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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 17:45

If May does resign, whether "voluntarily" or after losing a leadership yes/no vote called by the 1922 committee,

then I expect Labour to propose an immediate No Confidence vote.
Logically, the Tories and the DUP should hang together to defeat this

However, with all the bungling incompetence and Baldric-type cunning plots we've seen, we could end up with an accidental GE
just like we could have an accidental no-deal Brexit

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 17:47

May's "sisterhood" is for comfortably off white mc women

woman11017 · 07/10/2017 17:48

Sorry if this has already been posted.
Why would labour commit to following through on any tory agreements?

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 17:48

The rest is just window-dressing, which is dumped whenever politically convenient

StrawberryFizBomb · 07/10/2017 17:48

Cheers rtb

woman11017 · 07/10/2017 17:50

FTPA mitigates deliberately, though against vote of no confidence, though BCF unless that gets repealed too? What a pickle.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 17:53

woman As I posted on the last thread, I think the EU is concerned about losing progress & concessions on expats in particular, also the bill.

No sign of progress on NI and no sign that talks would ever proceed to trade.

Also strong rumours that the EU would much rather talk trade with Corbyn, as there is much more chance the resulting deal would be more in the EEA/EFTA direction
Hence much less disruptive than a deliberate or bungled Tory no-deal.
JC statements suggest he would keep on talking - presumably with extended time - until he is satisfied jobs won't be lost and the effects on the economy will be minimised.

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 17:55

slightly OT, but did anyone catch "Reformation" with David Starkey ...

Yes I did, and was going to mention it but thought it off topic too! I also dislike Starkey but the parallel about it being down to changing technology which empowered the masses against the state were quite something.

Also interesting how the British establishment used it for their own ends whereas in German it did end up being more 'for the people'.

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BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 17:56

woman Under the Act, if a No Confidence vote is passed, then Parliament is dissolved unless the vote is reversed within 14 days
In practice, I don't see how a govt would have any credibility after losing the first vote.
Hence dubious if they could manage to win the wnd

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 17:57

FTPA mitigates deliberately, though against vote of no confidence, though BCF unless that gets repealed too? What a pickle.

Can't be repealed unless a bill is put before parliament for that. Opposition can't do that against the governments will.

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BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 17:57

win the 2nd

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 18:09

Tim Walker‏*@ThatTimWalker*

Utter state of the Telegraph: Mrs May advised here to lose her last sane cabinet member & embrace a lying charlatan

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
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BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 18:13

Of all the mistakes Nick Cleg made, the Fixed Term act was the one I hated most:
Liberals, of all people, should not make it more difficult to remove an oppressive or incompetent govt

His price for a coalition with either party should have been PR, not a referendum on it: a written agreement hat this bill would be passed within the 1st 6 months or the coalition would end immediately

IrenetheQuaint · 07/10/2017 18:21

I dunno. In more stable times the FTPA has quite a lot to recommend it: much better to know when the election is coming and all parties can plan accordingly. Also means the government in power can't choose the time to suit themselves.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 18:29

(Paywall) Public trust in Theresa May’s handling of Brexit talks hits all-time low

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/07/public-concern-theresa-mays-handling-brexit-talks-hits-time/

and this was before May's conference speech

BUT
43% still think the UK “will be economically better off” outside the EU
vs 35% who think it will be worse off

That's the problem.
Maybe because most people can't / won't research the consequences and the MSM - unlike the Norths - aren't printing them.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/07/public-concern-theresa-mays-handling-brexit-talks-hits-time/
...
The findings .... also throw into question the justification of Mrs May’s supporters of why she has to remain as Prime Minister.

Brexit-supporting Conservative MPs have repeatedly said that it would damage Britain’s talks with EU negotiators if she were replaced in 10 Downing Street.
....
[ORB found] The only time more than half of the population thought the talks were going well were after Mrs May set out her plans for the talks in her Lancaster House speech.

Since the summer support has tailed away from 54 per cent supporting the Government’s negotiations in June to as few as 36 per cent at the beginning of this month.

Similarly the proportion of voters who have “confidence that the Prime Minister will get the right deal” is down to 31 per cent, a 12 month low.

BestIsWest · 07/10/2017 18:37

Thanks for the new thread Red even if I have been avoiding them lately as too depressing. I’m beginning to get angry again.

LurkingHusband · 07/10/2017 18:45

Of all the mistakes Nick Clegg made, the Fixed Term act was the one I hated most: Liberals, of all people, should not make it more difficult to remove an oppressive or incompetent govt

And yet almost all liberal democracies do seem to manage with fixed term parliaments ? Are they incapable of removing non-functioning governments ?

Of course (again) the impasse the UK has managed to paint itself into might be something to do with the fact fiction that our Head of State is effectively impotent and unable to exercise their power in anything but a government prescribed way.

If we had an elected Head of State, then they at least would have a mandate to remove May ????

The FTPA would have been a powerful tool for democracy when allied with a proportional representation system. But we know what happened there ....

I have to say, if the current crisis in UK politics doesn't warrant some sort of Royal intervention then - in the kindest way possible - what's the point of them ?

(Fights hard to avoid starting a republican discussion ....)

BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 18:53

I know most countries get along without it
However, I think it was an advantage that the UK system had and I hope the next govt repeals the Act

It's particularly important with FPTP because a govt might only be elected by 35% of the vote, not counting Don't Knows
So they start off by representing a minority and they don't have to consider the majority of the population, who would never vote for them

Most of the govts on the continent have PR, which usually means they start of with parties representing over 50% of the vote and form coalitions after negotiating

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 18:53

Turn the question of the FTPA on its head.

Do you think the Hard Right of the Tory Party would have schemed to break the Coalition without the FTPA?

Why did Clegg insist on it? It was for stability and to ultimately force the two parties into a compromise. Who threatened that instability? His own party or the Tory Party?

It made a lot of sense at the time. It still makes a lot of sense really. Its just it doesn't make sense when you have a bunch of incompetent fools who have lost all sense of reality.

Who would have predicted that in 2010? I think a little unfair to criticise Clegg for that one, even with the Law of Unintended consequences. The Hard Right of the Party really have surpassed all expectations in the last 18 months.

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RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 18:55

Lurking, I suspect that the debate over the Royals will be for a future parliament in the not so distant future, once the Queen has gone.

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woman11017 · 07/10/2017 18:56

Pro-unity Catalans take to the streets to condemn ‘selfish revolution

Álex Ramos, president of the SCC, told the Observer: “The nationalism here is ethnic, not civic; it’s linguistic, cultural, tribal, sentimental and romantic. It’s not like the French revolution, demanding equality and liberty for all. Deep down these nationalists think they’re different from others and, ultimately, better than them.

This is a revolution of the powerful, of Catalonia’s wealthiest classes, not the oppressed. It’s a selfish revolution. They mobilise, telling the world how hard done by they are, and then dismiss anyone who disagrees as a fascist.”

www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/07/catalonia-independence-spain-protest

Our demos against brexit can have done no harm to those in EU27 who want to protest against petty nationalism.

In the long term, perhaps, going through this brekshit, may do more good for internationalism and the EU.

LurkingHusband · 07/10/2017 18:57

Well, continuing the retro theme right the way back two centuries, when there was a real republican sentiment ....

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 18:57

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-uk-farmers-standards-us-meat-market-stanley-johnson_uk_59d72cade4b0f6eed34f71c0?
How Brexit Could Force UK Farmers To Lower Standards To Compete With US Meat Market
Chlorine-washed chicken isn’t the only product that could enter the market.

The claims, which have been backed by passionate animal welfare advocate and former Tory MEPStanley Johnson,come amid a conference this week of international agriculture and livestock experts in London.

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BigChocFrenzy · 07/10/2017 18:58

If the hard right had schemed and Cameron couldn't keep them in line, Ok the govt falls

To me the Fixed Term Act was removing one of the few safeguards we have against hardline minority govts - foreseeably of that same hard right, as we have now - all to ensure the LDems had their 5 years in govt

He had much better options: insisting on PR within 6 months, as I suggested

woman11017 · 07/10/2017 19:00

I think a little unfair to criticise Clegg for that one
In theory FTPA was to mitigate against the uncertainties of a coalition, in a time when it looked like the two main parties were losing ground. Was it also a defence against the UKIPs who seemed in the ascendance then?