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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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ElenaGreco123 · 17/10/2017 10:35

Flowers to all of us biting our lips.

Mind you Kipper MIL and FIL are very careful around DH, DB and me.

I am totally on board with LH on going overboard on supporting cliff edge Brexit. I always say to Kippers that I fully support Brexit as long as we are all in this together. I.e. we all equally share all the benefits and downsides of Brexit, not just anyone under 50.

Cailleach1 · 17/10/2017 11:57

I can just see the whole country now,swanning around carefree in thousands of Government subsidised Morgans, Caterams and McClarens

What's that? What's that? After Brexit, if WTO hard hitters get a whiff of direct or indirect subsidies, there'll be consequences before you can say 'unfair state aid'.

muststoplurking · 17/10/2017 12:09

Re woman taking brunt of Brexit. We are British and my DH is the higher earner in our family and has just accepted job abroad in an EU27 country. He works in academia and was offered a similar job with much better terms and conditions (a stable job and decent pay). With 2 young DC, we will have to move as a family to this new country. I (a woman) have resigned from my training position to facilitate this. I was a SAHM for years prior to getting this position which I worked hard for and enjoyed every day. Unfortunately given the circumstances I'll be starting from scratch in a country where I can't even speak the language. I'll find something, but I've had to give up a chance at a good career for this shit. (angry rant over)

I've read these threads for a long time and find them a real help in tough times. Thanks all.

LurkingHusband · 17/10/2017 12:13

Are we still in the EU ? What the hell are the government up to ?

Where's that petition for an immediate exit ?

Ah petition.parliament.uk/petitions/200165

Signe Grin. (Seriously, I signed it. No one gives a toss anyway, so we may as well have fun.)

I'd really like to hear the government dismiss that petition ....

HashiAsLarry · 17/10/2017 12:37

News out today regarding the apparent non surge in hate crimes according to some showing a surge in hate crimes, mainly race based. Though apparently it's all still those eastern Europeans banding together after the vote, trying to show us as racist and false reporting because they couldn't have been busy worrying about whether or not the could remain here or anything Hmm

Also the oecd reporting is not looking too favourable towards brexit at the moment. Though a second referendum reversing brexit would do a lot to bring us back to where we were financially before the referendum they say.

I'm sure someone will probably have decent links before I can figure out how to do them on this machine!

HashiAsLarry · 17/10/2017 13:02

This is a link the Lizzie Dearden's tweet
replying to hopkins

She also links to a report of the home office stats which she says are accurate.

I thought it was important as the argument that prosecutions going down so reports are made up is stril strong with certain types. Lizzie Dearden was not making that point when she reported on the prosecutions.

HashiAsLarry · 17/10/2017 13:08

Here's a link to Ed Conway tweets

Short summary with graphs on oecd

BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2017 13:09

You're right about the quote, LH
I do remember being impressed with Hastings' writings though, at least during the War itself

My recollection overall is that although the govt wanted patriotic media, the BBC and the serious papers still had sufficient spine to avoid outright lies
There was of course the unforgettably callous "gotcha" from the Sun though, after all those Argentinians drowned in the Belgrano
but noone ever called the Sun serious except in its vileness

Kinnock was able to say something scathing about MrsT proving her guts by sacrificing the guts of British service personnel - without being called an Enemy of the People

BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2017 13:10

lonely We can look forward to seeing the return of British mass-produced gems:
Morris Marina, Austin Allegro, maybe even the Reliant Robin

All belong to the list of worst cars of all time, rather a lot of British names there, accompanying the Yugo

Apocryphal ?
A UK ambassador in the Balkans found himself stranded.

He was offered a lift in a Yugo and replied,
"thank you for your kind offer, but I would rather be seen getting out the back of a sheep. !" Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2017 13:10

< seriously lowering the thread tone >

BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2017 13:12

but it does about sum up my personal feelings about calling for Hard Brexit - I don't think I want to be seen doing that

woman11017 · 17/10/2017 13:13

muststoplurking Flowers that's crap.Sad
lonelyplanetmum you've inspired a new acronym for 'hard brexit' fools:
VOHAPs virtue of his aged . Grin

woman11017 · 17/10/2017 13:28

Economic experts have made an explosive suggestion of a further referendum to reverse Brexit, to avoid the crippling of the British economy
.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-oecd-eu-referendum-second-economy-reverse-uk-europe-theresa-may-latest-a8004676.html

BBC is running this too.

Wonder what they really did talk about over dinner last night. Hmm

woman11017 · 17/10/2017 13:33

Maugham collating evidence. He could do with a look round here. [grin

@JolyonMaugham 4h
We need your help in the fight to obtain the secret Brexit studies. THREAD, please RT. /1
We’re putting together witness statements and we’d like you to help us track stuff down. Please reply with links. /2
We’re looking for stuff from ‘official’ sources – eg Ministers, Government
We don’t mind when the statements were made – whether before or after the Referendum – so long as they are from official sources. /4
What forward looking statements – i.e forecasts – have been made about the economic effects of Brexit by official UK sources? /5
What statements have been made about how well Brexit is going (eg the fruits of our trade deals) from official UK sources? /6
What about official EU sources? What forward looking statements have they made about economic effects of Brexit? For the EU? And for us? /7
What about other EU member states? What forward looking statements have they made about the economic effects of Brexit on them? /8

Badders08 · 17/10/2017 13:37

Marina!
Bugger me.
My dad had a marina. A purple one.
You could see the road through the floor.....

LurkingHusband · 17/10/2017 13:56

Ah yes, British made cars of the 70s. Where you could get a briefcase in the front without opening a door.

Cailleach1 · 17/10/2017 14:00

Where you could get a briefcase in the front without opening a door.

I like that. Sounds quirky. It could be a marketing feature. Time saving and was part of the intended design all along.

Badders08 · 17/10/2017 14:20

😂

EmilyAlice · 17/10/2017 14:24

We had an Allaggro. I never could move between third and fifth gears. It was orange with a go-faster stripe. 😀

LurkingHusband · 17/10/2017 14:35

For some reason, Britain - certainly post war - has never really been that good at any form of drawing board to market mass manufacturing. Cars being a point in hand.

At the risk of being accused of talking out of my tailpipe, I suspect the reason is a reflection of the wider malaise Anglaise, whereby things are driven top-down, rather than ground-up. So rather than building cars which had been designed from consumer research, British industry built the cars the management thought would sell.

You can get away with that sort of approach when there's no competition. But as was seen, the moment proper manufacturers turned up and starting building cars people wanted it was game over.

In fact, it's almost provable by exception with the Mini.

That's mass manufacturing. Mysteriously, the cars for the bosses (Jaguars, Rolls Royce) did much better.

James May did a programme on "peoples cars" where he actually interviewed some surviving BL engineers.

(The whole thing has the same vibe Monty Python suggested where the most important person in the operating theatre was the hospital administrator ...)

Motheroffourdragons · 17/10/2017 14:45

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

LurkingHusband · 17/10/2017 15:08

If your wipers fail, a potato cut in half and smeared on the windscreen will help keep it free of raindrops.

prettybird · 17/10/2017 15:11

And of course, people carry a potato and a knife in their car for just that eventuality Grin

Badders08 · 17/10/2017 15:13

I'm quite depressed today
I saw this and it cheered me up...hope it cheers you guys and gals up to!

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
RedToothBrush · 17/10/2017 15:16

Re Vauxhall - the ellesmere port plant has very particular issues.

I got talking to a few people with knowledge of it, who were of the opinion that the plant would have been under threat without brexit. These include remainers.

The problem with it, is its productivity and being in competition with french plants (and unions) and the model of car there.

The parent company have said the decision is nothing to do with Brexit. I actually do believe that. I think Brexit does affect it long term and will make a bad problem worse, but generally the chances of the plant surviving in any circumstances were perhaps limited.

The area as a whole was heavily leave. Its not a bad area, and there is a generally high rate of employment. But jobs are in a limited number of fields, and this is where the long term problems lie as it runs the risk of ending up like ex coal mining areas.

I hate to say it, but the influence of brexit on this particular plant is perhaps being inflated (unlike is the case for other car plants). Its about wider issues of a changing market and manufacturing practices which ellesmere isn't well suited to adapting to.

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