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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 19:03

woman iirc, there has long been a separatist movement in Italy, of the prosperous North, mainly because they don't want to keep subsidising the poorer South

There have been a huge number of separatist movements in continental Europe, for historical reasons

  • but we only hear about them when violemce or chaos erupts

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Listoffactiveseparatisttmovementsinn_Europe

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 19:08

Better to allow UKIP to be elected, then exposed as the bumbling, venal incompetents they are
Better for the other parties in Parliament to keep calling them out and hammering them on policy, on mistakes, on financial dishonesty

Part of the anger of UKIP voters was that the system was rigged against them - that may have brought the high turnout of Leavers
In any case, rigging the system, whether to keep a party in, or to keep them out, is just wrong

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 19:10

I'm still staggered that ORB found so many more people believe the Uk will be economically better off outside the EU Shock
I doubt if they've heard / listened to any of the consequences for the ports, air travel, customs delays, losing all trade deals with the world ....

woman11017 · 07/10/2017 19:14

Good list, BCF, incomplete though, doesn't have the People's Republic of Stottie Cake, or the North East of England, from where I am an economic migrant. Grin

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_England_devolution_referendum,_2004

artisancraftbeer · 07/10/2017 19:41

BCF - the consequences for the ports, flights etc is the new 'project fear'. People genuinely do not believe it will be that bad and it is just scaremongering. Even my remoaner in-laws think it will be economic decline, but think the idea of rationing etc is totally ridiculous.

Interestingly I think it is that we (as a population) are very comfortable, despite austerity etc and most people just don't think it could possibly change that much.

woman11017 · 07/10/2017 19:56

Theresa May is under pressure to publish secret legal advice that is believed to state that parliament could still stop Brexit before the end of March 2019 if MPs judge that a change of mind is in the national interest. The move comes as concern grows that exit talks with Brussels are heading for disaster.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/07/theresa-may-secret-advice-brexit-eu?CMP=twt_gu

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 20:08

A significant minority of the population don't have the resources to cope with even a short post-Brexit period of job losses accompanied by rising prices

Brexiters in Parliament don't care out them, because they are a minority who often don't vote - FPTP in action again

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/20/one-in-four-uk-families-have-less-than-95-in-savings-report-finds

1 in 4 have less than £95 savings
8% have more than £62k savings

UK inequality encapsulated. The minority that can batten down the hatches for a few years are the minority that counts.

Across the UK, families owe an average of £2,770 in personal loans, i.e. not mortgage.

Also, https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/15/inflation-could-push-more-britons-below-poverty-line
At least 4 million more people have been pushed below the benchmark for an adequate income because of rising food and fuel prices, a new study from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation has warned.

Holliewantstobehot · 07/10/2017 20:28

I was reading the comments on yahoo earlier. Always an interesting read! Apparently Rupert Murdoch and George Osborne are trying to bring down Brexit. We should ignore them and the scaremongering. Brexit will be great and we will all do well. Several people saying we should just leave right now with no deal. Oh and we should get behind TM to stop "commie corbyn".

That's what you can't reason with. Any allusion to brexit going badly is dismissed as a conspiracy to stop Brexit. Brexit will be great as we will have our country back and that means more than money apparently. Although sovereignty won't feed or house you. But I guess they'll find that out the hard way. And then it will be the government's fault. The EU's fault. Anyone's fault but their's. The fact that we are just better off in the EU will be irrelevant. These people are going to be pissed off no matter what happens so I don't see the point in bending over backwards to placate them.

But then some MPs seem to care more about their jobs than doing what's right. Sorry still angry about that! I admire Nick Clegg enormously for trying to find a solution of any kind to this mess.

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 07/10/2017 20:31

Olennas — I thought the Labour statement ruled out 'no deal' as a viable option, but perhaps I misread it in haste.

Meanwhile, the significant development for me is that the phrase 'hard right' has finally entered the discourse, which means the centrepoint between 'hard' left and right is now somewhere around the centre, rather than 2/3rds the way to the right.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 20:42

“Brexit increasingly feels like a man in his 50s getting divorced because he can’t wait to get on Tinder and meet loads of 20 year olds”.

I would add:

"but he got the name of the site wrong and has in fact signed up for 20 tonnes of manure to be dumped on his garden.

squishysquirmy · 07/10/2017 20:53

There's so many people (even remainers) I know who seem to be either under the impression that everything is going fairly well, or are unaware that there even are any detailed discussions to be had. Because Brexit is done now, and politics is "boring". I think that if Brexit were to collapse due to the incompetence of the negotiators and somehow to be postponed/cancelled (I can but dream) it would come completely out of the blue to many people. A collapse of the government, another GE and Labour (or a coalition) in power would likewise come as a huge, unforeseen surprise to the many people (cue conspiracy theories about liberal elites depriving the will of the people). I can't see the Brexiteers taking it quietly.

I am getting increasingly worried about us accidentally crashing out of the EU. If it comes to a game of chicken, the hard right will "win" over the more moderate MPs because they are the maddest. They are the only ones who will block a Brexit deal if the alternative is leaving with no deal - which means that a damaging, hard Brexit will not be stopped, but a Brexit deal that isn't considered Brexity enough by the nutters might be. Whichever Tory is PM, and whatever there personal stance is I can't see how they can square that circle.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 20:54

A QC at Matrix Chambers:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/07/why-its-not-too-late-to-step-back-from-brexit

"the article 50 notification can be withdrawn by the UK at any time before 29 March 2019, resulting in the UK remaining in the EU on its current favourable terms"

So, retaining all current opt-outs and rebates
The clock can be turned back

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 21:01

I continue to suspect that JC is quite happy about Brexit, because he thinks - in a GE after Brexit:

  • Labour will have landslide of 1997 proportions
  • They will be in power for 10+ years, enough time to totally transform the country into social democracy and extinguish all traces of neoliberalism
  • It may even destroy the Tories longterm in England, as Tory and then Labour were destroyed in Scotland
  • it will permanently ruin the Tory Party reputation for economic prudence

He just wants to give the Tories clear run to Brexit - because he sure as hell doesn't want to deal with Brexit himself and carry the can for it.

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 07/10/2017 21:04

I don’t think any of those four things will happen. (Nor, as it happens, would I want them to).

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 21:05

Will Brexit destroy the Tories, as no other event or issue over 2 centuries has been able to ?

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/06/tories-destroying-themselves-hard-brexit

... the axiom that previously held as firm as a law of physics: that the Conservative party has a will to power so strong, it will subordinate every other consideration, principle or interest to obtain and keep it.

It’s this that has made the Tories arguably the most successful political party in the democratic world over the course of nearly two centuries
....
The fever of Conservative Europhobia runs so hot, it has already burnt through a series of supposedly sacred Tory principles

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 21:07

I wonder if Brexit will within a few years wreck one or both of the major parties, whoever ends up being blamed for it / for not carrying it out successfully

TheElementsSong · 07/10/2017 21:27

for not carrying it out successfully

Thing is, and I know it must be because I’m not a BeLeaver, there is no way to carry it out “successfully”. Because there is no universally agreed definition of successful Brexit.

Peregrina · 07/10/2017 21:33

Because there is no universally agreed definition of successful Brexit.

But we have some clues:
We regain 'sovereignty', which we never lost, but don't let a detail worry you.
We have £350 million a week for the NHS.
We control immigration by stopping people coming here.
In the Leavers eyes they will have got all they wanted. OK if it wrecks the economy, well, that's just a minor detail because we will be out of the EU which they seem to hate beyond reason.

Peregrina · 07/10/2017 21:34

But it won't be a success because the £350 million won't materialise - the other aspects probably will.

frumpety · 07/10/2017 21:34

Thanks Red

thecatfromjapan · 07/10/2017 21:35

Has everyone seen this already? time to join the Tories and vote for Amber Rudd, I suppose.

TheElementsSong · 07/10/2017 21:41

We control immigration by stopping people coming here.

Any number of outraged Leavers will tell you that they absolutely don’t desire this at all, and that you’re a ghastly bully for suggesting this.

So this can’t form part of a universal definition of successful Brexit.

squishysquirmy · 07/10/2017 21:46

Even if May's team were to come away from the negotiations with a an amazingly good deal (access to the single market that's almost as good as being a member; a good solution for Northern Ireland; an end end to free movement with the EU; a small divorce bill, and loads of concessions from the EU) they will still be considered to have failed. Remainers won't be happy, because the UK will still be in a worse place than if we had stayed in the EU and hardline Brexiteers wont be happy because somewhere within that improbably good deal would be a compromise, we would still be tied to the EU through the deal and it would not be considered a hard enough Brexit.

Any economic woes suffered as a result of Brexit will be blamed on not brexiting harder, at least by the right and certain sections of the media. Sad

Peregrina · 07/10/2017 22:04

I suppose I would have to judge Brexit a grudging success, if the economy was buoyant - with genuine jobs, not this zero hours rubbish, the housing crisis was solved, there was investment for the NHS and schools, and things like food banks were as distant a memory as the hungry 30s were. Plus the wealthy paid their fair share of tax, and we stopped vilifying those less fortunate or the sick and disabled as scroungers.

Well, we shall see.

Bearbehind · 07/10/2017 22:04

Any number of outraged Leavers will tell you that they absolutely don’t desire this at all, and that you’re a ghastly bully for suggesting this.

So this can’t form part of a universal definition of successful Brexit.

If you are in any doubt about the motives of the Leave votes who swayed the referendum, check out the Daily Mail comments- they are horrific.

The reaction to Mays pledge to build more houses was virtually unanimously to insist they were only for 'British' people.

They are going to have a shock when they realise leaving the EU does not result in those with a different skin colour to them disappearing,