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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

OP posts:
Thread gallery
33
woman11017 · 08/10/2017 09:10

The defence secretary has announced that 31 new cadet units will open in state schools – but Schools Week analysis shows that just 81 state schools have been approved to have cadets since 2015, despite an injection of £50 million and promises to launch 100 units per year
.
schoolsweek.co.uk/defence-secretary-announces-more-state-school-cadet-units/

What was the demographic of the foot soldiers in the last bout of war in the north of Ireland?

HashiAsLarry · 08/10/2017 09:17

The UK government is threatening the framework of peace that exists in NI, where the best solution for NI could be to rejoin with ROI if both wanted it. In this case, this really isn't the nationism calls of the past though they undoubtedly exist still.

Of course to the views of certain types of DM readers NI can fuck off because they're forriners and the spanish/catalonians are crazy arsed forriners and the actions out there further prove why forriners should not be welcome here.

Peregrina · 08/10/2017 09:18

I see that one of the MPs stripped of the Tory whip for not supporting the party stance of sufficient progress being made represents the South West and Gibraltar. That for me, is telling.

Gibraltar of course, who overwhelmingly supported Remain, on any reading of the stats, is normally overlooked until the Little Englanders start screaming about it being 'ours'. They do indeed need a history lesson on the War of the Spanish Succession.

RedToothBrush · 08/10/2017 09:24

Alex Wickham‏*@WikiGuido*

Interesting and not wrong from James Cleverly, increasingly tipped as next party chairman:
www.ft.com/content/2a00aba4-aa92-11e7-ab66-21cc87a2edde
The Conservatives need to regain their mojo and take on Labour
Gossip about leadership is distracting from the UK’s real challenges by James Cleverly

This tweet was 15hrs ago. When I read it my initial reaction is that Johnson has made a deal here. Johnson for PM, Cleverly for Party Chair, perhaps with a view to being leader at a later date having established a higher profile.

Now reading that Cleverly is one of the 'traitors' in that context is interesting.

If he really is 'Team Boris' (as opposed to 'Team Cleverly' as has also been suggested), that puts a rather different light on things.

Of course Cleverly could also be acting totally independently of Johnson, for his own ambition and vision... He doesn't sound like its very popular right now though, and this is a cracking smear to be caught up in. If you are Johnson.

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 08/10/2017 09:28

I am in fact in favour of people being able to choose independence for their country / region,
even it it is because of "selfish" reasons and even if there are some very dodgy backers behind the scenes

My only provisos are that

  • those of other nationalities should be treated fairly withour racist, e.g. Sturgeon saying English people in Scotland would be regarded as Scots
  • international human rights laws be followed. So, no ethnic cleansing or gas chambers, even if the majority are entranced by a demagogue to want them

The dictatorship of Franco left scars that still remain in Spain (and still causes nervousness in Gibraltar)

All European countries that spent decades under dictatorship, whether fascist - Spain, Portugal, Greece -
or Communist - all the East European countries
are still suffering lingering after-effects, socially, politically, economically
It's like a lingering poison.

In Germany, decades after reunification, there is still a substantial "solidarity tax" added to all income tax, to keep bringing the former DDR - much smaller population than the West - up to the same economic standard as Western Germans
There is still a great political divide, with the former East Germany being the powerhouse of both the racist far right AfD and the far left Linke, containing many former communists

That's with a country that up until 1945 shared the same language and culture

Dictatorship and colonialism (often the same thing) really fuck up a country, longterm

RedToothBrush · 08/10/2017 09:31

www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independentdiscussions/
Independent Discussions: Reflections on Theresa May’s Conference Speech

The Independent commissioned BMG Research to gauge how the public might respond to Theresa May’s keynote speech at this year’s Conservative party conference held in Manchester. Immediately after the speech, BMG conducted two in-person discussion groups to give Independent readers a flavour of the type of discussions that the speech will have provoked.

www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independentdiscussions-lpc17-corbyn-speech/
Independent Discussions: Reflections on Corbyn’s Conference Speech

The Independent commissioned BMG Research to gauge how the public might respond to Jeremy Corbyn’s keynote speech at this year’s Labour party conference held in Brighton. Immediately after the speech, BMG conducted two in-person discussion groups to give Independent readers a flavour of the type of discussions that the speech will have provoked. Groups were balanced by demographics and political partisanship, but will not be an exact reflection of the nation at large. The video clips and summary below are designed to give a reflection of the content discussed in the groups who were ordinary members of the public.

Election Data‏****@election_data

"When asked how they would describe the British dream, all participants fell silent, with many reaching the conclusion that it didn’t mean anything"

Election Data‏****@election_data

"When asked to choose between a ‘Capitalist Britain’ and a ‘Socialist Britain’, the majority of participants favoured capitalism"

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/07/tories-new-leader-may-rejuvenate-party
Tories know they need a new leader, but have no idea how to get one
In the aftermath of a disastrous party conference, some MPs believe power must shift to a new generation to rejuvenate the party. Toby Helm and Michael Savage report

Election Data‏****@election_data
"The Tories are now seen as more divided than Labour for the first time since before Corbyn became leader."

And from the loveable, in touch Redwood.

John Redwood‏*@johnredwood*
Young people will be particular beneficiaries of leaving the EU. It will strengthen their voices & give more power to their votes.

Marie-Anne‏*@mapduliand*

I’m 29. My husband is 30. Both EU nationals who will bear the brunt of a hard Brexit. We were given no voice and no vote.

We’re leaving.

Election Data‏****@election_data

Top work everyone

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RedToothBrush · 08/10/2017 09:33

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-tories-poll-latest-lead-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-pm-general-election-five-points-bmg-a7988166.html
Labour pull clear of Tories as new poll shows voters prefer Corbyn over May as PM
Exclusive: The Labour Party has taken a decisive lead in the polls, and the public now thinks Corbyn would make a better Prime Minister than Theresa May

(Related to the BMG focus groups post conference as mentioned above)

OP posts:
woman11017 · 08/10/2017 09:36

Type a phrase and watch it fall off a wall behind Theresa May
thebritishdrea.com
Grin

Wonder who else is on team Cleverly? red

if there are some very dodgy backers behind the scenes usually 'as' rather than 'if' BCF

RedToothBrush · 08/10/2017 09:38

Ciarán O' Driscoll‏*@bearaboi*
"Lets make Brexit a success!" they said.

Internal Revenue report finds open customs border impossible after Brexit

www.rte.ie/news/2017/1008/910662-brexit-customs/
Revenue report finds open customs border impossible after Brexit

An internal report by the Revenue Commissioners has spelled out the enormous physical and economic impact Brexit will impose upon both Ireland’s customs infrastructure, and on the tens of thousands of companies who trade with the UK.

The unpublished report, seen by RTÉ News, sets out in stark detail the vast increase in paperwork, human resources and physical space requirements at ports and airports.

The report also declares that an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will be impossible from a customs perspective.

A year before Brexit, the Revenue Commissioners began exploring the potential impact on the customs interface between Ireland and the UK.

91,000 Irish companies trade with the UK. After Brexit, their customs declarations will mean an 800% increase in volume.

It doesn't matter what the British government say. If the Irish government say there must be a border, there must be a border.

OP posts:
woman11017 · 08/10/2017 09:42

It doesn't matter what the British government say.
I don't think they've quite got the hang of that idea. But they will. Grin

RedToothBrush · 08/10/2017 09:44

Kevin Schofield‏*@PolhomeEditor*

Asked if she'll end up at Westminster, Ruth Davidson will only say she is Scottish Tory leader "right now". #marr

The Andrew Marr Show‏*@MarrShow*

"I've got a job at the moment. I am not looking past 2021" - @RuthDavidsonMSP on standing for Tory leadership in Westminster #marr

OP posts:
Motheroffourdragons · 08/10/2017 09:45

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Motheroffourdragons · 08/10/2017 09:47

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

pointythings · 08/10/2017 09:56

John Redwood really is a piece of work. What I see wrt to the young people who are friends with my DDs is that they have lost the opportunity to study and work in 27 other countries, all at a stroke of a pen from mostly older people. It is a gross insult to claim that this is in any way in their interest. They know it too - many of them have parents who voted Leave but the reality of what the future holds is starting to sink in.

prettybird · 08/10/2017 10:33

There has been a "country" that has left the EU (or rather the EEC at the time). Greenland.

Despite Greenland only having a population of 56,000 and despite it being the EEC, so less integrated than the EU and despite really only having fishing rights to negotiate, it still took three years , from 1982 to 1985, to negotiate the exit treaty Shock

A wee bit of relevant trivia to place mat! Wink

RedToothBrush · 08/10/2017 10:37

RESHUFFLE???

www.express.co.uk/news/uk/863631/Brexit-Conservatives-Theresa-May-Boris-Johnson-Government-Cabinet-Tory-Jeremy-Corbyn
Theresa May planning to 'silence Boris Johnson with imminent Cabinet reshuffle'
THERESA May is preparing to silence Boris Johnson in an imminent Cabinet reshuffle that could see the Foreign Secretary lose his high-ranking position in the party.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/08/theresa-may-hints-prepared-demote-boris-johnsonin-reshuffle/
Theresa May hints she is prepared to demote Boris Johnson in a reshuffle

www.thesun.co.uk/news/4635803/theresa-may-cabinet-reshuffle-conservative-party/
NEW BLOODTheresa May vows to ‘inject fresh blood’ into her Cabinet and stage a major reshuffle to give younger Conservative MPs a chance to shine
The PM is rearranging her Cabinet in the hope of finding her eventual successor

Names in the fold:
Victoria Atkins
Brandon Lewis
Nusrat Ghani
James Cleverly
Tom Tugendhat
Dominic Raab

Cleverly and Tugendhat are better than some of the current Cabinet.

Raab. Just no.

The others I'm not familiar with.

OP posts:
LewisThere · 08/10/2017 10:57

.

IdontlooklikeEmmaWatson · 08/10/2017 11:09

Thanks for a new thread

TheElementsSong · 08/10/2017 11:11

RESHUFFLE???

Deckchairs... Titanic... Grin

LurkingHusband · 08/10/2017 11:11

I suspect rather horrifyingly that many English people don't give a toss about Northern Ireland and would be quite happy to lose it.

Maybe that's a tad unfair. I don't know about "happy to lose it" but certainly in my case - as with Scotland (and Wales) I'm happy to accept the "will of the people" on this.

In reality[1] the situation should be that NI and Scotland are part of the UK in their own volition and are welcome to not be, should they so desire. (Because otherwise we have England telling them they can't go. Which rather changes the dynamic somewhat).

Most of Europe - certainly the bigger countries - has changed borders and boundaries many times in the past few centuries. Something the UK hasn't really experienced - except for NI/RoI.

[1]which doesn't apply here Sad

LurkingHusband · 08/10/2017 11:12

Brandon Lewis

Rings a bell. Home Office ? Housing ?

What about Priti ?

lalalonglegs · 08/10/2017 11:54

TM seems to have been given a fairly easy ride in the Sundays - I thought they would be baying for her blood - in most, there is a frustrated hand-wringing that there is no obvious successor. David Mitchell makes a small but interesting point about her conference speech:

Others blamed the fact (which was news to most of us) that the Conservatives took their events management back in-house two years ago to cut costs. That’s quite the metaphor for Brexit. They stopped sending money away to outsiders, took control themselves, and everything fell to bits. Smile

SwedishEdith · 08/10/2017 12:00

Placemarking.

SwedishEdith · 08/10/2017 12:15

Brandon Lewis is one of those "straight-talking" bruiser types. Remain supporter. Often on C4 News or Newsnight.

HesterThrale · 08/10/2017 12:16

Red what is this @electiondata account? Did it really tweet 'Top work everyone' when an EU national tweeted that she was leaving the UK? (Your post of 9.31)
Seems unpleasant, or have I misconstrued?

Thanks for the thread.