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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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Peregrina · 07/10/2017 22:05

Or what if we crash out somehow with a marvelous deal, but in the process we lose N Ireland? Will that count as a success?

Peregrina · 07/10/2017 22:07

The reaction to Mays pledge to build more houses was virtually unanimously to insist they were only for 'British' people.

When you ask them what they would do for the people of N Ireland, who can chose to hold Irish passports, they go quiet.

artisancraftbeer · 07/10/2017 22:12

I suspect rather horrifyingly that many English people don't give a toss about Northern Ireland and would be quite happy to lose it.

I suspect more people would be more upset if the derailment of the peace process led to bombs on the mainland again but only to that extent because it isn't England's problem that the Irish all fight each other all the time*

  • this is not my view. I have heard it expressed, from people nominally well educated who don't appear to have studied any history at all, and aren't interested in Cromwell, or WilliamnMary. Even the potato famine is dismissed as incompetent farming... it is really really hard to underestimate ignorance on this.
RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 22:32

Jess Phillips‏*@jessphillips*

Theresa Mays council house plans would mean 8 houses per year per council. More than 8 people needing a home came to my office today

(From earlier this week).

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RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 22:35

Has everyone seen this already? time to join the Tories and vote for Amber Rudd, I suppose.

Amber Rudd who has done what May told her to whilst in the Home Office including breeching court orders to deport someone illegally.

And she's the best option?!

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Holliewantstobehot · 07/10/2017 22:37

Yes but there is so much ignorance on so many levels its tiring. I have actually had someone say they thought we had already left the EU and were surprised when I explained we were still a member.

Anyway just to amuse you all. When I was a child my parents belonged to an american style baptist church. Apparently it is predicted that a member state will leave the EU but then rejoin. The downside being this will immediately preceed the apocalypse. Grin

The issue with joining the tories is that you are then giving them money to orchestrate a better election campaign. But then the trouble with our system is that 100,000 people could indeed influence the direction of the country. We really need an overhaul of our parliament. But then I want PR so I suppose I would feel like that.

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 22:39

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/07/theresa-may-secret-advice-brexit-eu?CMP=share_btn_tw
Theresa May under pressure over ‘secret advice’ on halting Brexit
Prime minister is sent FOI request to publish legal guidance thought to argue that UK can stop EU divorce process at any time

Theresa May is under pressure to publish secret legal advice that is believed to state that parliament could still stop Brexit before the end of March 2019 if MPs judge that a change of mind is in the national interest. The move comes as concern grows that exit talks with Brussels are heading for disaster.

Will go the same way as the immigration studies in the Coalition and the impact assessments.

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RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 22:40

order-order.com/2017/10/07/whip-withdrawn-tory-meps-voted-british-interests/
Whip Withdrawn From Tory MEPs Who Voted Against British Interests

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thecatfromjapan · 07/10/2017 22:48

RTB Indeed, there really aren't many good choices, are there?

Well. I've read your link, *RTB. I'm now finding that I have a list of favourite tories. Has anyone else seen the Michael Heseltine interview being tweeted by C4? (No link. Sorry.)

And, yes, I agree that Brexit information is not widely spread in the general population. Which is a form of propaganda, really.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/10/2017 00:02

Oho, this reminds me of Farage / UKIP MEP financial problems:

Daniel Hannan is the Secretary-General of the Alliance of Conservatives and Reformists in Europe (ACRE)
This group has been ordered.to repay €617k of EU funding to the EU Parliament
because it had been "used to fund events promoting national parties" which is against the subsidy rules.

https://euobserver.com/tickers/139186

BigChocFrenzy · 08/10/2017 00:04

Do Tory MEPs have the whip withdrawn for finanical shenanigans ? Hmm

mathanxiety · 08/10/2017 01:47

Thanks for the new thread RTB!

I want to repost this link from the last one - Dutch journo returning to the Netherlands tells it straight. I don't know where to begin with C&Ping points he made but this one is really to the point:
Why would you allow a handful of billionaires to poison your national conversation with disinformation—either directly through the tabloids they own, or indirectly, by using those newspapers to intimidate the public broadcaster? Why would you allow them to use their papers to build up and co-opt politicians peddling those lies? Why would you let them get away with this stuff about “foreign judges” and the need to “take back control” when Britain’s own public opinion is routinely manipulated by five or six unaccountable rich white men, themselves either foreigners or foreign-domiciled?
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/how-i-learnt-to-loathe-england

Many thanks to whoever posted it in the first place.

mathanxiety · 08/10/2017 01:48

I think I may have been Dutch in a past life...

mathanxiety · 08/10/2017 06:41

I suspect rather horrifyingly that many English people don't give a toss about Northern Ireland and would be quite happy to lose it.

I agree with you Artisancraftbeer, that the level of ignorance on NI (and Ireland too) is astounding.

However, I think that despite ignorance/ NI being a complete aferthought/ there would be a kneejerk reaction against the prospect of NI leaving the Union. Such is the strength of English nationalism, xenophobia, begrudgery of others including the Irish, and pugilistic contrariness for its own sake (all of which we have seen in the Leave positions on pretty much everything) that no proposal that makes sense from any perspective would be entertained.

DrivenToDespair · 08/10/2017 07:27

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Peregrina · 08/10/2017 07:38

However, causing the loss of N Ireland, or a restart of the Troubles would surely have to be perceived as a failure, however 'wonderful' it was for the rest of the UK?

Tugtupite · 08/10/2017 07:51

Britain elects, Westminster voting intention just now...
Labour 42 (+4)
Cons 37 (-2)

PattyPenguin · 08/10/2017 07:55

So it would be OK for NI to reunite with the Republic of Ireland, which you will recall was one of the Three Kingdoms from the 16th century, and only became independent after many years of struggle and considerable violence, but independence calls in Catalonia are nasty reactionary, nationalistic rubbish.

Have I got that right?

BigChocFrenzy · 08/10/2017 07:59

(paywall) Ukip loses access to €1.5m of EU funds

< they really are crap at organising and dodgy at dealing with money - very bad qualities in any politicians >

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukip-loses-access-to-1-5m-of-eu-funds-3wxgzs2br

The Ukip-dominated political grouping Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe (ADDE) became insolvent in April.

It has now missed the deadline to register for EU funding for next year, which could cost it €1.5 million.

“The ADDE has not registered with the independent authority for political parties and foundations for recognition for 2018,
which is a prerequisite for receiving financing from the European parliament,” an official said.
....
Since November the ADDE has been investigated over how EU funds were used after auditors found €500,000 was wrongly spent on EU referendum opinion polling by Ukip.

The EU parliament demanded that €172,655 be repaid, pushing the ADDE into insolvency.
....
Ukip and its allies still have their main funding source, the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD) group of Eurosceptic and far-right MEPs,
which received €5.7 million last year.

Nigel Farage is the EFDD president, which gives him a prominent platform in the EU assembly and extra funding for his office.

< no wonder the EU are so keen to ensure there will be no more UK MEPs
⁃ UKIP are the largest group in the large UK allocation of MEPs; they are driving the (small) far right grouping in the EU Parliament

  • which will become much smaller when the UK leaves. And they get rid of Farage, who is outrageously rude to elected MEPs in their Parliament >
MangoSplit · 08/10/2017 07:59

Place marking

BigChocFrenzy · 08/10/2017 08:09

NI is an artificial construct, created by the then British govt splitting Ireland , after refusing to accept the democratic wishes of Ireland to become independent.
Ireland only became part of the UK by brutal conquest - and was kept that way by centuries of brutal oppression
As with other conquered colonies, Britain sent "settlers" to Ireland, who took land and helped oppress the indigenous population

Imagine if white settlers in Rhodesia had been allowed to keep part of the country at independence and continue to oppress a black African minority.
A few years of supposedly equal rights, decades later, would not be enough for me to criticise "nationalism" for wanting a united Zimbabwe.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/10/2017 08:13

Of course, in the rl case of Rhodesia, now Zimbabwe, the settlers ruled the whole country after declaring UDI from Britain.
Britain has repeatedly given in to settlers and refused to support the rights of indigenous people in its colonies

Springbreeze · 08/10/2017 08:42

Bigchoc. Indeed. And just like in Rhodesia/SAfrica the DUP refuse to compromise because their position lacks legitimacy and when you start from a position where all power is with one group any reasonable compromise weakens their position.

PattyPenguin · 08/10/2017 08:45

Some reading of Spanish history might prove enlightening, specifically the 18th century War of Spanish Succession.

There is nothing inherently natural or moral about member states in the EU as currently constituted.

It should be remembered, also, that Catalonia was heavily Republican in the Spanish Civil War. And that it was the small independent shop businesses that closed their doors in protest at the actions of the Madrid government and the Guardia Civil, not large chains, while banks moved their legal HQs out of Catalonia. So much for it being a campaign by the wealthy.

woman11017 · 08/10/2017 08:47
Hmm
Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?