completely.
WTO rules affect what taxes UK can set on many types of goods.
WTO rules affect how UK must label its good sold to domestic consumers.
WTO requires UK to produce scientific evidence to justify many possible practices.
UK would need lots of people working at WTO to negotiate & respond.
There are no WTO rules to cover services, and no product standardisations.

Of all the Brexiter bad ideas, "reverting to WTO rules" has to be one of the worst.

llijk out of the frying pan and into the fire then. How did these people get a job as an MP in the first place? The mind boggles.

On jolyonmaugham qc twitter feed tonight there's a leaked treasury report outlining what a disaster wto rules would be (inc an annual loss of £45 billion in public sector receipts.)

Nevertheless, I completely accept that Most leavers are not affected by these fears and are looking forward to March 2019 with mounting excitement and joy, (in case anyone suspects I think otherwise.)

Warning: it's a pretty grim read.

My brainwave this morning is get Govey in as PM, let him & his poor people skills preside over this imploding disaster, trigger an election, we'll get to rescind A50 late next yr after all.

Sadly, that is the "best case:" scenario I can come up with.

off to watch Brexit legal videos on Youtube now.

lljkk Thank you. Do the powers that be not know this, or think differently? Why do the think WTO is a viable option? Is it just more Leave lies?

Humpsfor20yards Is there a link to the Twitter feed?

fakenamefornow :
twitter.com/JolyonMaugham
@JolyonMaugham
So a wee bird has dropped into my inbox what a major newspaper has described as a report from HM Treasury. THREAD

I think I found the article about the leaked report, its from last year?

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hard-brexit-could-cost-66bn-a-year-phpmh6fcd

Ah time travel again. This time, Jolyon Maugham, tax avoiding lawyer and very generous with other peoples money, is strangely re circulating rather mysteriously, what was indeed issued in April 2016. Unfortunately for Jolyon, it was discredited at the time and good Ol George has remained quiet on the issue ever since. But here it is, in its unsinister public form........

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/517415/treasuryyanalysiseconomiccimpactoffeumembershippweb.pdf

and heres one response from the time......

http://www.cityam.com/239128/the-treasury-has-it-entirely-wrong-the-british-economy-would-gain-from-brexit

Perhaps dear Jolyon hasnt got over his Dublin defeat after all, but someone needs to tell him this is very old news........

https://www.ft.com/content/6100aa8e-4483-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996

Leave Alliance view of WTO option

One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government should allow it. The option should be rejected.

leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128

Oh dear lordy the bristol blogger is back. You do know this 'leave alliance' website is some sad bloke (allegedly son of a Richard North, egg expert, who apparently is the voice of Leave ) sat in his bedroom, excited by all his remainer followers on twitter? Stop teasing him, he thinks hes popular.

In the meantime, in the real world, lets not forget this.

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors

What point are you making with that link Caroline's? It points to flaws in the predictions of economists so are you suggesting that any predictions about the UK's economy WTO only rules will be inaccurate? I agree that it is impossible to predict exactly what would happen, but there are many fundamental aspects that we are aware there will be a problem with (eg, infrastructure to deal with customs checks).

However, what I found interesting (and it pains me to say it) was the quotation from Gove about how his much-derided "experts" must produce empirical evidence, not just speculation. In recent weeks, we have seen much of this evidence of the shaky state of the UK economy: higher inflation, plummeting levels of foreign investment, sluggish growth compared to similar economies. Most of these things were indeed predicted by economists before the Referendum and were of course dismissed as "Project Fear". Do we still continue to ignore economists and plough on regardless?

Hardly Strong and Stable

We have the worst possible combination in these negotiations; a weak leader that no one respects and an unfounded sense of arrogance and entitlement.

All going swimmingly eh?

There's an interview on SkyNews, tbf, with head of WTO where he talks up how the UK would do fine in WTO. He glosses over what terms UK would enter WTO on, though.

I recommend Listen to QuestionTime last night, including the phone-in afterwards, such as the impact on UK "Just-In-Time" suppliers if we don't get a deal with EU. :(

Is that just a case of him say our club is better than theirs though?

He's hardly gong to say it would be shit is he?

This is a different report Caroline. It's quite damning but hey fuck the treasury, they're just bods sitting in an office.

I think that the

Well I'm glad you're so optimistic Carolinesbeanies

I follow both Leave and Remain Facebook groups to try to give myself some sense of balance. Although the racism on the Leave site is appalling I try not to get too wound up by it, I'm sure you can tell though it does really piss me off that these people (the racists) have won. Some people do post more thoughtful stuff. In the weight of all the evidence, including what is actually happening in terms of reported numbers, I am amazed that anybody still believes leaving the EU, including WTO option, will be better for the economy. Even most Leavers I see seem to have abandoned this but see it as a price worth paying, fair enough, I think.

If the government didn't think their impact assessments were meaningful, then why are they so sensitive about them?

We have heard from everyone and his dog what they think Brexit will do to the economy. I think we are entitled to know what the experts employed by government think. Our taxes are paying for them, after all. And in 18 months we will have the opportunity to compare what really happens with what was predicted, assuming that the reports are ever released.