Where do you realistically think we go from here?

[Bearbehind]

So Amber Rudd says 'no deal is unthinkable' and David Davis says the opposite.

DD also says we'd only agree to a transition period if the terms of our deal were known before hand.

The EU are still insisting the 3 priorities are addressed before talks can move to trade so basically we're at a stand off.

Something has to give at some point.

Regardless of what you want to happen, what do you think will actually happen.

I think we will walk away from the talks, all hell will break loose when the repercussions of that come to the fore and we'll end up staying in the EU in some capacity but in a much weaker position than before.

It’s all starting to look more optimistic now, isn’t it?

Angela Merkel saying:

“...there are absolutely no signs that we can’t succeed...I have absolutely no doubt that we can reach a good result...”

Also good noises coming from other EU member countries re working on what they want re trade deals.

Faith Some of this is just PR of course. EU politicians have to sell the eventual outcome of Brexit to their constituents. The UK government has gone to great lengths to paint the EU as the unreasonable party, so I think we will see some push back on this front.

Also, there is no doubt that when trade talks eventually start, the EU will wish to go into negotiations with an agreed position, and that means doing the work up front. Doing preparatory work before the start of trade talks says nothing about when such talks might start. It's just the EU doing its homework.

He is doing really well until he gets taken over by the Big Pie Corporation

He's going to retire to the Seychelles if he does or is he the first person to have their business brought out and not get any more for it?

Now he has to mass produce his pies and he's cutting corners right, left and centre because profits are king and the bosses want to cut costs

He doesn't care, he's in the Seychelles, the Big Pie Corp are just putting in their normal cost cutting procedures and can supply items more cheaply because of their supply chain

health and safety on the factory floor puts him in danger and he doesn't earn enough to even afford any pie himself

H&S in the UK is one of the most stringent regimes in the world, (as it was prior to the EU) If you're no longer talking about the boss and an employee then she earns minimum wage and will be entitled to free top up money from the Government.

Look, Capitalism isn't perfect, far from it, but it produces pies constantly. Socialism won't produce pies constantly, there is a finite amount of pies. Whilst the people controlling capitalism are wankers, history shows what the people who control socialism are like.

One thing I like about Capitalism is that just about everyone has the chance to make a go of it and have a successful life if they put the work and effort in.

With Socialism, why bother putting the effort in if you're just going to get the same size of pie as people who collect firewood?

The point Im making Bowlingshoes, is in effect this.

www.gov.uk/government/news/pms-open-letter-to-eu-citizens-in-the-uk

This isnt new, or a new position, this was clearly stated months and months ago. But for remainers to carry on the vicious vitriol against leave voters and brexit, this assurance must be ignored. TM has had to re-issue this statement, because its being persistantly ignored. Call TM and the government what you will, but they still have the authority and the power to make such pledges. They are the ONLY authority who are able to make such a pledge. Not Junker, or Barnier, or Corbyn or Cable. The UK government.

Its the same bun fight on here with Ireland. The UK government, the NI, the Irish government, have given the assurance no hard border will be imposed. They have the authority and the power to make such pledges. Remainers prefer to ignore them.

Then you move to tariffs. (VAT, I have long stated will remain, but its a moot point here)

Its utterly ignored that for example, Tetley Tea sell into say Carrefour. They are the ones 'trading', not UK and French governments. The single market, doesnt mean all Germans or French must buy all UK stuff. Thats misconception number 1. That somehow, brexit means the UK will be sanctioned. That the UK and the EU immediately implement trade embargoes. That is fundamentally wrong.

Tetley and Carrefour then trade at their agreed costs, and those costs take into account local, national taxation etc. If they have to meet compliance standards, they do so set by regulatory bodies utterly independant of EU membership. Our membership of most regulatory bodies, stands alone outside EU membership. Thats misconception number 2.

The impact of brexit therefore, is potential changes to 'tariffs'. Taking an average figure of 4%, lets then map exchange rate into the equation.

Lets say Tetley, sell a box of tea bags to Carrefour. It cost them £1 to make and the exchange rate at time of sale was 1.5 euros. (£1 equaled E1.5). They sell the box for £2, or E3 equivalent. Then the exchange rate changes, which it does on a daily basis, but lets say, 12 months later, the £ had dropped to say E1.10 against the euro. A 26% reduction. It still costs Tetley £1 to make the box, they still sell at £2 a box, but Carrefour now buy at E2.2, not the previous E3.

Carrefour now have a product on their shelves, making them a further 26% profit.

So, do they, buy more Tetley and sell more product that they make more profit on? Do they reduce the price to the customer, and sell more product due to demand? Or do they do a combination of both? (Rhetorical question)

Then throw the 'tariff' conundrum on there. The EU, post brexit, demands Tetley pay a 4% tariff. In Euros. Tetley have a suppliers agreement with Carrefour to supply, and they take the simplistic route of adding 4% to the cost of their sale. Carrefours box of tea now costs them £2.08. There is no impact to the trade agreement, as all agreements are signed 'subject to local, national taxation' as taxes can go up and down all the time, as do exchange rates. So Carrefour, have an 8p per box dent in their profit, having gained an 80p per box exchange rate benefit.

Do they cancel all trade with Tetley over the 8p in this situation?

If you flip the exchange rate the other way. Lets say the £ rises and the euro drops. Tetley still sell at £2, as it still cost them £1 to make. But the exchange rate is now at E1.90. The cost of the box to Carrefour now jumps to E3.80, from its original E3 starting point. Carrefour have seen no increase on profit, its all exchange rate, and sales are already slumping. (They of course immediately pass on costs to customers). The EU then demands its 4% tariff. So the box now costs E3.95. An increase of 95cents.

What should business get more concerned about? Exchange rate or tariffs? Do remainers get apoplectic over rises and falls in exchange rates? Not in my experience, they merely misunderstand, and celebrate the falling sterling as a sign of weakness or loss. Framed in the Brexit debate, it isnt. (If its merely anti UK sentiment, it is.)

Why then do remainers believe that the EU tariff is the brexit armageddon and are advising each other to stock pile food? Why? Why the hysteria on MN? Because they approach it as some trade embargo, and utterly ignore the economics.

Misconception number 3. We already have variances in 'tax' between EU states. One example is indeed, Irish VAT 23%. UK VAT 20%. Has the sky fallen in over that 3% variance? Absolutely not. Its almost utterly irrelevant when put in exchange rate context . Thats the level of tariffs.

M4Dad, you are really funny

"Remain still don’t get why so many people voted leave. They keep repeating that it is the poor who will lose out the most, appealing to Homo economicus. They keep believing that it was stupidity or gullibility that made poor leavers side with dangerous fools like Boris Johnson. But that is not going to cut it. The people who really hate the way Brexit is going are the people who have got something to lose. When you have nothing to lose, being told you could lose it all doesn’t really count for much. Which is why the more Nick Clegg and
hisWaitrose friends speak of the coming apocalypse, the more some will feel: fine, bring it on.

This logic has understandably panicked the progressive middle
classes. But the language of the cliff edge offers little fear to those
well practised at falling off it. And until we find a radical way to rebalance our economy, such that all share in its benefits, the middle classes will find that democracy will sometimes hand power to those who are perfectly prepared to play chicken with economic failure."

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/belief/2017/oct/12/still-puzzled-by-the-brexit-vote-take-yourself-off-to-blakenall-heath

I can see the attractions of work hard to succeed Capitalism and the dangers of levelling everyone down under Socialism BUT Capitalism uncontrolled effectively delivers Socialism for all but the 1% with ever decreasing returns for effort for the rest. Restrained Socialism otoh constructs appropriate safety nets and trampolines to give people the ability to participate in the Capitalist ideal. Whether politicians call it social capitalism (Tories) or liberal socialism (Labour) makes no difference.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/belief/2017/oct/19/universal-credit-is-designed-to-blame-the-poor-for-their-poverty

"If the government didn't think their impact assessments were meaningful, then why are they so sensitive about them?"

Because like Georges dodgy dossier, when you present stats to reflect a political agenda, they get holes blown in them.

I'm also slightly perturbed why there has no mention of the assets we jointly own with the rest of the EU. Estimated to be around £50 billion?

"Whilst the people controlling capitalism are wankers, history shows what the people who control socialism are like."

Aint that the truth!

Howabout, and why by not passing on any increased profit to the workforce, sees europe as it is today. Wage stagnation as profits have soared? Their 'gift' was cheap credit instead. "Tell ya what, lets not put our hands in our pockets for payrises, instead lets cut how much theyre paying on credit, we get to sell them loads more credit, and they think theyve got more cash in their pockets and weve just sold them the same product twice! Genius!"

"There will be issues at ports etc because increased checks will have to be carried out."

This is misconception number 4. Customs at ports exist to ensure taxes have been paid. Our current system works on a point of origin/point of destination process and taxes are paid before goods move an inch. Port customs merely spot check. They spot check now on non-union goods and they spot check on union goods. The only people paying taxes at port customs, are those who intentionally attempt to shift goods avoiding taxes.

There will of course always be exceptions to any rule, and yes, initially importers/exporters will have to 'learn' about the new 'tax', (hence the initial higher level of vigilance), but Im struggling to see why an exporter/importer, who spend millions setting up his export/import business, investing millions in fleet vehicles, then builds a business model on attempting to screw 4p in the £ (which is passed on to the consumer) out of the tax coffers. As M4dad points out, its easier to do that by following Richard Bransons example and throwing your 'profits' into offshore havens.

The current system works, because the vast majority of importers and exporters want their business to succeed, not because they intend losing all investment in that business and jail time, to make an extra 4p in the £.

Is it L'eclerc Mother? Ill stand corrected

"These lorries will not be magically waved through, they will have to prove what they have in their load is what it says on the manifest."

How do you think the lorries are currently magically waved through Mother? How do you think the current system works?

Your conflating Imports now Mother. This assumes the UK set a new tax on imports from the EU. Thats a whole different debate, from the EU tariff one.

The Irish trade route through the UK, from Ireland to the EU, is indeed an issue, but we addressed this on the other thread. There are solutions, though currently there appears a lack of will to resolve it.

Tariffs are or rather would be the easy bit . Non Tariff Barriers are why the shit would could hit the fan and cause Operation Stack on steroids.

Unless you are suggesting that we would commit to forever copying without input EU regulations. I thought the whole point of Leave was so that we could regain our sovereignty (even though the PM acknowledges we never lost it) and make our own regulations and choices

I'm beginning to wonder if caroline is part of DD's team. In her mind nothing about leaving is a problem yet there are no practical solutions offered......

"Non Tariff Barriers are why the shit would could hit the fan and cause Operation Stack on steroids. "

Please explain. I know why thats not the case, but Im wasting my breath whilst remainers refuse to grasp the basics. Please explain, to your fellow remainers, why youre claiming this.

PS To help, heres an easy to follow explanation of 'dumping' which the UK doesnt actually do.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dumping(pricingg_policy)

And yes, of course UK suppliers selling into EU markets have to comply with EU compliancy standards. They do now. All world wide suppliers have to, and EU prices are already inflated because of this. Are you seriously suggesting, Tetley Tea are going to start padding their tea bags with plastic shavings post brexit or do you think they may just have one employee that keeps an eye on market compliance and regs, in multiple markets I might add? (This wouldnt be hysteria creeping in would it?)

Who on earth has claimed UK suppliers to the EU, should be 'EU compliance free' post brexit?

What 'extra' cost/process do you claim would impact UK suppliers, that would cause "Operation Stack on steroids"?

Clearly, you conveniently miss-hear, when leavers point out that 55% of UK trade wouldnt post brexit, be subject to EU regs, restrictions and their associated costs. Quite simply, because they dont sell into the EU.

Ask Pretty. Shes the one claiming Op Stack.